Are you on the East Coast thinking about the "get batteries and water" routine for Isabel?
If it's a Cat 4 or 5 (or higher 3), is anybody planning to stay put if they're in the warning area? Stock up the car to flee or stock the pantry?
Images of the storm at perfect Cat 5 monstrosity shortened my prep list to "get ready to get away."
I'm guessing/hoping it will weaken a lot if it's going above 30-35N. If it keeps coming for Florida, I'd guess it stays a monster.
My make/break point is probably when it's near 75W if it's not north of 28N.
Preparing to flee? -- Discussion?
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KeyLargoDave
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Pebbles
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Well speaking for my Mom and Dad they have gotten their hurricane kit together and bought plywood last night. They have discussed what they would do and basically came up with if it still looks like a 4 or 5 (which a 5 is probably unlikely and maybe even for a strong 3) they will "pack up and get out of dodge"
And if she doesn't come their way..well then they have their supplies already for the next one that does.
I personally feel everyone along the east coast should be prepared like this ...it doesn't really take much time and saves much worry and frustration when having to do it when the lines are long and the least bread on the shelf is being fought over.
Another good thing we did when living in NC is keeping the gas tank topped off constantly during the last week of a possible approaching storm...that way if the gas lines really got nasty..we didn't have to wait in that long gas pump line if we didn't want to.
And if she doesn't come their way..well then they have their supplies already for the next one that does.
I personally feel everyone along the east coast should be prepared like this ...it doesn't really take much time and saves much worry and frustration when having to do it when the lines are long and the least bread on the shelf is being fought over.
Another good thing we did when living in NC is keeping the gas tank topped off constantly during the last week of a possible approaching storm...that way if the gas lines really got nasty..we didn't have to wait in that long gas pump line if we didn't want to.
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I'm on FL's west coast, but still paying attention. As a life long FL resident, what always 'frosts' me is everyone (mostly 'new' residents) panic and strip the shelves; but no one bothers to bring in their lawn furniture or garbage cans! I've been doing hurricane prep for over 40 years. What is going to kill me or my family is not high winds or water, but some idiot's garbage can! Sorry, just a little rant.
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obx_storm_watcher
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paradoxsixnine
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Betrock wrote:I'm on FL's west coast, but still paying attention. As a life long FL resident, what always 'frosts' me is everyone (mostly 'new' residents) panic and strip the shelves; but no one bothers to bring in their lawn furniture or garbage cans! I've been doing hurricane prep for over 40 years. What is going to kill me or my family is not high winds or water, but some idiot's garbage can! Sorry, just a little rant.
You know, that's an excellent point, and I'm glad you ranted!
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JetMaxx
Well, if it indeed heads for North Carolina or Virginia....it's extremely unlikely to be any stronger than 130-135 mph (as that isn't bad enough).
The record storm for Cape Hatteras and Virginia Beach was the "Great Atlantic Hurricane" of September 1944....130 mph and a central pressure measured at 27.97"/ 947 mb at Hatteras (Gloria in 1985 had a lower pressure...942 mb, but winds were only 115-120 mph at Diamond Shoals light, and less than 100 at Hatteras). The 1944 hurricane produced 150 mph wind gusts at Cape Henry, Virginia.
The record hurricane for Long Island, NY was the "Long Island Express" of September 1938....946 mb at landfall about 50 miles east of Manhattan (where northerly 120 mph gusts were measured atop the Empire State Building 1200' above the ground). Sustained winds were in the 125-130 mph range over much of Long Island and Southern New England east of the hurricane's track. Sustained winds of 121 mph with a peak gust of 186 mph were measured at the Blue Hills observatory south of Boston; and other locations caught gusts in excess of 150 mph. This hurricane was moving at an exceptional rate of forward speed...estimated to have been moving north at 56 mph at time of landfall on Long Island -- a major reason it didn't weaken much after crossing the Gulf Stream east of Cape Hatteras into cooler sst's (it wasn't over the colder water that long moving by so fast). It's believed as the hurricane passed 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras, sustained winds were about 140 mph and central pressure 940 mb/ 27.75" (Hatteras measured a 61 mph gust from the north well west of the eye).
