2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#881 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat May 21, 2022 12:10 pm

The Atlantic pre-season streak was inevitably going to end at some point, and right now it looks likely that it will end this year. Tropical cyclongenesis in May in the Atlantic definitely isn't an annual occurrence, as not one tropical cyclone officially formed in the month from 1982 to 2006. It's going to be interesting to see if we see more May storms in the coming years, or if it ends up like the unusually high amount of post-season activity from 1998 to 2007. May genesis is usually somewhat "random" and often comes from baroclinic sources like others have noted, and I don't think a dead May means anything for the season itself. In fact, the last year with no May NATL named storms, 2017 (which had Arlene in April) had the highest ACE since 2005.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#882 Postby toad strangler » Sat May 21, 2022 12:28 pm

skyline385 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:
2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 (70% of the 10 most recent seasons) would say otherwise. :wink:

On a serious note, something must be different about this season than previous seasons (e.g. 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) that makes pre-season development much harder this season than previous seasons. Pre-season activity has been in the norm in this post-2012 environment, so a lack of pre-season activity would actually be unexpected.


Disagree 100%. Opposite. What was unexpected was the streak of pre season activity.

On the contrary if it was unexpected and simply a one time thing then NHC wouldn't have moved TWO date to 15th May.


Never said anything was a “one time thing”
My point was more in the spirit of a small string of circumstance doesn’t make a new norm.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#883 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat May 21, 2022 12:56 pm

Is it normal to have so much SAL in May for S. FL. I don't remember African dust in May. :eek:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#884 Postby psyclone » Sat May 21, 2022 12:59 pm

Somewhere in there was possibly our first ever
pre-season, nonstorm season, season cancel! I love the spirit! You can tell hurricane season is getting close
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#885 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 21, 2022 1:42 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Is it normal to have so much SAL in May for S. FL. I don't remember African dust in May. :eek:


Image

Kinda impressive how its all over the tropics :D
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#886 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat May 21, 2022 1:43 pm

No preseason storm. We are going to see no storms. Just how it is. Yep I can see the future through December. No storms besides sloppy subtropical storms and sheared cat 1s. Yep I know everything. :roll:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#887 Postby toad strangler » Sat May 21, 2022 2:08 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Is it normal to have so much SAL in May for S. FL. I don't remember African dust in May. :eek:


June is a huge SAL month. We are just getting into SAL season so I don’t look at this outbreak as anything anomalous.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#888 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat May 21, 2022 2:27 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:No preseason storm. We are going to see no storms. Just how it is. Yep I can see the future through December. No storms besides sloppy subtropical storms and sheared cat 1s. Yep I know everything. :roll:

I mean it's always a possibility... it's just highly unlikely.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#889 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat May 21, 2022 2:39 pm

There is little correlation between preseason activity and activity during the actual season (ASO in particular). Of the top 10 ACE-producing seasons only one of them (2017) had a preseason storm, and out of all the most recent hyperactive seasons only two others managed to produce a TC prior to June (2003 and 2020).
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#890 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sat May 21, 2022 7:06 pm

With all this discussion about pre-season storms, I'd like to remind everyone of a season whose first named storm did not form until July 31.

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#891 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 21, 2022 8:35 pm

Everyone on wxtwitter seems to be talking about the Gulf system. 18Z GFS also picked up on it a bit. Wouldn't be the most surprising development since most pre season shorties don't pop up on models very early.

Image

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1528204031465865216




 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1528193015428304897


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#892 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 21, 2022 11:25 pm

skyline385 wrote:Everyone on wxtwitter seems to be talking about the Gulf system. 18Z GFS also picked up on it a bit. Wouldn't be the most surprising development since most pre season shorties don't pop up on models very early.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220522/e4b3ae3f9775be53d3b653940b23732d.jpg

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1528204031465865216

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1528193015428304897


Hey, if it's a shorty with a name but happens before June 1st, then it counts as a pre-season storm :D
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#893 Postby Teban54 » Sat May 21, 2022 11:29 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Everyone on wxtwitter seems to be talking about the Gulf system. 18Z GFS also picked up on it a bit. Wouldn't be the most surprising development since most pre season shorties don't pop up on models very early.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220522/e4b3ae3f9775be53d3b653940b23732d.jpg

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1528204031465865216

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1528193015428304897


Hey, if it's a shorty with a name but happens before June 1st, then it counts as a pre-season storm :D

Idk, at this point I would rather have Alex become a notable and memorable storm in June or July (like a surprisingly strong hurricane), than your typical pre-season slop. It's Alex, after all.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#894 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 22, 2022 1:51 am

Image

On a more serious note...am I seeing this correctly, as in did the most recent trade wind surge have very little impact on the sst anomalies in the MDR? It definitely does not look to have cooled off (if anything, seems like the eastern end of the MDR got even warmer too ironically).

