It's Not "Fluctuating", It's WEAKENING

#1 Postby **abajan** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:31 am

By now it should be clear to most what's happening. Maximum sustained winds will probably be down another 5 mph (to 135 mph) by 5:00 PM.

Have another look:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

When compared to a few days ago, does that look like a healthy system?

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:34 am

But if you read the discussion they expect fluctuations and warm waters ahead may strenghen it again but not to a cat 5 anymore and unforfunatly a cat 3 at landfall hopefully much less than that..

#3 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:46 am

Agreed, but she sure does look beat down compared to what she used to look like. Intensity can be very tricky in this area with several warm then cold jetties and the gulf stream.

wharrell · #4 Postby **wharrell** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:18 am

This goes to show all of those that say "A Cat 5 Makes it's own envrionment', etc that NO STORM can sustain the effect of a trough.

Isabel will be a CAT 2 a best when it gets up off North Carolina.

mf_dolphin · #5 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:20 am

Just remember that she can build back her strength just as quickly as she lost it. She's still a very powerful storm so I hope everyone in the path is still making their preparations. When she does pick up steam heading north it could be a fairly quick trip.

#6 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:36 am

I'm surprised it has stayed this strong for this long a period.
I think it will be a cat 2 at landfall.

Aquawind · #7 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:38 am

I agree on the weakening..no doubt..hope it continues..
It ia amazing how difficult it is to totally dissipate a Stacked system..much less the LLCC..

Bring on Mr. Shear!!!

#8 Postby **abajan** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:08 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:Just remember that she can build back her strength just as quickly as she lost it. She's still a very powerful storm so I hope everyone in the path is still making their preparations. When she does pick up steam heading north it could be a fairly quick trip.

But how many systems over the years have you seen regain their strength after going into a weakening trend? Granted, it's prudent to still be prepared for any eventuality.

mf_dolphin · #9 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:22 pm

I've seen plenty go through a tough time and still come back. As long as they get out of the hostile environment and back into a favorable one. I'm not saying she'll ever get back to CAT5 mind you but I see no reason she won't get through this cycle and rebuild some.

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:26 pm

she's weakening so much that her pressure has actually fallen during the last 90 minutes

wrkh99 · #11 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:28 pm

Derek whats the new pressure?

#12 Postby **abajan** » Thu Sep 18, 2003 7:30 pm

Trader Ron wrote:I think it will be a cat 2 at landfall.

Take a bow, Trader Ron. You were correct.

It's Not "Fluctuating", It's WEAKENING

It's Not "Fluctuating", It's WEAKENING

Trough Beating Isabel Down Big Time

Isabel

Re: Isabel

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