HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES
Good morning everyone. Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel have reached the North Carolina coast early this morning and conditions will only worsen throughout the day today as the eye approaches and makes landfall south of Hatteras in about 2 hours or so. 70 mph wind gusts were reported in Elizabeth City, North Carolina recently. A wind gust to 63 mph was reported in Virginia Beach, VA recently. A wind gusts to 60-70 mph was reported recently in Atlantic Beach, North Carolina. Hatteras reported 79 mph gusts. Ocracoke reported 85 mph gusts recently. Sustained Hurricane force winds will reach the North Carolina coast later this morning, then reach southeast Virginia later this afternoon. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the entire North Carolina coast from Cape Fear northward up to Chincoteague, Virginia. This includes the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward and the Outer Banks. Cities and communities in the hurricane warning include Morehead City, Wrightsville Beach, Cape Hatteras, Virginia Beach and Norfolk, Virginia. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. Further north, the hurricane watches in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac have been changed to tropical storm warnings. In addition a tropical storm warning is in effect from Cape Fear to South Santee River, South Carolina and north of Chicoteague, Virginia to Moriches Inlet, New York including the Delaware Bay. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. All preparations should have already been rushed to completion in the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
HIGH TIDES TODAY AND TONIGHT
Tide levels in portions of the Mid Atlantic coast could exceed record levels established in the Big Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of 1933. Hurricane Isabel is so large and so significant to this portion of the east coast and it will likely be making landfall at high tide, which aggreviates the situation. The following are the high tide and tidal departures from various areas along the Mid Atlantic coast and the Chesapeake Bay.
At Sewells point, the first high tide will be at 3:10 PM EDT with tides running 9.5-10.5 feet above MLLW. The second high tide will be at 3:36 AM EDT at 4.0-5.0 feet above MLLW.
At Gloucester Point, the first high tide will be at 3:21 PM EDT with tides running 8.5-9.5 feet above MLLW. The second high tide will be at 3:47 AM EDT with levels at 4.5-5.5 feet above MLLW.
At Waschpreagne, the first high tide will be at 2:09 PM EDT with levels at 8.0-9.0 feet above MLLW. The second high tide will be at 2:30 AM EDT Friday with levels 5.5-6.5 feet above MLLW.
At Ocean City, Maryland, the first high tide will occur at 1:40 PM EDT with levels 6.5-7.5 feet above MLLW. The second high tide will be at 2 AM EDT Friday morning with levels 6.0-7.0 feet above MLLW.
In the Virginia Beach area, high tide will occur before 2 PM EDT Thursday afternoon. At 9 feet above normal tide levels, the ocean reaches the seawall and floods hotels on the ocean front at Virginia Beach. Also keep an eye south of VAB in Sandbridge where houses are right on the beach. Some of those homes could go into the ocean later today!!!!
11 AM ADVISORY ON ISABEL
At 11 AM EDT, Isabel has held it's own and remains a strong category 2 hurricane on the saffir simpson scale. At 11 AM EDT, the center of Isabel was located about 55 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina at 34.4 north, 75.7 west. Movement is towards the northwest at a forward speed of 18 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed through the next 24-36 hours. This will bring Isabel towards the Cape Hatteras area by mid afternoon Thursday. If isabel moves more towards Morehead City, landfall would be closer to noon EDT Thursday. Right now I'm thinking in between those two areas where landfall will occur for early afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Isabel is expected to maintain it's present strength of category 2 until landfall.
Isabel is a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 115 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward 345 miles.
Minimum central pressure is now 956 mb or 28.23 inches on the latest recon report.
Storm surge flooding of 6-10 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near or to the right of where Isabel makes landfall along the Carolina coastline. Storm surge flooding of 4-8 feet above normal tide levels can be expected over the southern Chesapeake Bay and tidal potomac river basin and adjacent rivers. Storm Surge flooding of 6-9 feet above normal tide levels can be expected along the Virginia Atlantic coast including Virginia Beach, Virginia. Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches is expected in areas in the path of Isabel. Isolated tornadoes are also possible particularly in the right front quadrant of the circulation in the outer feeder rain bands, particularly after midnight along the Virginia and North Carolina coast. A tornado watch is in effect along he North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland coast until 8 PM EDT. Additional tornado watches are likelt in Delaware, north central Maryland, northern Virginia, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania later this afternoon through tonight. Most of the tornadoes while weak will be rain wrapped.
Once again at 11 AM EDT, Isabel is centered at 34.4 north, 75.7 west. Movement nw at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds 100 mph. Minimum central pressure 956 mb/28.23 inches. The next advisories will be issued at 2 pm and 5 pm this afternoon.
Jim
11 AM EDT ADVISORY, 1-2 PM Landfall expected
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