Explosive development possible?

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hial2
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Explosive development possible?

#1 Postby hial2 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 1:49 pm

Boy, that low near Bermuda looks more impressive by the hour..What are the chances for rapid development before getting to the GOM?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Re: Explosive development possible?

#2 Postby stormchazer » Thu Oct 30, 2003 2:02 pm

hial2 wrote:Boy, that low near Bermuda looks more impressive by the hour..What are the chances for rapid development before getting to the GOM?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I guess if it is still cold core you could have an intense low development almost like an intense Nor'easter or a strong mesoscale convective complex. Not sure if things would be in place for rapid tropical development and I am very ignorant when it comes to Sub-tropical systems.
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#3 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 2:06 pm

One thing that looks like will happen is it won't be truely tropical. Here is the link to the GFDL . Note the stronger wind fields are displaced north of the center:):):)

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation
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#4 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 3:16 pm

Cold core systems don't intensify rapidly when they lose upper-level support, as is happening now. However, if convection can build near the center, then the system could eventually transform to warm core. But that may take a few days (most likely west of Florida).
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Oct 30, 2003 7:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:Cold core systems don't intensify rapidly when they lose upper-level support, as is happening now. However, if convection can build near the center, then the system could eventually transform to warm core. But that may take a few days (most likely west of Florida).


Looks a lot like Erika all over again.

SF
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ColdFront77

#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 9:07 pm

Of course, the (average) speed of the system will be very important as well in terms of development and landmasses.
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