2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#41 Postby WiscoWx02 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:20 pm

Shell Mound wrote:

Reminder: the date is 26 January. With the NAO remaining positive for the foreseeable future, I expect this to reverse sharply over the next several weeks.


I agree 100%, it won't last given how the last several years have gone. January SST's mean virtually nada in the long run.

There is something I am slightly confused on though. You mention a + NAO leading to cooling. Then how has this area warmed up since the NAO has been positive the last several weeks? I've also noticed in the past that sometimes when the NAO is negative the MDR cools when it should be warming and then when the NAO is negative it cools. I've never really noticed a pattern in MDR warming or cooling when it comes to the NAO, was wondering if it truly matters what phase the NAO is in?
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#42 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:07 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:

Reminder: the date is 26 January. With the NAO remaining positive for the foreseeable future, I expect this to reverse sharply over the next several weeks.


I agree 100%, it won't last given how the last several years have gone. January SST's mean virtually nada in the long run.

There is something I am slightly confused on though. You mention a + NAO leading to cooling. Then how has this area warmed up since the NAO has been positive the last several weeks? I've also noticed in the past that sometimes when the NAO is negative the MDR cools when it should be warming and then when the NAO is negative it cools. I've never really noticed a pattern in MDR warming or cooling when it comes to the NAO, was wondering if it truly matters what phase the NAO is in?


There's the problem with blindly relying on indexes rather than the actual pattern. Technically, the NAO has been positive. In a usual +NAO yes the enhanced subtropical ridge increases trade winds and cools the MDR. However this isn't really a usual +NAO. It kind of weasels into being one in an index because there's not much Greenland blocking and a good amount of mid-latitude ridging. Really, what we have here, especially applying it to SSTs in the MDR or trade wind strength, is much more like a -NAO than +NAO.

Image

We've got a ridge over persistent cutoff lows which has kept trades weak and allowed the MDR (especially off Africa) to sharply warm despite a "+NAO". With the upstream pattern change we may evolve into more of a classical +NAO though. Let this be a lesson to also check the maps, as indexes usually leave out data that can be useful. You can get the MDR sharply warming or cooling with a +NAO, but I bet if you compared the maps of each case they would look very different.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#43 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:14 pm

NotSparta wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Reminder: the date is 26 January. With the NAO remaining positive for the foreseeable future, I expect this to reverse sharply over the next several weeks.


I agree 100%, it won't last given how the last several years have gone. January SST's mean virtually nada in the long run.

There is something I am slightly confused on though. You mention a + NAO leading to cooling. Then how has this area warmed up since the NAO has been positive the last several weeks? I've also noticed in the past that sometimes when the NAO is negative the MDR cools when it should be warming and then when the NAO is negative it cools. I've never really noticed a pattern in MDR warming or cooling when it comes to the NAO, was wondering if it truly matters what phase the NAO is in?


There's the problem with blindly relying on indexes rather than the actual pattern. Technically, the NAO has been positive. In a usual +NAO yes the enhanced subtropical ridge increases trade winds and cools the MDR. However this isn't really a usual +NAO. It kind of weasels into being one in an index because there's not much Greenland blocking and a good amount of mid-latitude ridging. Really, what we have here, especially applying it to SSTs in the MDR or trade wind strength, is much more like a -NAO than +NAO.

https://i.imgur.com/dMQydkm.gif

We've got a ridge over persistent cutoff lows which has kept trades weak and allowed the MDR (especially off Africa) to sharply warm despite a "+NAO". With the upstream pattern change we may evolve into more of a classical +NAO though. Let this be a lesson to also check the maps, as indexes usually leave out data that can be useful. You can get the MDR sharply warming or cooling with a +NAO, but I bet if you compared the maps of each case they would look very different.


That makes sense! Thank you! I'm definitely going to be using that product more often as well, experimenting with it right now actually :D

Looks like that pattern could be around for a while too...honestly just curious to see how warm it gets at this point :lol:
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#44 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:29 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
I agree 100%, it won't last given how the last several years have gone. January SST's mean virtually nada in the long run.

