Help!?!

[debbiet]

LOL I think I'll just go to bed now, because I'm getting so much confusing information. One person is forcasting a Cat 3/4 hurricane at landfall and then the very next post is forcasting a Cat 1 at landfall as being generous. Quite a dispartity and I just don't get it. I've truly enjoyed watching this board and am really impressed with the reasonings and discussion...but I guess I don't see how everyone can be looking at the same things and come up with such totally different scenarios...Since the storm forcast track is going right over my house as it is now...I guess I just keep hoping for some continuity. :?

[jaysonx]

I'll tell ya, ive been in the same situation before and everyone has their own opinion, but in the end its usually best to just listen to the NHC, as that is most likely what happens.

[wayoutfront]

http://wrel.com/modelmap.htm

I am confused as well
I agree you guys are great, so would one you tell me why the discussions keep saying she go farther east but the models seem to sliding west each run.

[ncweatherwizard]

I'll go ahead and tell you that I am a conservative forecaster when it comes to intensity, and when I miss intensity forecast, I am usually too low. So if you go by that, you might get a Cat. 2 out of the deal should I be wrong--which is reasonably possible with this intensity forecast.

[debbiet]

I guess you're right jaysonx...they've been really accurate so far. It doesn't make much difference...whatever happens is going to happen regardless of opinions. It's just hard not to get so caught up in it all...I'm a control freak, so the lack of control is quite frustrating. :-?

[JetMaxx]

Debbie...when in doubt, believe what the National Hurricane Center is advising you...and your local EMA/ civil defense.

They get paid to provide the best and most accurate forecasts to save lives....while I post forecasts as my hobby....because I enjoy studying the weather and storms so much (since I was 12....three decades ago).

All I ask is if the National Hurricane Center issues a hurricane warning for your area....and your advised by officials in your area to evacuate....please do. I've been a severe storm spotter for the National Weather Service since 1982. My main concern is saving lives---WHY I advise anyone living in Isabel's projected path to listen to OFFICIAL sources of information....and the National Hurricane Center is the best and most reliable source for hurricane information on earth.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

[Deenac813]

I think the best advice is to prepare for a CAT 4/5 & then be happy if you dont get one.. it is alwas better to be prepared than to not.

[Colin]

Hurricane Watches may go out today...that'll probably be the first time I've ever been in a Hurricane Watch...