2021 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1881
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#301 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 14, 2021 11:57 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.

Looks like he is talking about the PRECIP project which will be conducted around Taiwan on May-August 2022 to study extreme rainfall in the Meiyu front, MCSs, and TCs. Taiwan/Japan and South Korea will each be deploying their own aircraft in addition to NOAA's. We'll probably see valuable observations regarding TC intensity too!

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 631
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#302 Postby Teban54 » Mon Nov 15, 2021 12:52 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.

Looks like he is talking about the PRECIP project which will be conducted around Taiwan on May-August 2022 to study extreme rainfall in the Meiyu front, MCSs, and TCs. Taiwan/Japan and South Korea will each be deploying their own aircraft in addition to NOAA's. We'll probably see valuable observations regarding TC intensity too!

https://i.imgur.com/AwdXmuN.png

Surprised to see mainland China didn't participate in this, considering Mei-yu affects southeastern China too and the term Mei-yu itself is from Chinese.
0 likes   

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1333
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#303 Postby NotoSans » Mon Nov 15, 2021 5:00 am

Teban54 wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.

Looks like he is talking about the PRECIP project which will be conducted around Taiwan on May-August 2022 to study extreme rainfall in the Meiyu front, MCSs, and TCs. Taiwan/Japan and South Korea will each be deploying their own aircraft in addition to NOAA's. We'll probably see valuable observations regarding TC intensity too!

https://i.imgur.com/AwdXmuN.png

Surprised to see mainland China didn't participate in this, considering Mei-yu affects southeastern China too and the term Mei-yu itself is from Chinese.


Not a surprise given the geopolitical tension there. In fact that’s possibly a bigger hindrance to recon in the WPAC region than funding.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 217
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#304 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:06 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3312
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#305 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:50 pm

GFS fantasy run has a phantom low latitude monster for central philippines after 93W. It looks so funky i think it wont happen.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3212
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#306 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:04 pm

We are so sick and tired of you GFS. :lol: Go get some upgrade for next year.

Although the one that both the GFS and Euro are hinting to develop this week seems to be a real deal. Not sure if that's the currently active 93W. Still, there may be a chance Wanda won't be the last named tropical storm of 2021.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3098
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#307 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:00 pm

Super typhoon into the Philippines on the GFS :eek:
Looks like it's from a system behind 95W
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6327
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#308 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 07, 2021 6:45 pm

The GFS’ WPac major starts developing on Sunday, and has a very similar track, timing, and genesis as Typhoon Bopha in 2012. That doesn’t mean it’ll suddenly blow up into a Cat 5 before landfall; it’s perhaps more likely that the GFS is once again being too aggressive, and this will be a weaker storm that takes longer to consolidate.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida ‘21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3212
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#309 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:32 pm

Yeah, a Cat5 in WPAC in December in a -ENSO would be crazy.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3212
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#310 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:45 pm

GFS not giving up on its Cat5 fantasy before 2021 ends with another typhoon after Rai. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3312
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#311 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:24 pm

dexterlabio wrote:GFS not giving up on its Cat5 fantasy before 2021 ends with another typhoon after Rai. :lol:


GFS always have some high quality sh!t from fantasy land.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2720
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#312 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:41 am

GFS keeps calling for Malakas. Malakas means strong. Other models don't see a new TC formation yet, in contrast with Rai models already saw it forming within 10 days.
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots: https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3212
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#313 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:38 pm

GFS crazy long range solution on Rai is not far fetched after all...which makes me curious about the next one it's showing :double:
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6327
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#314 Postby aspen » Thu Dec 16, 2021 5:58 am

So the WPac is unable to produce any storm stronger than a Cat 1 for two months, then has back-to-back Super Typhoons in December during a La Niña…what even is this season lol
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida ‘21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3212
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#315 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:37 pm

Rai officially joins the club of La Niña late-season intense typhoons. Although I'm not sure if the ENSO state or the season had something to do with Rai's formation. To me it is just coincidental that the MJO has finally decided to become active in WPAC after a long period of lull. The westerly wind burst driven by the MJO resurgence is the one responsible for this.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3212
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#316 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:25 am

GFS dropped the follow-up storm to Rai, and all the models are showing a quiet WPAC with a cold air outbreak coming sometime this week, which should keep the basin TC-free. I think it is safe to say that once Rai dissipates early next week, it would be a wrap for the 2021 Western Pacific Typhoon Season.

Unfortunaley the season had to end nasty with a destructive Cat5. 2 months ago it felt like it would be quiet all throughout the last quarter of the year.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2720
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#317 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:50 am

dexterlabio wrote:GFS dropped the follow-up storm to Rai


It's still there on the latest runs but just a weak TS though.
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots: https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests