A sign of Isabels future track
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Josephine96
Ok time for post number 400 lol
Chris, as a concerned fellow Central Floridian.. where did you get those numbers.. about 40 percent for Florida..
0 likes
-
chris_fit
- Category 5
- Posts: 3222
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Well, basically outa my @$$ .. hehe... naaa
Here is how I look at it....
It's either gonna turn hard, or not turn at all (ridge or trough).... if it turns north, NC is the primary target, if not it's coming straight at FL.... I'm thinking it would have turned by now more towards the north if it was going to at all... The ridge i believe is going to be stronger than projected, the sooner Izzy turns north the less likely hood of FL landfall (as the 2nd trough will shoot it even more north) if it doesnt turn soon, ridge will keep it south (trough will not be far enough south to impact Izzy).
Keep In Mind I am extremely Novice :-P
~Chris
Here is how I look at it....
It's either gonna turn hard, or not turn at all (ridge or trough).... if it turns north, NC is the primary target, if not it's coming straight at FL.... I'm thinking it would have turned by now more towards the north if it was going to at all... The ridge i believe is going to be stronger than projected, the sooner Izzy turns north the less likely hood of FL landfall (as the 2nd trough will shoot it even more north) if it doesnt turn soon, ridge will keep it south (trough will not be far enough south to impact Izzy).
Keep In Mind I am extremely Novice :-P
~Chris
0 likes
-
Josephine96
-
ColdFront77
-
Josephine96
-
ColdFront77
vbhoutex wrote:I have been looking at the sat loops for a while. I am no professional, but what I see right now in the satellite loops disturbs me a little. Call me a wishcaster if you want, but it appears to me the trough to the N has bypassed Isabel completely and that the ridge is building back in. Wven the Henri remnants appear to be of little consequence and will be inland in 36 hrs. max. None of the other features I see appear to be having an effect on her either and she is moving straigh W or wobbling WSW occasionally. There is still no hint of the expectes WNW start which was progged to begin by now and at the latest in about 12 hours. Looking further west and seeing the trough that came through here earlier today(thank you for a GORGEOUS AFTERNOON!!!), it appears to me that it will also be out of the way-to far N- to be of any effect either by the time Isabel gets close to the East coast. Maybe some of this will cause a slight weakness in the ridge, but I am having my doubts at this time. What does this mean? If I am right-AND I PRAY I AM NOT!-I do not see the turn happening anytime before a landfall along the SE coast no furhter North than Southern Georgia and I think that may be stretching it. With all this said I do realize I am reaching out far ahead of what is easily prognosticated. AS ALWAYS WITH HURRICANES WE WAIT AND SEE.
I agree with you, David. The trough is too far northwest of Isabel to get "her" into the 'weakness.' I am not sure why a lot of forecasters aren't taking the long distance between them into account.
0 likes