LARRY #3 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 020842
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003

THE CENTER OF LARRY IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES AND THE
GIVEN POSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI. HOWEVER...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE TROPICAL WITH BANDING FEATURES
PRIMARLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE MEASURED
EARLIER. A SHIP IN THE AREA REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 46 KNOTS AT
03Z. THE OUTFLOW IS NOT RESTRICTED AT THIS TIME BUT LARRY LACKS AN
INNER CORE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED FOLLOWING CONTINUITY.

LARRY IS MEANDERING AND CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITHIN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. MANY OTHER CYCLONES HAVE
REMAINED STATIONARY IN THAT AREA IN THE PAST. BECAUSE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. IN FACT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT
LARRY WILL DISSIPATE IN SITU BUT IN GENERAL THEY SUGGEST SLOW
MOTIONS IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE WITH LARRY BUT MOST LIKELY...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AND IT COULD WEAKEN IF THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. NEVERTHERLESS...LARRY
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT COAST OF MEXICO
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE OIL RIGS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 21.0N 94.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 94.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 95.0W 60 KT