ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[hurricanes1234]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1498797891388940290

With this weeks developments, we don't need seasonal models to know what state ENSO will be for ASO. It's pretty clear there will be no El Nino. Even if we see a late spring WWB like 2009, there's going to be some significant upwelling developing soon and will persist for the next 3-5 months that it won't overcome. I still think Nino regions will warm some though before falling again due to the present downwelling KW. I don't think Nino 3.4 will tank like a rock.

In regards to El Nino chances: "The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the jello's jiggling"

The jello's jiggling and this post sure has me giggling.


I agree, it's looking as though El Niño may instead be Ningún Niño this year. Something tells me though that at some point, we could see a genuine El Niño. Probably closer to the middle of the decade. First though, we'll have to see how this year pans out from start to finish.

[Category5Kaiju]

Honestly, I am genuinely amazed that we are now talking about the prospect of a third-year La Nina. I remember earlier this year (even parts of the end of 2021) when people were overwhelmingly banking on an El Nino to form this year (I myself was on that boat before). This just shows you how things in the tropics can really and unpredictably change within months and how just because an event is rare (third-year La Ninas, I'm looking at you lol) historically does not mean it cannot occur again anytime soon.

I love tracking the tropics. Lol.

[Kingarabian]

There's always a chance for El Nino or La Nina in any given year. Some years are a little clearer than others. 2022 had a chance simply because the stats show El Nino is a good possibility after a double dip La Nina. Though we also know that triple La Nina's are possible. But there were also glaring indicators that could inhibit El Nino, and those indicators ended up verifying.

[cycloneye]

Good thread from Tyler.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1500853688113545222




 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1500857254689529856

[hurricane2025]

I’ve been saying no El Niño for this hurricane season

[Kingarabian]

The sea level heights over the Nino regions remain average or below average. Meaning any warm anomalies if any, are deep and away from the surface. No signs of an El Nino at all.

[cycloneye]

Big news here as La Niña and Neutral are at 45% for ASO while El Niño is only at 10%. The Febuary update had La Niña at 35%, Neutral at 46% and El Niño at 17%.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 March 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter.

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened during February 2022 across the central and east-central tropical Pacific, with negative anomalies stretching from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In particular, the weekly Niño-3.4 index decreased from -0.6°C at the beginning of February to -1.1°C in the last week [Fig. 2], while the other Niño SST regions were between -0.6°C and -1.3°C in the last week. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) were near zero [Fig. 3], as the recent warming associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave has attenuated. Below-average temperatures have expanded near the surface and at depth near ~150°W [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies strengthened during the past month, with the extension of enhanced low-level easterly winds across the equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remaining over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection strengthened around the Date Line, while convection was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus favors a slower decay of La Niña due to the recent renewal of ocean-atmosphere coupling, which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art climate models. For the summer and beyond, there is large uncertainty in the state of ENSO; however forecasters lean toward negative Niño-3.4 index values even if the index does not reach La Niña thresholds. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[Category5Kaiju]

Big news here as La Niña and Neutral are at 45% for ASO while El Niño is only at 10%. The Febuary update had La Niña at 35%, Neutral at 46% and El Niño at 17%.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 March 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter.

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened during February 2022 across the central and east-central tropical Pacific, with negative anomalies stretching from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In particular, the weekly Niño-3.4 index decreased from -0.6°C at the beginning of February to -1.1°C in the last week [Fig. 2], while the other Niño SST regions were between -0.6°C and -1.3°C in the last week. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) were near zero [Fig. 3], as the recent warming associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave has attenuated. Below-average temperatures have expanded near the surface and at depth near ~150°W [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies strengthened during the past month, with the extension of enhanced low-level easterly winds across the equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remaining over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection strengthened around the Date Line, while convection was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus favors a slower decay of La Niña due to the recent renewal of ocean-atmosphere coupling, which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art climate models. For the summer and beyond, there is large uncertainty in the state of ENSO; however forecasters lean toward negative Niño-3.4 index values even if the index does not reach La Niña thresholds. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

https://i.imgur.com/ZDElA7f.png

What's really shocking imho is how we were initially anticipating some warm-up in the Nino 3-4 regions (so that we would at least enter neutral territory by the boreal summer); but now there is a decent probability that this current La Nina never even disappears by definition. Yikes.

[Kingarabian]

For a soon to be third year La Nina, this is truly impressive. Because it's usually the first and second year of La Nina/El Nino events where the atmosphere behaves like this. If they don't stop, the intensity and duration of these trade bursts might mean a strong/super La Nina when the effects at the subsurface are realized.

[Category5Kaiju]

For a soon to be third year La Nina, this is truly impressive. Because it's usually the first and second year of La Nina/El Nino events where the atmosphere behaves like this. If they don't stop, the intensity and duration of these trade bursts might mean a strong/super La Nina when the effects at the subsurface are realized.

https://i.imgur.com/KZsUsEJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/mE8Koma.png

Wow. You know, I gotta say, while I know it is still extremely early, if this La Nina remains potent or grows even stronger, then I'd have to imagine that getting an El Nino even as early as 2023 could be placed in some form of jeopardy. Let's focus on this year though for now, but yes, absolutely impressive. Maybe the very bullish -ENSO models were onto something after all.

[cycloneye]

La Niña is holding up strong. Great thread.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1503381997577805825




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1503382005286936577




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1503382006608109576




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1503387383751979013




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1503385890713919488

[NotSparta]

I'm kind of interested in how things play out. It looks like we'll end up with a La Niña of some sort, question now is how strong does it end up? The setup we have right now leaves the window open for the strongest La Niña in a while, but I can also see it remaining a little on the weaker side. Guess we'll just have to see. Usually we aren't this certain as early as mid March, so at least it's nice to have an idea of where things are going rather than being split between -ENSO and +ENSO

[cycloneye]

I'm kind of interested in how things play out. It looks like we'll end up with a La Niña of some sort, question now is how strong does it end up? The setup we have right now leaves the window open for the strongest La Niña in a while, but I can also see it remaining a little on the weaker side. Guess we'll just have to see. Usually we aren't this certain as early as mid March, so at least it's nice to have an idea of where things are going rather than being split between -ENSO and +ENSO

Things are a bit clear in the time of the SB when normally we have to wait past that period.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/1503732750406332421

[cycloneye]

Great thread from Andy and good replies.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1504834553701179396




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1504843272136667137




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1504854283832934404




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1504856787719229457




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1504857800140328965

[Kingarabian]

Nino 1+2 can go down as fast as it can go up.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1504895691327344641

[Kingarabian]

Those climate models are going to bust pretty badly. It's as if they're not coupled with present conditions.

Latest subsurface snap shot continues to show rapid upwelling below the CPAC. This is just the beginning. Upwelling is favored through April and mid May. It's possible we'll see upwelling all the way through July at this rate.

[aspen]

:uarrow: Those climate models are going to bust pretty badly. It's as if they're not coupled with present conditions.

Latest subsurface snap shot continues to show rapid upwelling below the CPAC. This is just the beginning. Upwelling is favored through April and mid May. It's possible we'll see upwelling all the way through July at this rate.
https://i.imgur.com/4VP3wVX.gif

Is it possible we could see a “Super Nina” at the rate in which the cold pool is growing this early in the year?

[Category5Kaiju]

It is genuinely stunning how this La Nina is literally strengthening in its third year. Like I mentioned before, I genuinely wonder if this could have implications on the ENSO state for 2023 and perhaps even 2024 assuming this La Nina grows potent enough.