Category5Kaiju wrote: skyline385 wrote:
Kinda funny if the EPAC's first system ends up being a major in June while under the influence of a strong 3rd year Nina while the NATL is still waiting https://i.imgur.com/dwlkiLp.png
As much as the GFS loves its major May phantoms, it's not much better in the EPAC, especially with a firmly entrenched third year La Nina base state. I guarantee you that whatever happens in the EPAC will likely be weak and sheared and not a Cat 4 monster.
The EPAC doesn't play by the same rules as the ATL, and while La Nina is a detriment to the pacific season, it's not a complete killer. 2010 had two majors in June, one being Celia at Cat 5, 2011 had its first major in June, and 2012 had its first major in May. Considering the La Nina base state, the best chances the EPAC is going to have will be the next 10-12 weeks if things continue as currently predicted and the ATL runs away with the tropical forcing come ASO.
I'm not saying model runs showing a major in the EPAC will happen for sure, but the EPAC possesses early season capabilities that the ATL doesn't, even in Nina years.