2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 127496
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#921 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 8:09 pm

3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7941
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#922 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 25, 2022 3:45 pm

This is a look that means trouble.

Image

Image
9 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2144
Age: 20
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle --> Phoenix --> Virginia Beach

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#923 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 25, 2022 7:51 pm



Image

MDR getting torched now with those weak trades..
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7941
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#924 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 25, 2022 7:53 pm

Ok, now this is concerning. :eek: Look at Richard’s tweet.

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892


0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7941
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#925 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 25, 2022 8:04 pm

I just have that feeling it’s going to be a long season for Florida and the Gulf. Buckle up guys get your sleep now.
0 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#926 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed May 25, 2022 8:06 pm

Throughout May, MDR SSTAs have been a good 0.1 C above those of May 2021 but a good 0.13 C below those of May 2020. Given this, one might expect 2022 to have an ACE around 162 (average of 2020 and 2021 ACE). However, I expect 2022 to be closer to 2020 than 2021 in terms of activity because it was not the MDR that killed activity in 2021 (the MDR was more than warm enough by ASO); it was the Atlantic Nino. Given that 2022 is not expected to have an Atlantic Nino, we could see a season close to 2020 in terms of ACE (possibly 170 to 180 ACE) and one with >20 storms, especially with the background state similar to 2020.
1 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2144
Age: 20
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle --> Phoenix --> Virginia Beach

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#927 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 25, 2022 8:21 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:Throughout May, MDR SSTAs have been a good 0.1 C above those of May 2021 but a good 0.13 C below those of May 2020. Given this, one might expect 2022 to have an ACE around 162 (average of 2020 and 2021 ACE). However, I expect 2022 to be closer to 2020 than 2021 in terms of activity because it was not the MDR that killed activity in 2021 (the MDR was more than warm enough by ASO); it was the Atlantic Nino. Given that 2022 is not expected to have an Atlantic Nino, we could see a season close to 2020 in terms of ACE (possibly 170 to 180 ACE) and one with >20 storms, especially with the background state similar to 2020.


A couple of things I'd like to point out here: the background state is actually somewhat different from 2020, not because of the fact that we're going to almost certainly be in La Nina conditions by ASO but because this La Nina is already firmly in place and is also a third year event (in 2020, we had +0.5 C Nino 3,4 conditions in the spring, which then became a La Nina later into late summer/early fall). Additionally, I am not necessarily sure if MDR anomaly warmth in May specifically has a strictly linear correlation with total ACE (in other words, there are many more variables that are at play here that do not necessarily make the assumption that May MDR warmth is precisely and in a predictable manner associated with total ACE true). Now while I do expect 20 or more NSs with many shorties being a possible outcome, I still think it is a bit too early to tell if this year would be a west focused year like 2005 or 2020 or if it would be more along the lines of 2004, 2010, or 2017 with more intense MDR activity. After all, many of these years shared an anomalously warm May MDR in common (with 2004 actually being on the cooler side of things), so MDR warmth is not everything.
4 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1100
Age: 32
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#928 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 25, 2022 8:34 pm

SFLcane wrote:Ok, now this is concerning. :eek: Look at Richard’s tweet.

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892?s=21&t=2_4FWK7PcCj-R4yIfu6eeA


I wouldn't worry too much about it, his method verifies poorly for May forecasts

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1 ... 7234475009
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7941
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#929 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 25, 2022 9:31 pm

skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Ok, now this is concerning. :eek: Look at Richard’s tweet.

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892?s=21&t=2_4FWK7PcCj-R4yIfu6eeA


I wouldn't worry too much about it, his method verifies poorly for May forecasts

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1 ... 7234475009


Actually the 2020,2017 verified fairly well.
1 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1100
Age: 32
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#930 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 25, 2022 9:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Ok, now this is concerning. :eek: Look at Richard’s tweet.

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892?s=21&t=2_4FWK7PcCj-R4yIfu6eeA


I wouldn't worry too much about it, his method verifies poorly for May forecasts

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1 ... 7234475009


Actually the 2020,2017 verified fairly well.


Have to disagree on that one:

2017 - Most of the Gulf including CA is blue and dark blue which is where most of the storms ended up. The paths of Harvery, Irma (except FL) and Maria are also completely blue.
2020 - LA and CA (especially Nicaragua) which saw the most activity are blue and dark blue (except for that one small patch on Yucatan).
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7941
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#931 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 26, 2022 9:55 am

3 likes   

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1462
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#932 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri May 27, 2022 12:49 pm

Something I want to point out is that the ENSO state is not a static thing. It is always trending cooler or warmer. You can have El Nino and if it is trending cooler throughout the season you will be more favorable for activity. It is important, even though it is a La Nina state, what direction will the trend be ASO. Will it be trending warmer or cooler. That makes a difference.

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SteveM
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:21 am

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#933 Postby SteveM » Fri May 27, 2022 2:50 pm

Meanwhile, SSTAs are continuing to rise in the Atlantic MDR; almost +0.3c for CRW and +0.54c for OISST. Considerable compared to a week or so ago.
6 likes   

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 328
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#934 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat May 28, 2022 12:02 am

I thought there was SAL? :lol:

Image
7 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6625
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#935 Postby aspen » Sat May 28, 2022 4:52 am

weeniepatrol wrote:I thought there was SAL? :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/L2VOCQR.jpg

Strange that the entire Gulf and Caribbean has been cooling.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida ‘21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 13994
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#936 Postby NDG » Sat May 28, 2022 8:52 pm

aspen wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:I thought there was SAL? :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/L2VOCQR.jpg

Strange that the entire Gulf and Caribbean has been cooling.


That was from the strong easterly surge along with the dust that came through during the past few days along with cloud and rains over the northern GOM.
SSTs starting to warm already and expected to warm with near average to below average easterly trade winds across the Caribbean and parts of the Tropical Atlantic over the next few days.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 13994
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#937 Postby NDG » Mon May 30, 2022 7:15 am

Both the EPS and GEFS show shear dropping to average if not well below average across the western Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks.

Image
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1100
Age: 32
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#938 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 30, 2022 9:45 am

NDG wrote:Both the EPS and GEFS show shear dropping to average if not well below average across the western Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/aZqESoT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/KRXdm4y.gif


I wouldn't trust ensemble shear plots that much into the future, they all always converge towards low shear once you get that far ahead just because of how ensembles work.

Here's an example between model runs 6 days apart

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 13994
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#939 Postby NDG » Mon May 30, 2022 10:47 am

skyline385 wrote:
NDG wrote:Both the EPS and GEFS show shear dropping to average if not well below average across the western Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/aZqESoT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/KRXdm4y.gif


I wouldn't trust ensemble shear plots that much into the future, they all always converge towards low shear once you get that far ahead just because of how ensembles work.

Here's an example between model runs 6 days apart

https://i.imgur.com/HUhCN1B.png


Good point, lets leave it then at the 6-10 day range, which did fairly well.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6625
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#940 Postby aspen » Mon May 30, 2022 9:46 pm

I’m starting to think this season is going to have quite a late start, at least compared to 2015-21. There’s no guarantee that the tropical mess left behind by Agatha will be able to consolidate into a name-worthy system, and the next Kelvin Wave won’t arrive until later in the month. Maybe 2022 will follow 2004 and 2010, where Alex forms several weeks after the start of the season but ends up as a noteworthy hurricane.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida ‘21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AtlanticWind, hcane27, Majestic-12 [Bot], shah83 and 29 guests