In the Wilmington-Cape Fear-Myrtle Beach area, the record hurricane was hurricane Hazel in October 1954. It had been a blazing hot summer/ early fall across the southeast (95° in ATL on October 5th), and sst were still at September levels...contributing to the severity of the late season hurricane. Winds were estimated at 135-140 mph with gusts measured at 150+ mph along the North Carolina coast. The central pressure at landfall was 938 mb/ 27.70".
Of course, everyone should remember hurricane Hugo from 1989....the record storm for South Carolina at 934 mb/ 27.58" and 135-140 mph sustained winds.
The record hurricane for the Georgia Coast was the great hurricane of 1898...now re-evaluated by the NOAA HURDAT project as a category 4 hurricane...938 mb and 135 mph at landfall near St Mary's (Camden county) on October 2nd. The storm surge reached 19' at the Sapelo Island lighthouse, and downtown Brunswick was 5-6' deep in water (meaning a 13-14' storm surge).
There's never been a confirmed cat-5 hurricane to strike the Atlantic Coast north of south Florida...and Hazel is the farthest north landfalling cat-4 of record (although the 1938 "Long Island Express" was definitely of cat-4 intensity as it passed east of North Carolina...and almost a cat-4 on Long Island, NY.
The record storm for Cape Hatteras and Virginia Beach was the "Great Atlantic Hurricane" of September 1944....130 mph and a central pressure measured at 27.97"/ 947 mb at Hatteras (Gloria in 1985 had a lower pressure...942 mb, but winds were only 115-120 mph at Diamond Shoals light, and less than 100 at Hatteras). The 1944 hurricane produced 150 mph wind gusts at Cape Henry, Virginia.
The record hurricane for Long Island, NY was the "Long Island Express" of September 1938....946 mb at landfall about 50 miles east of Manhattan (where northerly 120 mph gusts were measured atop the Empire State Building 1200' above the ground). Sustained winds were in the 125-130 mph range over much of Long Island and Southern New England east of the hurricane's track. Sustained winds of 121 mph with a peak gust of 186 mph were measured at the Blue Hills observatory south of Boston; and other locations caught gusts in excess of 150 mph. This hurricane was moving at an exceptional rate of forward speed...estimated to have been moving north at 56 mph at time of landfall on Long Island -- a major reason it didn't weaken much after crossing the Gulf Stream east of Cape Hatteras into cooler sst's (it wasn't over the colder water that long moving by so fast). It's believed as the hurricane passed 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras, sustained winds were about 140 mph and central pressure 940 mb/ 27.75" (Hatteras measured a 61 mph gust from the north well west of the eye).
In the Wilmington-Cape Fear-Myrtle Beach area, the record hurricane was hurricane Hazel in October 1954. It had been a blazing hot summer/ early fall across the southeast (95° in ATL on October 5th), and sst were still at September levels...contributing to the severity of the late season hurricane. Winds were estimated at 135-140 mph with gusts measured at 150+ mph along the North Carolina coast. The central pressure at landfall was 938 mb/ 27.70".
Of course, everyone should remember hurricane Hugo from 1989....the record storm for South Carolina at 934 mb/ 27.58" and 135-140 mph sustained winds.
The record hurricane for the Georgia Coast was the great hurricane of 1898...now re-evaluated by the NOAA HURDAT project as a category 4 hurricane...938 mb and 135 mph at landfall near St Mary's (Camden county) on October 2nd. The storm surge reached 19' at the Sapelo Island lighthouse, and downtown Brunswick was 5-6' deep in water (meaning a 13-14' storm surge).
There's never been a confirmed cat-5 hurricane to strike the Atlantic Coast north of south Florida...and Hazel is the farthest north landfalling cat-4 of record (although the 1938 "Long Island Express" was definitely of cat-4 intensity as it passed east of North Carolina...and almost a cat-4 on Long Island, NY.
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Anonymous
I'm located in northern Virginia, west of the Bay, west of the Potomac River.
I think if Izzy makes a run at Virginia, my principal concern won't be storm surge. I'm 70 feet above MSL. But high winds, tornadoes, excessively heavy rains, I will have to worry about.
