Big ones for 2021

[aspen]

I kinda want Peter to be a big one, solely to see all the dumb Gen Z Peter Griffin memes that would come from it existing.

[BadLarry95]

I kinda want Peter to be a big one, solely to see all the dumb Gen Z Peter Griffin memes that would come from it existing.

Satellite loop starts: Peter starts singing The Bird is the Word

Also if Bill, Henri, Julian, Mindy, or Sam get retired;

Brian, Herbert, Joe, Meg, Stewie.

Family Guy characters Ida (quagmires dad) and of course Peter are already there

[Category5Kaiju]

So it looks like the guesses for Ida aged like wine; additionally, Grace and Larry ended up being quite formidable but not as deadly and costly as Ida. Now that we are a bit after the halfway point, I am going to guess what the big one(s) will be for the rest of the season among the remaining names. I personally think Victor will be a classic October monster and become the first V storm to get its name retired.

[aspen]

Here’s how things have gone so far. Bolder storms are “Big Ones” in one way or another.


Ana: weak pre-season TS

Bill: respectable but harmless early season TS

Claudette: minor TS impacts

Danny: pathetic

Elsa: noteworthy impacts in the Caribbean and Florida as a weak hurricane but not retirement-worthy

Fred: $1 billion TS landfall in Florida

Grace: 110 kt landfall in Veracruz after causing rain and mudslides in earthquake-ravaged Haiti

Henri: weak hurricane peak, landfall in New England but not nearly as impactful as feared

Ida: catastrophic impacts as a 130 kt Cat 4 in Louisiana and as a trough-enhanced extratropical system in PA/NJ/NY/CT/RI/MA

Julian: a huge disappointment; could’ve been an open Atlantic Cat 2/3

Kate: pathetic

Larry: huge ACE maker, became the first hurricane to strike Newfoundland since Igor

Mindy: pathetic and short lived with minor impacts

Nicholas: weak hurricane landfall in Texas but not that bad


Also, someone said that Chanthu could be a Big One in the WPac, and they were right.

[Teban54]

Here’s how things have gone so far. Bolder storms are “Big Ones” in one way or another.


Ana: weak pre-season TS

Bill: respectable but harmless early season TS

Claudette: minor TS impacts

Danny: pathetic

Elsa: noteworthy impacts in the Caribbean and Florida as a weak hurricane but not retirement-worthy

Fred: $1 billion TS landfall in Florida

Grace: 110 kt landfall in Veracruz after causing rain and mudslides in earthquake-ravaged Haiti

Henri: weak hurricane peak, landfall in New England but not nearly as impactful as feared

Ida: catastrophic impacts as a 130 kt Cat 4 in Louisiana and as a trough-enhanced extratropical system in PA/NJ/NY/CT/RI/MA

Julian: a huge disappointment; could’ve been an open Atlantic Cat 2/3

Kate: pathetic

Larry: huge ACE maker, became the first hurricane to strike Newfoundland since Igor

Mindy: pathetic and short lived with minor impacts

Nicholas: weak hurricane landfall in Texas but not that bad


Also, someone said that Chanthu could be a Big One in the WPac, and they were right.

I never realized Fred was a billion dollar storm. Looks like that's the new normal for US landfalling storms now.

[Astromanía]

Why the US always lose such big amounts of money with tropical systems compared to other countries?

[Category5Kaiju]

Why the US always lose such big amounts of money with tropical systems compared to other countries?

The US is one of the richest countries in the world, but it also happen to be that much of the coasts of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf are very populated, so a major Hurricane landfall in the US usually hits at least some medium sized city, and this is obviously proves to be quite costly at least.

[cheezyWXguy]

Why the US always lose such big amounts of money with tropical systems compared to other countries?

The US is one of the richest countries in the world, but it also happen to be that much of the coasts of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf are very populated, so a major Hurricane landfall in the US usually hits at least some medium sized city, and this is obviously proves to be quite costly at least.

This. And while our cost tolls are high, our death tolls are considerably lower than most other countries, which generally proves the efficacy of our expensive infrastructure and building codes. Would gladly take a $100bil damage toll in the US over a 100,000 death toll in Bangladesh any day.

[Shell Mound]

Why the US always lose such big amounts of money with tropical systems compared to other countries?

Inflation is much higher in the U.S. than in other countries, so even a relatively weak storm can easily generate surprisingly high costs, in the postmodern era.

[tolakram]

Why the US always lose such big amounts of money with tropical systems compared to other countries?

Inflation is much higher in the U.S. than in other countries, so even a relatively weak storm can easily generate surprisingly high costs, in the postmodern era.

It's not inflation, it's building near a coast and then the expense to fix things when a hurricane hits. Where did you get the stat that US was one of the highest?

Here's data, filter pre-pandemic.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?end=2019&most_recent_value_desc=false&start=1960

We were at 1.7% prior to the pandemic, and should fall back below 2 once prices and supply chains stabilize.

[Hammy]

Why the US always lose such big amounts of money with tropical systems compared to other countries?

The US is one of the richest countries in the world, but it also happen to be that much of the coasts of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf are very populated, so a major Hurricane landfall in the US usually hits at least some medium sized city, and this is obviously proves to be quite costly at least.

Over a quarter of this was in a single county in North Carolina from flash-flooding. Has nothing to do with population density or land value being higher, but (similar to what happened in Tennessee) increasing incidences of extreme rainfall.

https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/2021/09/08/federal-disaster-declared-tropical-storm-fred-western-north-carolina-fema-aid/5773499001/

Haywood County Board of Commissioners Chair Kevin Ensley told the Citizen Times Aug. 19 that damage in Cruso alone came to $300 million with 225 structures destroyed, and nearby Clyde had about $18 million in damage.

[aspen]

Whoever said Odette was still right, because Rai’s Philippines name is Odette and will likely get retired.

[mrbagyo]

For Atlantic - I'll take Kate & Mindy
For WPAC - my money's on Chanthu, Malou, Nyatoh & Rai

I got zero points for the Atlantic
Got 50% hit on WPAC (Chanthu & Rai)

[InfernoFlameCat]

For Atlantic - I'll take Kate & Mindy
For WPAC - my money's on Chanthu, Malou, Nyatoh & Rai

I got zero points for the Atlantic
Got 50% hit on WPAC (Chanthu & Rai)

Nyatoh was a super typhoon.

[AnnularCane]

The possibilities for me this year for now are Elsa, Ida (yes, the I storm again), Leisure Suit Larry, Odette, and possibly Rose.

Well, I guess I was right about Ida anyway!

Would Larry possibly count as a big one?

[mrbagyo]

For Atlantic - I'll take Kate & Mindy
For WPAC - my money's on Chanthu, Malou, Nyatoh & Rai

I got zero points for the Atlantic
Got 50% hit on WPAC (Chanthu & Rai)

Nyatoh was a super typhoon.

i though the thread is about TCs that would do something significant impact wise (Nyatoh was a fish).
anyway, if it's solely for intensity then wth, i got 75% at WPAC
I'm nostradamus now

[aspen]

The possibilities for me this year for now are Elsa, Ida (yes, the I storm again), Leisure Suit Larry, Odette, and possibly Rose.

Well, I guess I was right about Ida anyway!

Would Larry possibly count as a big one?

It didn’t impact anyone significantly but it was a Big One for weather trackers, so I guess it counts. It was also the second-biggest ACE maker in the Atlantic this year and #4 worldwide.

Odette also kinda counts because it’s the Philippines name for Rai, which is definitely getting retired after killing over 100 people and causing hundreds of millions in damages.