Models and AFDs........GOM Developement in NOV

[KatDaddy]

This may just be a year where we see tropical development in NOV. It does happen......Kate 1985 is a prime example.

Here is an excerpt from the Shreveport AFD

OF INTEREST HOWEVER IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS TO MOVE
AN EASTERLY WAVE IN A WSW DIRECTION AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH A LOW MOVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY PROVE INTERESTING ESPECIALLY
IF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION ENSUES OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS...AS THE
RIDGE PATTERN MAY FAVOR STEERING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NW GULF
COAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. JUST TO KEEP IN THE BACK OF THE MIND...NO
CRYING WOLF.

[KatDaddy]

AFD discuss many different possibilities. Sounds like something is going to develop in the GOM


Miami AFD

PROBLEMS BEGIN TO ARISE SUNDAY AS MODELS
STILL CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING QUITE A SYSTEM OUT OF THE TUTT AND
REMNANTS OF NICHOLAS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. WILL FOLLOW TRENDS OF
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONSENSUS OF SURROUNDING OFFICES TO DOWNPLAY
SYSTEM SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO REQUIRES MONITORING TO BE
SURE. WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS/WINDS/POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE GULF AND FLOW WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ALL ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

Key West

SHORT RANGE FORECAST...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SE US WILL STRENGTHEN EASTERY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS BACK. MODELS SUGGEST
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING UNDER THE PR SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WEST.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS.
CURRENT PACKAGE HANDLES THIS FINE.

.MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE US AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM NEAR PR WILL HAVE NOWHERE ELSE TO GO BUT
WEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT NEAR THE KEYS BY
LATE SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT DIFFERS. TEND TO AGREE WITH
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AS PRESSURES ARE FALLING UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ALREADY...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT...EXCEPT TO NOTE THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE IT
TO TRACK WEST TOWARDS THE KEYS. WILL TREND POPS UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY
BUT HOLD OFF ON MAKING LARGE CHANGES.

Jackson

LOOKING AHEAD TO
NEXT WEEK...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF
ACCORDING TO GFS/UKMET. IN ANY CASE WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE
RETURN TUES/WEDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN BRINGING MID WEEK RAIN CHANCES.

New Orleans

GFS...UKMET AND
NOGAPS INDICATE A LOW DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AROUND 29N AND 66W. THEY SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH A THE RIDGE...CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
AND CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT. HPC DISPLAYS THIS FEATURE AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

Lake Charles

FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A TROPICAL WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF BY
ABOUT MID-WEEK. THE MRF ALSO DEPICTS A FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA BY WED/THURS. WILL INCLUDE POPS ON WED...BUT FROM THE FRONT AND
NOT THE WAVE AS IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY FOR SURE WHETHER OR NOT IT
WILL EVEN MAKE IT UP THIS FAR NORTH.

Houston-Galveston

TOWARD NEXT WEEK...THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF BRING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF FROM FL TOWARD TX. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS THE 500 MB HIGH
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TX COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE.

Brownsville

THE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE PATTERN
WILL OCCUR THE THE GULF WHERE LONGER RANGE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
PICK UP SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF NICHOLAS AND MOVE
THIS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY THE EVENING OF 11/03 (NEXT
MON.). WITH A VERY ELONGATED 5H TROUGH REMAINING ENCHORED OVER MUCH
OF THE LOWER 48 STATES...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
THIS FEATURE BEING INGESTED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY PULL IT NORTHWARDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

Corpus Christi

THE SUBSIDENT FLANK
OF A TUTT CYCLONE ACROSS THE GLFMEX TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY REDUCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE
WIND. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM UNTIL THERE IS GREATER
MODEL CONSENSUS.

[stormchazer]

Great info Katdaddy. I think this illustrates the great uncertainty in forecast going 36 hours and out. Chaos theory dictates, especially as it relates to weather, only a slight change in environment a way can blow even the most solid forecast away. The model consistency is certainly ominous and it appears there is a good possibility of a major tropical event next week in the GoM. We shall have to wait and see. :-?

[Rainband]

Is there a cold front coming down??? Jacksons AFD mentions one I guess we will have to wait and see..If anything develops and where it goes