Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

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Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 6:58 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southern part of the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week.
Afterward, some gradual development is possible while the system
drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts


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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#2 Postby Kohlecane » Sat May 28, 2022 7:21 am

interesting to see if this broad area that the models are indicating will get it's act together 8-)
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#3 Postby TallyTracker » Sat May 28, 2022 8:19 am

This is gonna get a nice mid-level starter package from Agatha. We’ll see if it can put together a low-level circulation from that. This a common setup so it would not surprise me if we get a TD or weak TS out of this even if it’s sheared.

I’m also supposed to be in New Orleans next week from Thursday - Sunday so Murphy’s law says this is gonna explode into a hurricane land falling in NO next Saturday to ruin my highly anticipated visit to the National WWII museum and excessive consumption of amazing Cajun cuisine…NOT A FORECAST FYI. Just the ravings of a pessimistic lunatic! lol :D
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#4 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 28, 2022 8:26 am

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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#5 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 28, 2022 8:32 am

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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#6 Postby TallyTracker » Sat May 28, 2022 8:47 am

It’s way too early to speculate on whether any cyclone would become a hurricane, but statistically it’s interesting to note that the last three storms named Alex were all hurricanes. Makes me wonder if this years will too.
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#7 Postby Fancy1001 » Sat May 28, 2022 8:58 am

Based on the ecmwf and hwrf models for Agatha, I'm a bit concerned about what will happen if its remnants makes it into the bay and avoids the Yucatan as it heads east-north-east towards florida.
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#8 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 28, 2022 9:15 am

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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#9 Postby ronjon » Sat May 28, 2022 9:29 am

Fancy1001 wrote:Based on the ecmwf and hwrf models for Agatha, I'm a bit concerned about what will happen if its remnants makes it into the bay and avoids the Yucatan as it heads east-north-east towards florida.


Shear is our friend with these early season storms. I'd expect a rather large gyre with most of the heavy weather on the east side...best guess now a moderate tropical storm with most global models predicting 995ish mb pressure in the GOM.
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#10 Postby aspen » Sat May 28, 2022 9:55 am

ronjon wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:Based on the ecmwf and hwrf models for Agatha, I'm a bit concerned about what will happen if its remnants makes it into the bay and avoids the Yucatan as it heads east-north-east towards florida.


Shear is our friend with these early season storms. I'd expect a rather large gyre with most of the heavy weather on the east side...best guess now a moderate tropical storm with most global models predicting 995ish mb pressure in the GOM.

Agatha/it’s remnants will undoubtedly broaden after making landfall, but if the circulation is small enough, either it won’t broaden to the point where it’ll struggle to re-develop, or it’ll get ripped apart entirely and have to start from scratch.
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#11 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 28, 2022 10:13 am

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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#12 Postby ouragans » Sat May 28, 2022 11:32 am

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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#13 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat May 28, 2022 11:49 am


HWRF struggles with crossovers and land interaction.
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#14 Postby mr_coogs » Sat May 28, 2022 11:55 am

slow trend on the last 7 runs of the GEFS
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#15 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 28, 2022 11:57 am

12Z ICON was also a weak slower run with the remnants getting dragged into Yucatan.
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#16 Postby Cat5James » Sat May 28, 2022 12:08 pm

skyline385 wrote:12Z ICON was also a weak slower run with the remnants getting dragged into Yucatan.

CMC also showing this.
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 12:19 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southern part of the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week.
Afterward, some gradual development is possible while the system
drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#18 Postby galaxy401 » Sat May 28, 2022 12:54 pm

Agatha will dissipate after landfall but it will leave a huge mess of rain. Typical area for early season development.
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#19 Postby underthwx » Sat May 28, 2022 1:41 pm



Is this potential BOC low development, an indirect or direct result of whatever Agathas effects are?
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Re: Bay of Campeche area

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 28, 2022 2:11 pm

underthwx wrote:


Is this potential BOC low development, an indirect or direct result of whatever Agathas effects are?


Directly from Agatha since the NHC is showing a strong recurve towards the NNE to NE and towards the BoC (As the NHC has a 20% in the next 5 days for that area for this reason), could theoretically (Some models show it & some don't) make it into the Atlantic with the LLC and still named Agatha, or lose the LLC and regenerate as Alex.
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