2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#421 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri May 20, 2022 9:07 am



Yeah, I have noticed that models have been recently and consistently sniffing at that feature. Perhaps we’re not 100% in jeopardy with our preseason streak after all :sun:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#422 Postby zzh » Fri May 20, 2022 10:15 am

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#423 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 20, 2022 4:24 pm

12Z Ensembles

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#424 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 21, 2022 11:45 am

Specifics should be ironed out within a week or so, but I think it's pretty evident that the next CAG that looks highly likely to set up at around late May/early June may be the next plausible source for potential TC genesis (especially on the Atlantic side).
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#425 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 21, 2022 2:50 pm

GEFS going for the "cant be wrong if there is a system everywhere on the map" approach :lol:

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#426 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat May 21, 2022 4:24 pm

Not global, but entertaining nonetheless since there’s not much going on right now. Anyone notice the closed low the 18z HRRR develops in the gulf? Obviously just an MCV, but still.

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2022 Tropical Waves

#427 Postby hurricane2025 » Sat May 21, 2022 6:26 pm

Hrr trying to spin something up quick in Gulf tomorrow lol
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#428 Postby Nimbus » Sat May 21, 2022 6:49 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:Hrr trying to spin something up quick in Gulf tomorrow lol


GFS 500 mb winds don't seem to provide much shear(but there are a lot of layers).

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#429 Postby skyline385 » Sun May 22, 2022 12:06 pm

Kinda funny if the EPAC's first system ends up being a major in June while under the influence of a strong 3rd year Nina while the NATL is still waiting :D

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#430 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 22, 2022 12:29 pm

skyline385 wrote:Kinda funny if the EPAC's first system ends up being a major in June while under the influence of a strong 3rd year Nina while the NATL is still waiting :D

https://i.imgur.com/dwlkiLp.png


As much as the GFS loves its major May phantoms, it's not much better in the EPAC, especially with a firmly entrenched third year La Nina base state. I guarantee you that whatever happens in the EPAC will likely be weak and sheared and not a Cat 4 monster.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#431 Postby skyline385 » Sun May 22, 2022 12:46 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Kinda funny if the EPAC's first system ends up being a major in June while under the influence of a strong 3rd year Nina while the NATL is still waiting :D

https://i.imgur.com/dwlkiLp.png


As much as the GFS loves its major May phantoms, it's not much better in the EPAC, especially with a firmly entrenched third year La Nina base state. I guarantee you that whatever happens in the EPAC will likely be weak and sheared and not a Cat 4 monster.


Well this one does form under very low shear while under the influence of the incoming CCKW, probably has little more chance the GFS Gulf run from last week where a Cat 3 was running into 50kts shear.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#432 Postby Chris90 » Mon May 23, 2022 1:28 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Kinda funny if the EPAC's first system ends up being a major in June while under the influence of a strong 3rd year Nina while the NATL is still waiting :D

https://i.imgur.com/dwlkiLp.png


As much as the GFS loves its major May phantoms, it's not much better in the EPAC, especially with a firmly entrenched third year La Nina base state. I guarantee you that whatever happens in the EPAC will likely be weak and sheared and not a Cat 4 monster.


The EPAC doesn't play by the same rules as the ATL, and while La Nina is a detriment to the pacific season, it's not a complete killer. 2010 had two majors in June, one being Celia at Cat 5, 2011 had its first major in June, and 2012 had its first major in May. Considering the La Nina base state, the best chances the EPAC is going to have will be the next 10-12 weeks if things continue as currently predicted and the ATL runs away with the tropical forcing come ASO.

I'm not saying model runs showing a major in the EPAC will happen for sure, but the EPAC possesses early season capabilities that the ATL doesn't, even in Nina years.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#433 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 11:32 am

12z GFS has a crossover from EPAC to BOC. ECMWF has hints of that.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#434 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 23, 2022 11:52 am

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS has a crossover from EPAC to BOC. ECMWF has hints of that.

https://i.imgur.com/SHpp1Om.gif

That is actually a hilarious solution, RI south into landfall, move to the north and RI again into landfall
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#435 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 2:01 pm

12z ECMWF also has the BOC thing after it moves thru Mexico from EPAC.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#436 Postby zzh » Mon May 23, 2022 7:24 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#437 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 24, 2022 12:30 am

Lastest GFS maintains the EPAC/Atlantic crossover idea as well as an extra tropical storm in the subtropics
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#438 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 24, 2022 6:50 am

There may well be the potential for moisture from the first EPAC storm to make it into the southern Bay of Campeche and spin up into a weak low by next Tuesday. However, VERY strong wind shear will dominate all of the Gulf next week. That should keep any system confined to the BoC before it moves back inland into Mexico.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#439 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue May 24, 2022 8:58 am

06z GFS shows three tropical cyclones back to back starting 192 hours out.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#440 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 12:14 pm

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Interesting 12Z solution
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