Juan,Kate, and Larry this weekend?

[Vortex]

Juan-no problem. Kate-jury is still out on this one and Larry possible near the yucatan channel Sunday/Monday so alot to watch this weekend. S Fl deluge on the way either way...Even if Larry doesn't pan out the southern peninsula is in for copious amounts of rainfall the nex 5 days...Probably 5-10" in many areas before all is said and done. Expect flood watches to be issued on Sat/Sun for portions of Fl.

[cycloneye]

At least Juan and Kate this weekend because if something forms in the western caribbean it will be next week if it does so at all.

[Aquawind]

I Agree Luis..

Tampa Discussion Clip 1:30pm


.SHORT TERM(FRI-SAT)...A RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW
AND INVERTED TYPE SURFACE TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERS WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SERN GULF. MODELS THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES...
HOWEVER THE ETA IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/SERN GULF IN 60 HOURS.
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AM INCLINED
TO IGNORE THE ETA SOLUTION FOR NOW AND LEAN TOWARD THE GFS. IN ANY
EVENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE (PW'S IN THE 1.8-2+" RANGE) CONTINUING TO
ADVECT NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN ON LOW LEVEL SE-SLY WIND FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
ADDITION TO THE SEA BREEZE...WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY CATEGORY POPS FOR
ALL ZONES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION MAX TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
BELOW CLIMO LEVELS WITH MID 80S EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE
TEMPS ARE SIMILAR...SO WILL USE A BLEND.

.EXTENDED(SUN-WED)...MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT TO SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER
FOR SCT POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE
WELL ESTABLISHED IN MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ON MONDAY WITH ONLY REAL
CHANCE OF PRECIP BEING ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA...AND THEN ONLY
ISOLATED. GFS KEEPS A SURFACE TROUGH PINNED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AS THE
STRONG SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT MOISTURE TOO SCARCE TO
SEE ANYTHING ABOVE 20 PERCENT COVERAGE.

TUE-WED A BIT LESS CLEAR AS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS POISED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GFS/MRF DEPICT A PRETTY GOOD BULGE IN THE
MOISTURE/PRECIP FIELDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WILL OPT
TO IGNORE THE INCREASE AT THIS TIME AND WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS TO
SEE HOW THE SITUATION PANS OUT. HAVE DECREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A
BIT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT IF TROUGH DOES DEVELOP IN GULF AS
DEPICTED WE COULD SEE 20+ KTS IN COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK.

[Lindaloo]

Lord give me the strength.

[Lowpressure]

Juan and Kate look good, but Larry is questionable at best. However, experience has shown me that last season model hints of development in the NW Carib usually does pan out. You look at it now and say 'no way" and four days later it is a TS.

[opera ghost]

Juan Kate and Larry- sounds like the beginning of a bad joke.....

I expect Kate to have a rather violent temper and to cause mass destruction in truely unpredictable fashions this year- if my sis-in-law Kate is any indication

But I dont' know any Juan or Larry's... *laughs*

[Lowpressure]

opera ghost- I am with you, my 6 month old daughter is Katie, and if that is any indication-Stand by!!

[GulfBreezer]

Lord give me the strength.

and me too Lord!! :?

[Josephine96]

Juan must have blew up.. he was a weak TS at 11 am.. Thank god he's just a fish except for Bermuda... Pray for the Bermudans that Juan turns away

[WeatherEmperor]

Just look how fast the tropics re-exploded(if there is even such a word) Juan and Kate are of little to no concern for us here in the US however IF and I stress the word, IF Larry forms, then it could be perhaps the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.