Northern Virginia has had a LOT of rain this spring and summer, in addition to MUCH heavy rain and snow last winter.
Last night we received ANOTHER 2.7 inches from the remnants of what was once Henri.
The ground is saturated. We have already had over 40 inches of rain so far this year. Norm rainfall for an entire year here is about 44 inches.
We get all that rain from Izzy plus some high winds, and we will see many felled trees.
Can you say "Power outages on an unbelievable scale?"
Plus the flooding. The ground can't take any more water. It's muddy here. This is Mosquito City, and we are cutting our grass every 5 days, as we have been, more or less, since April. We get more rain, trees are gonna fall in the winds and we are going to suffer flooding that hasn't been seen around here since Agnes in 1972.
When a major 'cane like Izzy hits land, her winds die down, but all that energy doesn't just disappear; it gets converted to heavy rain. Torrential rain of an unimaginable magnitude.
That water WILL NOT sink into the ground. It will run off, into streams, rivers, which will very quickly overtop their banks and flood homes, businesses, etc.
Plus there will be the inevitable tornadoes.
I think I am gonna make a run for the high ground. Read: Appalachian Mts.
What do you think happens when a hurricane's moisture hits the mountains?
The orography tends to cause MORE rain to fall. So the western NC mountains, the western VA mountains, and other states' mountains will get inundated with possibly feet of rain.
Can you say, "Mudslides?" All that rain will sluice down the steep mountainsides and surge down river. I really feel for all those poor mountain folk. Their roads will be mud; they probably already are muddy from all the recent rains. The rivers will rise very rapidly and without mercy; anyone caught unawares will be swept downstream, smashed against rocks, other debris and flotsam, and I don't give a nickel for their chances of survival. Towns will be destroyed.
Anyone remember Agnes or Camille's rains?
Cuz we are all about to get a Refresher course, and you either Pass or you're Dead. Simple as that.
Because if Izzy slams into Va or NC, that is what we will get. Attendance is compulsory.
-Jeb
I think if Izzy makes a run at Virginia, my principal concern won't be storm surge. I'm 70 feet above MSL. But high winds, tornadoes, excessively heavy rains, I will have to worry about.
Northern Virginia has had a LOT of rain this spring and summer, in addition to MUCH heavy rain and snow last winter.
Last night we received ANOTHER 2.7 inches from the remnants of what was once Henri.
The ground is saturated. We have already had over 40 inches of rain so far this year. Norm rainfall for an entire year here is about 44 inches.
We get all that rain from Izzy plus some high winds, and we will see many felled trees.
Can you say "Power outages on an unbelievable scale?"
Plus the flooding. The ground can't take any more water. It's muddy here. This is Mosquito City, and we are cutting our grass every 5 days, as we have been, more or less, since April. We get more rain, trees are gonna fall in the winds and we are going to suffer flooding that hasn't been seen around here since Agnes in 1972.
When a major 'cane like Izzy hits land, her winds die down, but all that energy doesn't just disappear; it gets converted to heavy rain. Torrential rain of an unimaginable magnitude.
That water WILL NOT sink into the ground. It will run off, into streams, rivers, which will very quickly overtop their banks and flood homes, businesses, etc.
Plus there will be the inevitable tornadoes.
I think I am gonna make a run for the high ground. Read: Appalachian Mts.
What do you think happens when a hurricane's moisture hits the mountains?
The orography tends to cause MORE rain to fall. So the western NC mountains, the western VA mountains, and other states' mountains will get inundated with possibly feet of rain.
Can you say, "Mudslides?" All that rain will sluice down the steep mountainsides and surge down river. I really feel for all those poor mountain folk. Their roads will be mud; they probably already are muddy from all the recent rains. The rivers will rise very rapidly and without mercy; anyone caught unawares will be swept downstream, smashed against rocks, other debris and flotsam, and I don't give a nickel for their chances of survival. Towns will be destroyed.
Anyone remember Agnes or Camille's rains?
Cuz we are all about to get a Refresher course, and you either Pass or you're Dead. Simple as that.
Because if Izzy slams into Va or NC, that is what we will get. Attendance is compulsory.
-Jeb
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