There is something I am slightly confused on though. You mention a + NAO leading to cooling. Then how has this area warmed up since the NAO has been positive the last several weeks? I've also noticed in the past that sometimes when the NAO is negative the MDR cools when it should be warming and then when the NAO is negative it cools. I've never really noticed a pattern in MDR warming or cooling when it comes to the NAO, was wondering if it truly matters what phase the NAO is in?


There's the problem with blindly relying on indexes rather than the actual pattern. Technically, the NAO has been positive. In a usual +NAO yes the enhanced subtropical ridge increases trade winds and cools the MDR. However this isn't really a usual +NAO. It kind of weasels into being one in an index because there's not much Greenland blocking and a good amount of mid-latitude ridging. Really, what we have here, especially applying it to SSTs in the MDR or trade wind strength, is much more like a -NAO than +NAO.

https://i.imgur.com/dMQydkm.gif

We've got a ridge over persistent cutoff lows which has kept trades weak and allowed the MDR (especially off Africa) to sharply warm despite a "+NAO". With the upstream pattern change we may evolve into more of a classical +NAO though. Let this be a lesson to also check the maps, as indexes usually leave out data that can be useful. You can get the MDR sharply warming or cooling with a +NAO, but I bet if you compared the maps of each case they would look very different.


That makes sense! Thank you! I'm definitely going to be using that product more often as well, experimenting with it right now actually :D

Looks like that pattern could be around for a while too...honestly just curious to see how warm it gets at this point :lol:


That pattern might actually end soon. The CFSv2 shows ridging as far south as the Canary Islands in mid-February, leading to an indubitably +NAO. Regardless, it is early, and a lot can change from now until the 2022-2023 winter.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#45 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jan 30, 2022 10:18 pm

yikes

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Image
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#46 Postby SFLcane » Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:37 pm

Hope everyone is ready for another BUSY season. We will see what things looks like in a few months. For now this is ridiculous look to what could be very busy year ahead. :eek:

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1488575044968136704


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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:19 pm

Cold water near Greenland and warm subtropics isn’t exactly the most favorable. :uarrow:
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#48 Postby SFLcane » Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:48 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Cold water near Greenland and warm subtropics isn’t exactly the most favorable. :uarrow:


Not a bad look but again we’ll see in a few months

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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#49 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:59 pm

Remains hard to see how active the Atlantic hurricane season will be. I think it will depend on how active the EPAC ends up being.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#50 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:50 pm

This may be the most positive deep winter AMO since.. something like 2011. Not that it means much..

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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#51 Postby NotSparta » Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:25 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Cold water near Greenland and warm subtropics isn’t exactly the most favorable. :uarrow:


You're right, though quite a few of the recent active seasons seemed to have shrugged that off. Seems like as long as you can get the MDR above average then the season usually turns out above average
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#52 Postby aspen » Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:50 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Cold water near Greenland and warm subtropics isn’t exactly the most favorable. :uarrow:

That would increase subsidence and shear over the MDR, correct?

If we get a neutral to warm-neutral ENSO and the warm subtropics verifies, then we could see a 2018/19-esque season with a lot of activity in the subtropics and the strongest storms of the season peaking west of 60W. Both 2018 and 2019 did have a strong MDR-born storm that peaked north of 20N, but I don’t know if that’s likely if the MDR happens to be shut down this season.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#53 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:10 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Cold water near Greenland and warm subtropics isn’t exactly the most favorable. :uarrow:

That would increase subsidence and shear over the MDR, correct?

If we get a neutral to warm-neutral ENSO and the warm subtropics verifies, then we could see a 2018/19-esque season with a lot of activity in the subtropics and the strongest storms of the season peaking west of 60W. Both 2018 and 2019 did have a strong MDR-born storm that peaked north of 20N, but I don’t know if that’s likely if the MDR happens to be shut down this season.


