This will be short, sweet, and absolutely straight to the point.
The model guidance in a tight cluster in regards to the global guidance. The UKMET today has trended in the direction of the GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC ... and apparently looking more like a Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic threat ... the tropical models are a little more spread out, but the GFDL is the preferred track model tonight.
The overall situation right now, the globals are looking a little more like that they are finally latching onto the pattern somewhat. However, the bottom line is this ... there's still plenty of time and I choose to wait until the high-altitude soundings are input into the model runs before I have any confidence to even speculate at this point.
SF
Hurricane Isabel Prognostic Discussion
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Stormsfury
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