2022 WPAC Season

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zzh
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#81 Postby zzh » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:35 pm

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May was characterized by a huge TUTT, so despite a favorable MJO the WPAC produced 0 storms. 12z euro shows even more TUTTs in the next 10 days. I thought only the North Atlantic can have that many TUTTs :D :D :D
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#82 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:01 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/hlt4t6A.png
https://i.imgur.com/FyRIiZN.gif
May was characterized by a huge TUTT, so despite a favorable MJO the WPAC produced 0 storms. 12z euro shows even more TUTTs in the next 10 days. I thought only the North Atlantic can have that many TUTTs :D :D :D


The Atlantic got upset and gave the WPAC a taste of its own medicine after being typhoon-TUTTed throughout 2020 and 2021 :D
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#83 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:17 pm

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#84 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:29 pm

Gonna be well below average ACE if June remains this slow. That being said, this basin can turn a casual cloud into a Cat.5 monster at any given time.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#85 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Gonna be well below average ACE if June remains this slow. That being said, this basin can turn a casual cloud into a Cat.5 monster at any given time.

Last time the MAM value was this low was 1999, but that year featured an early June major. The last time June didn't form named storms was 2016, but the next month after that cat 5 Nepartak formed, then the legendary Meranti in September, but that year was a mix of Nino to Nina. Though current overall 2022 ONI values from DJF to MAM aren't as low as 2008/1999.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#86 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:25 am

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#87 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:24 am

GFS and CMC are sniffing something east of the Marianas in the long-range. It sure feels like a long time since we've seen models show activity in WPAC.

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#88 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:05 pm

Ah good old GFS back with its super typhoons. On a serious note, we are due for a typhoon soon. Probably sometime in July.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#89 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:06 pm

CMC, GFS, and with a hint from the Euro shows development at late June to early July. CMC is the most aggressive in early development, it develops at 3rd week of June.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#90 Postby NotoSans » Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:59 am

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#91 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:56 am

GFS ensemble for the past week have been showing strong members around this area. Euro ensemble there's some support but if a rightful Chaba's gonna form, it's playing catch up.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#92 Postby Ed_2001 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:10 am

Been hinting at it for a bit now, but both GFS and euro now converging on possible formation of Chaba in 3-4 days and landfall in ~7 days.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#93 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:18 am

No offense but this is quite pathetic. When was the last June without cyclogenesis?
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#94 Postby Ed_2001 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:19 am

weeniepatrol wrote:No offense but this is quite pathetic. When was the last June without cyclogenesis?

2016, 2010, 2007 etc. and this year might not make that list now with the expected development of 97W at the end of the month.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#95 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:43 am

Ed_2001 wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:No offense but this is quite pathetic. When was the last June without cyclogenesis?

2016, 2010, 2007 etc. and this year might not make that list now with the expected development of 97W at the end of the month.


2016 definitely had June cyclogenesis.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#96 Postby Ed_2001 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:34 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
Ed_2001 wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:No offense but this is quite pathetic. When was the last June without cyclogenesis?

2016, 2010, 2007 etc. and this year might not make that list now with the expected development of 97W at the end of the month.


2016 definitely had June cyclogenesis.



1 TD yes, I was looking in terms of named storms.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#97 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:02 am

I'm already getting bored with the weak intensity expectation from 97W/98W that I started looking more at the fantasy range from the GFS :P
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#98 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:33 pm

Looks like the WPac will get its chance to shine during the first half of July. I hope we get an OTS major or even an OTS STY, now that we have 10-minute and 3-minute imagery on Tropical Tidbits.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#99 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:46 pm

aspen wrote:Looks like the WPac will get its chance to shine during the first half of July. I hope we get an OTS major or even an OTS STY, now that we have 10-minute and 3-minute imagery on Tropical Tidbits.


I hope China makes the 1 minute FY-4B rapid scan publicly available.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#100 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:21 am

GFS wants to develop an intense typhoon around this area. Euro op still quiet but previous runs had some low forming over the Philippine Sea.
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The next name is Songda. Songda also has a high intensity record, all of them were at least cat 4. Is the next Songda gonna maintain its high intensity record or ruin it like Chaba?
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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