Image

And if the above pans out, we could see even more considerable warming of the MDR. Westerlies seem to dominate until the end of this month at least
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#895 Postby skyline385 » Sun May 22, 2022 2:08 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/uDBV5lN.png

On a more serious note...am I seeing this correctly, as in did the most recent trade wind surge have very little impact on the sst anomalies in the MDR? It definitely does not look to have cooled off (if anything, seems like the eastern end of the MDR got even warmer too ironically).

https://i.imgur.com/urVO7vl.png

And if the above pans out, we could see even more considerable warming of the MDR. Westerlies seem to dominate until the end of this month at least


There was a decent amount of cooling up until 2 days ago

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#896 Postby Teban54 » Sun May 22, 2022 2:55 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/uDBV5lN.png

On a more serious note...am I seeing this correctly, as in did the most recent trade wind surge have very little impact on the sst anomalies in the MDR? It definitely does not look to have cooled off (if anything, seems like the eastern end of the MDR got even warmer too ironically).

https://i.imgur.com/urVO7vl.png

And if the above pans out, we could see even more considerable warming of the MDR. Westerlies seem to dominate until the end of this month at least

Is it just me, or does NOAA Coral Reef Watch have somewhat of a high bias in MDR SSTAs? Even in past years they seem to show slightly warmer anomalies than OISST.

I know CDAS has a cold bias especially in MDR and/or with SAL present.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#897 Postby aspen » Sun May 22, 2022 5:58 am

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/uDBV5lN.png

On a more serious note...am I seeing this correctly, as in did the most recent trade wind surge have very little impact on the sst anomalies in the MDR? It definitely does not look to have cooled off (if anything, seems like the eastern end of the MDR got even warmer too ironically).

https://i.imgur.com/urVO7vl.png

And if the above pans out, we could see even more considerable warming of the MDR. Westerlies seem to dominate until the end of this month at least

Is it just me, or does NOAA Coral Reef Watch have somewhat of a high bias in MDR SSTAs? Even in past years they seem to show slightly warmer anomalies than OISST.

I know CDAS has a cold bias especially in MDR and/or with SAL present.

OISST has the warmest bias of the three. During this month’s MDR warming phases, it showed SSTAs that were 0.1-0.2C higher than CRW.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#898 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun May 22, 2022 6:06 am

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/uDBV5lN.png

On a more serious note...am I seeing this correctly, as in did the most recent trade wind surge have very little impact on the sst anomalies in the MDR? It definitely does not look to have cooled off (if anything, seems like the eastern end of the MDR got even warmer too ironically).

https://i.imgur.com/urVO7vl.png

And if the above pans out, we could see even more considerable warming of the MDR. Westerlies seem to dominate until the end of this month at least

Is it just me, or does NOAA Coral Reef Watch have somewhat of a high bias in MDR SSTAs? Even in past years they seem to show slightly warmer anomalies than OISST.

I know CDAS has a cold bias especially in MDR and/or with SAL present.


The CDAS and CRW seem to have noticeable cold biases over the MDR and Nino 1+2 regions.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#899 Postby NotSparta » Sun May 22, 2022 6:47 am

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/uDBV5lN.png

On a more serious note...am I seeing this correctly, as in did the most recent trade wind surge have very little impact on the sst anomalies in the MDR? It definitely does not look to have cooled off (if anything, seems like the eastern end of the MDR got even warmer too ironically).

https://i.imgur.com/urVO7vl.png

And if the above pans out, we could see even more considerable warming of the MDR. Westerlies seem to dominate until the end of this month at least

Is it just me, or does NOAA Coral Reef Watch have somewhat of a high bias in MDR SSTAs? Even in past years they seem to show slightly warmer anomalies than OISST.

I know CDAS has a cold bias especially in MDR and/or with SAL present.



That particular map has bad climo, 1985-93
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#900 Postby skyline385 » Sun May 22, 2022 10:24 am

NotSparta wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/uDBV5lN.png

On a more serious note...am I seeing this correctly, as in did the most recent trade wind surge have very little impact on the sst anomalies in the MDR? It definitely does not look to have cooled off (if anything, seems like the eastern end of the MDR got even warmer too ironically).

https://i.imgur.com/urVO7vl.png

And if the above pans out, we could see even more considerable warming of the MDR. Westerlies seem to dominate until the end of this month at least

Is it just me, or does NOAA Coral Reef Watch have somewhat of a high bias in MDR SSTAs? Even in past years they seem to show slightly warmer anomalies than OISST.

I know CDAS has a cold bias especially in MDR and/or with SAL present.



That particular map has bad climo, 1985-93


Yea, lot of the SST maps seem to use 1981-2010 which completely ignores the past 10 years which had warm MDR.

This one atleast has the latest climo

Image
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