2022 Tropical Waves

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:06 am

Waves 11-12-13 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/25/22:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 17W/18W
from 02N to 16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are east of the to inland the coast of Africa
from 06N to 12N. Isolated showers are along the wave axis from 06N
to 08N. Latest satellite imagery clearly shows a mid-level
cyclonic circulation out ahead of the wave near 08N22W. Broken to
overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds are noted with this
feature covering the area from 06N to 10N and between 20N-26W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 210 nm in
the SW and 120 nm in the NW quadrants of the cyclonic
circulation. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
elsewhere underneath the aforementioned clouds.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from
02N to 15N, moving westward at 17 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed ahead of the wave from
06N-12N between the wave and 39W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system over the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle
part of next week.


A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 02N
to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Clusters of scattered
moderate strong convection are increasing ahead of this wave to
58W and from 06N-11N. Similar convection is within 240 nm east of
the wave from 09N to 12N. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds are
possible over the Windward Islands as the tropical wave passes
through the area Sun and Sun night.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #14 introduced at 12z surface analysis off African Coast

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:20 am

Wave #14 has been introduced just off the West African Coast.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #14 introduced at 12z surface analysis off African Coast

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:22 pm

Waves 11-12-13-14 discussion at 18:05 UTC.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W from
02N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows
a mid-level cyclonic circulation out ahead of the wave near
08N23W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm E
of the wave axis and within 360 nm W of the wave axis from 04N to
10N, including where the mid-level circulation is located.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 02N
to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed within 180 nm E of the wave axis and within 240 nm W of
the wave axis from 07N to 12N. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week. The chance of
tropical cyclone formation is low during the next 48 hours, but
medium over the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds are
likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning.


A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52/53W from
02N to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted within 240 nm either side of the
wave axis from 06.5N to 12.5N. This tropical wave is expected to
produce enhanced rainfall over the Windward Islands on Sun and Sun
night.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 17N
southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 240 nm E of the wave axis from 13N to 16N, mainly over
eastern Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and Caribbean waters
within 60 nm of those coasts.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#64 Postby ouragans » Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:59 am

Wave 12 now part of Special Features. Waves 13-14 are in the main discussion

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. Its
axis is along 39W, south of 15N and the wave is moving W around
15 kt. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased over the
past few hours, especially from 05N to 11N and between 35W and 45W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to
middle part of this week. This system is forecast to move over
the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday,
and move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and
Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. The chance of tropical cyclone formation
is medium during the next 48 hours, but high over the next 5
days. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward
Islands Tue night into Wed morning. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 15N
and moving W around 15 kt. A few showers are observed near the
trough axis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of
15N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N and between 47W and
57W. This tropical wave is expected to produce enhanced rainfall
over the Windward Islands on Sun and Sun night.


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16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#65 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:18 am

Waves 12-13-14 on 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/26/22:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. Its
axis is along 40W/41W south of 16N. It is moving westward at
15 kt. A small cyclonic circulation is along the wave axis near
08N41W. Convection of the numerous moderate to strong type
increased during the overnight hours. It is noted within 180 nm
SW and 150 nm NW of the small cyclonic circulation. Latest
satellite imagery also shows scattered moderate to isolated strong
that crosses the wave axis within 30 nm of a line from 09N36W to
10N39W and to 11N41W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds
along with seas of 8-10 ft are occurring from 11N to 18N and
between 42W-55W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of the upcoming week. This system
is forecast to continue on a westward track over the tropical
Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tue then move across
the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wed and Thu. Interests in the
Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. The
chance of tropical cyclone formation is medium during the next 48
hours, but high over the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds
are likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov
for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from
02N to 05N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Latest satellite
imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
300 nm east of the wave from 04N to 10N, and within 180 nm west of
the wave from 06N to 09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of
16N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm west of the wave from 09N to 13N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 300 nm east of the
wave from 10N to 14N.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #15 Introduced inside Africa

#66 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:48 am

Wave #15 has been introduced inside Africa on the 12z surface analysis.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #15 Introduced inside Africa

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:17 pm

18 UTC discussion of waves 12-13-14-15.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N-16N. A 1009
mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 08N42W. The
disturbance is moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the low in
the NE, NW and SW quadrants. Little to no convection is elsewhere
along the wave axis. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft are
likely occurring near and to the north of the disturbance.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development.
The chance of tropical cyclone formation is medium during the
next 48 hours, but high over the next 5 days. This system is
forecast to approach the Windward Islands on Tue, then move across
the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wed and Thu on a westward
track. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward
Islands Tue night into Wed morning, and interests there should
monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.




