2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
We could use an early season warm up here in S FL. Been 5 years since we even had sustained TS conditions.
0 likes
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:ronjon wrote:Starting to get good consensus in the long range models between GFS, Euro, and CMC on a tropical storm forming near the Yuc and heading NE somewhere between central and south Florida next weekend.
Most of the GFS runs have it missing SFL as it forms south of Yucatan.
GFS is the southern outlier. CMC appears to be the middle ground solution.
0 likes
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Cat5James wrote:We could use an early season warm up here in S FL. Been 5 years since we even had sustained TS conditions.
Would be nice and we do need it, Boca got flooded from like 6" of rain last week lol
0 likes
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Cat5James wrote:We could use an early season warm up here in S FL. Been 5 years since we even had sustained TS conditions.
Would be nice and we do need it, Boca got flooded from like 6" of rain last week lol
I saw that. I picked up a good amount of rain in NW Broward. 3-4 inches.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3946
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Don’t even think we might get rain, zonal flow is SW to NE, all that rain might be further south…
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFL rain will depend on if we get the EURO or the GFS run
12Z EPS & GEFS
12Z EPS & GEFS
0 likes
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:SFL rain will depend on if we get the EURO or the GFS run
12Z EPS & GEFS
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220527/12d05d381d7d791b8678f3b775919cdb.jpg
Usually safe to expect something in the middle. Southern half of FL peninsula should see on and off heavy showers.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220527/f9cdcaa3feaeb270c26740d38bc06152.jpg
0 likes
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The GFS runs just don't make any sense, keeps trying to form a system in very high shear off a CAG which is seemingly unaffected by the landfalling 91E? EURO atleast forms the system from 91E's remnants when the shear reduces slightly...
0 likes
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Fourth model now on board. Next week should be fun.
0 likes
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Cat5James wrote:
Fourth model now on board. Next week should be fun.
EURO, ICON and CMC all show a similar broad low pressure system forming from the remnants of 91E on interaction with the Yucatan peninsula. Meanwhile, GFS is off on its forming a new system from a CAG which absorbs the remnants.
GFS is having a really poor year honestly with busts in WPAC, IO and NATL.
1 likes
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Slower but stronger 0Z EURO at 988mb
Last edited by skyline385 on Sat May 28, 2022 3:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9594
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Now with 20% gradual development in 5 days.
2 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 138889
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The model runs for BOC can be posted at the thread now open for that area.
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p2968513
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p2968513
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 686
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
In addition to the potential crossover from the remnants of Agatha, models are hinting at a disturbance forming in the Bahamas/East of Florida which could spin up into something weak.
We'll throw HWRF in there for good measure lol (top right)
We'll throw HWRF in there for good measure lol (top right)
2 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3344
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:In addition to the potential crossover from the remnants of Agatha, models are hinting at a disturbance forming in the Bahamas/East of Florida which could spin up into something weak.
https://i.ibb.co/ZGq6YmL/gfs-z850-vort-seus-fh72-144.gif
https://i.ibb.co/Cmb3H6J/ecmwf-z850-vort-seus-fh93-138.gif
We'll throw HWRF in there for good measure lol (top right)
https://i.ibb.co/wYKp6Nj/hwrf-p-z850-vort-01-E-43.png
Maybe this season is sacrificing a pre-season start in favor of a highly active June
If those two storms go on to form and become named, we'll only need two more June storms to tie for most active June on record , interesting to see that Bahamas feature and the BoC feature.
3 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:In addition to the potential crossover from the remnants of Agatha, models are hinting at a disturbance forming in the Bahamas/East of Florida which could spin up into something weak.
https://i.ibb.co/ZGq6YmL/gfs-z850-vort-seus-fh72-144.gif
https://i.ibb.co/Cmb3H6J/ecmwf-z850-vort-seus-fh93-138.gif
We'll throw HWRF in there for good measure lol (top right)
https://i.ibb.co/wYKp6Nj/hwrf-p-z850-vort-01-E-43.png
Maybe this season is sacrificing a pre-season start in favor of a highly active June
If those two storms go on to form and become named, we'll only need two more June storms to tie for most active June on record , interesting to see that Bahamas feature and the BoC feature.
Imagine Earl beating Elsa's record for the earliest 5th storm, which itself beat Edouard's record, which itself beat Emily's record.
OK, I'm getting ahead of myself here.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 53 guests