Thing is, as mentioned previously, as long as the MDR is at least roughly as warm as the subtropics it shouldn't be as much of a detriment. 2017 and 2020 had the warm MDR/warm subtropics combo throughout ASO and were extremely active (not saying we are going to see that level of activity this year but I just think it goes to show the former can offset the latter). It really hasn't been that much of an issue in recent years given the Atlantic SST profile has had this almost uniformly warm look to it by the peak of the hurricane season and we have had six straight above average seasons within that span.

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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#54 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:33 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Cold water near Greenland and warm subtropics isn’t exactly the most favorable. :uarrow:

That would increase subsidence and shear over the MDR, correct?

If we get a neutral to warm-neutral ENSO and the warm subtropics verifies, then we could see a 2018/19-esque season with a lot of activity in the subtropics and the strongest storms of the season peaking west of 60W. Both 2018 and 2019 did have a strong MDR-born storm that peaked north of 20N, but I don’t know if that’s likely if the MDR happens to be shut down this season.


Plausible but keep in mind that 2017 and 2020 also had a fairly warm subtropics (with just as if not a warmer tropics) and were mostly saved by the WAM. So was 2018/19 though SST configurations in those years were less favorable than 2017 and 2020 and ENSO was much warmer in 2018/19 and cooler in 2017/20.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Remains hard to see how active the Atlantic hurricane season will be. I think it will depend on how active the EPAC ends up being.


EPAC activity in itself is more dependent on how the Atlantic (or really AMO) behaves than the reverse. A hyperactive EPAC can shut down the Caribbean (see 1980’s, 2014-18) but I don’t think that scenario is in play this year unless an El Niño and hyper +PMM develop.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#56 Postby 869MB » Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:19 am

It will be interesting to watch the verification of the cooler anomalies predicted in and around the Gulf of Guinea for Aug & Sep. I'm interested to see how these cooler anomalies affect tropical development over the Eastern Atlantic during the peak of the hurricane season if this verifies...


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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#57 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:25 am

869MB wrote:It will be interesting to watch the verification of the cooler anomalies predicted in and around the Gulf of Guinea for Aug & Sep. I'm interested to see how these cooler anomalies affect tropical development over the Eastern Atlantic during the peak of the hurricane season if this verifies...


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2022020100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_7.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2022020100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_8.png


Looks like +AMM to me. That's actually generally a favorable signal as it forces the ITCZ northward into the MDR where the warmer waters are. The opposite is more suppressive since the warm waters would be focused more towards the SHEM
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#58 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:53 am

Taking this with a grain of salt for now since it's so early but the latest extended-range Euro has probably the most favorable look in the Atlantic I've ever seen from it SST-wise, basically anticipating the current +AMO look to sustain itself into the Spring/Summer:
Image

I'm wondering if that's helping to offset what is clearly some form of +ENSO developing in the Pacific on this model as it's showing positive precip anoms all along the tropical Atlantic:
Image

Again it's very early and seasonal climatological models like these have proven to be rather unreliable at this range so I wouldn't put too much stock into what it is showing at the moment. Just a curiosity for now.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#59 Postby SFLcane » Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:35 am

New NMME precip with some Irma like tracks. :eek:

Quite the classic look I must say

Did a rather good job picking up those southern tracks into the Caribbean last year.

Image

Image
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#60 Postby NotSparta » Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:New NMME precip with some Irma like tracks. :eek:

Quite the classic look I must say

Did a rather good job picking up those southern tracks into the Caribbean last year.

https://i.postimg.cc/BQxYZbYP/2109-F956-AE87-474-A-8843-7-FB65-C1-F8-AE6.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/RVkWdV4d/5-B5-EB448-E251-4-A4-D-9272-34031650-C2-E5.jpg


Just remember, it is February so these models are subject to a lot of change. Have the SPB to get through and climate models have a lot of trouble with that. Wonder if they see the coming +NAO as well. That could knock the MDR SSTs down a notch
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