A tropical wave over west Africa has been added to the analysis
along 14/15W from 16N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave
should emerge off the west coast of Africa later today. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm W of
the wave axis and within 150 nm E of the wave axis from 03N-10N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W from 02N
to 14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06.5N-09N between 26.5W-33W and from 02N-05N between
23W-27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of
17N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 270 nm either side of the wave axis
from 07N to 16N, and is currently affecting the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands. Enhanced rainfall will continue across
the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through
tonight.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#68 Postby ouragans » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:35 pm

0 UTC discussion with 12-13-14-15

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located along 45W or about 1000 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands continues to show signs of organization.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on
either side of the wave, and mainly from 06N to 10N between 40W
and 50W. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis
near 08N44.5W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8-10 ft are
ahead of the wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to the middle part of this week with a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. This
system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 15
to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward
Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern Caribbean
Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are
likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning.
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Four tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. One of them has the potential of tropical
cyclone formation and is described in the Special Features
section.

A tropical is along 16W from 02N to 15N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 10N between 14W and 20W.

A second tropical wave has its axis along 29W/30W from 02N to
14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed ahead of the wave axis 06N to 09N between 32W and 35W.

Another tropical wave is along 60W S of 16N. It is moving westward
at 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles, mainly S of Dominica, and
regional waters. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds will continue
across the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through
late tonight.
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16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#69 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:56 pm

A thread has been started for the wave near 17W, since that is the one the GFS is developing to a small degree.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122742

Also, to avoid confusion, any wave which has its own thread will have its text grayed out in the TWDs that are posted.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#70 Postby AJC3 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:12 am

The MDR has a pretty "Un-June-like" appearance this morning...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association
with a tropical wave located along 45W or about 950 miles east-
southeast of the southern Windward Islands. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave,
and mainly from 05N to 12N and between 40W and 55W. A 1007 mb low
pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 08N45W. The
disturbance is moving W around 15 kts. Fresh to strong NE winds
and seas of 8-10 ft are just ahead of the wave. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night
or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean
Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests in
the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm
watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas
later today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward
Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Four tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. One of them has the potential of tropical
cyclone formation and is described in the Special Features
section.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W, south of 16N
and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 14W and 22W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of 15N and
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 09N and between 26W and 36W.


A third tropical wave has its axis along 61W, south of 16N and
moving W around 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles, mainly S of
Guadeloupe, and across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Enhanced
rainfall and gusty winds will continue across the Windward Islands
and southern Leeward Islands through this morning and spread
across the ABC islands later today and tonight. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong trades
are associated with this feature.


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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:19 am

Here are the waves that are not being highlighted by NHC at 12:05 UTC discussion.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis along 20W,
extending from 02N to 16N, and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to
12N and between 15W and 32W.



A tropical wave is just to the E of the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 62W, south of 17N and moving W around 15 kt. The wave is
generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over a great
portion of the Lesser Antilles, and across the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds will continue across the
Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through this morning
and spread across the ABC islands later today and tonight.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#72 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:50 am

Waves at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/28/22:

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 31W
extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 30W and
39W.


A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 70W, S
of 16N, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring S of 16N between 64W and 76W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #16 introduced in West Africa

#73 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:00 pm

Wave #16 has been introduced on the 18z surface analysis in West Africa.

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #16 introduced in West Africa

#74 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wave #16 has been introduced on the 18 z surface analysis in West Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/83UOXaP.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/6mkpmtf.gif


That wave looks like it has potential
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#75 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:02 am

Wave #16 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/29/22.

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis along 17W,
extending from 03N to 17N, and moving W near 15 kt. There is no
deep convection associated with the wave at the current time.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#76 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:11 am

Wave #16 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/30/22:

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 25W,
extending from 03N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 17W and 30W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#77 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:57 pm

Wave #16 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 7/1/22.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 33W, from
18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 05N to 10N between 25W and 32W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#78 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 6:52 am

Wave #16 at 12:05 UTC on 7/2/22.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the Atlantic near 36W, from 02N
to 17N, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is weak.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#79 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:59 am

Wave #16 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/3/22:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W, from 02N to 18N and
is moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a dry and stable
environment and no significant convection is noted with it at this
time.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves: Wave #17 introduced

#80 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:56 pm

Wave #17 has been introduced emerging West Africa.



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