ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12601 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:41 pm

You have to separate intraseasonal noise from the long term trends. It can't sustain constant cooling all the time. But the cooling periods are supported by huge trades vs hardly any wwb during warming. In the early Fall cooling will be favored (as did late Spring). One step forward then two steps back.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12602 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:33 am

CPC shows no change at Nino 3.4. Remains -0.6C.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12603 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:00 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12604 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:22 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12605 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:32 am

The subsurface anomaly graphic is becoming misleading. Especially if were looking at temperatures well at depth.

If you look at the subsurface mean temperatures and compare 2022 with years that had June El Nino's such as 2009 and 2006, you can see its very behind. 2009 and 2006 had a much more suppressed thermocline compared to 2022. Just look how far east and the large amounts of 29C/28C/27C/26C temperatures are compared to 2022.

Image
Image

Even the SST heights are lacking. If an El Nino was about to happen there would be a significantly larger bump at the ocean surface. The only slight above average rise is at 160W-120W up from 0 to 5N. South of the equator is still below average, and east of 120W is below average from 5S to 5N.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12606 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:19 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12607 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:08 pm

AMJ ONI came in at -1.0. Tied with 1999 and 2nd coolest AMJ value since 1950
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Re: ENSO Updates: AMJ ONI = -1.0

#12608 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:12 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:AMJ ONI came in at -1.0. Tied with 1999 and 2nd coolest AMJ value since 1950


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Re: ENSO Updates: AMJ ONI = -1.0

#12609 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:19 pm

Already seeing an upwelling kw emerge.

Image

Image

Trades will remain extremely strong through at least the first half of July

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates: AMJ ONI = -1.0

#12610 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:34 am

Nino 3.4 remains at -0.6C per the CPC.
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Re: ENSO Updates: AMJ ONI = -1.0

#12611 Postby underthwx » Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:52 am

weeniepatrol wrote:Already seeing an upwelling kw emerge.

https://i.imgur.com/neB9dwx.png

https://i.imgur.com/nYh3OxG.png

Trades will remain extremely strong through at least the first half of July

https://i.imgur.com/5aSjyuT.gif


With increased trade winds, does this indicate a higher potential of cyclone formation? And also, I read about Coriolis force during hurricane season. Is the Coriolis force, a result of the trade winds? I'm interested in if, or how it is measured, or predicted? (I hope my question is relevant to this thread)
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Re: ENSO Updates: AMJ ONI = -1.0

#12612 Postby SteveM » Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:02 pm

SSTA's in the 3.4 region still seem to be increasing. What's the deal with the trade winds, I thought they've been strong for a while now?

underthwx wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:Already seeing an upwelling kw emerge.

https://i.imgur.com/neB9dwx.png

https://i.imgur.com/nYh3OxG.png

Trades will remain extremely strong through at least the first half of July

https://i.imgur.com/5aSjyuT.gif


With increased trade winds, does this indicate a higher potential of cyclone formation? And also, I read about Coriolis force during hurricane season. Is the Coriolis force, a result of the trade winds? I'm interested in if, or how it is measured, or predicted? (I hope my question is relevant to this thread)


My understanding is that trade winds should have a cooling effect on the SSTs.

As for coriolis, no, that is due to the Earth's rotation and is not caused by weather. It's what allows TCs to spin, is the reason they spin in different directions in the northern vs southern hemispheres and is the reason TCs therefore can't form on the equator - there is no direction for them to spin in. You can see the same principle on a smaller scale if you observe the way water spins as it goes down a sink and how it spins in the opposite direction in the opposite hemisphere.
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Re: ENSO Updates: AMJ ONI = -1.0

#12613 Postby zzh » Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:12 pm

SOI is near record right now. Atmosphere response of La Nina is very strong.
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Re: ENSO Updates: AMJ ONI = -1.0

#12614 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:12 pm

underthwx wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:Already seeing an upwelling kw emerge.

https://i.imgur.com/neB9dwx.png

https://i.imgur.com/nYh3OxG.png

Trades will remain extremely strong through at least the first half of July

https://i.imgur.com/5aSjyuT.gif


With increased trade winds, does this indicate a higher potential of cyclone formation? And also, I read about Coriolis force during hurricane season. Is the Coriolis force, a result of the trade winds? I'm interested in if, or how it is measured, or predicted? (I hope my question is relevant to this thread)


No, the Corilios force is the Earth's deflection of air towards the right in the NHEM and to the left in the SHEM and measured by f=2*angular velocity*sin(latitude). Trade winds are not directly related to the Coriolis force even if the winds are necessary to conserve angular momentum.
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Re: ENSO Updates: AMJ ONI = -1.0

#12615 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:35 pm

SteveM wrote:SSTA's in the 3.4 region still seem to be increasing. What's the deal with the trade winds, I thought they've been strong for a while now?

underthwx wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:Already seeing an upwelling kw emerge.

https://i.imgur.com/neB9dwx.png

https://i.imgur.com/nYh3OxG.png

Trades will remain extremely strong through at least the first half of July

https://i.imgur.com/5aSjyuT.gif


With increased trade winds, does this indicate a higher potential of cyclone formation? And also, I read about Coriolis force during hurricane season. Is the Coriolis force, a result of the trade winds? I'm interested in if, or how it is measured, or predicted? (I hope my question is relevant to this thread)


My understanding is that trade winds should have a cooling effect on the SSTs.

As for coriolis, no, that is due to the Earth's rotation and is not caused by weather. It's what allows TCs to spin, is the reason they spin in different directions in the northern vs southern hemispheres and is the reason TCs therefore can't form on the equator - there is no direction for them to spin in. You can see the same principle on a smaller scale if you observe the way water spins as it goes down a sink and how it spins in the opposite direction in the opposite hemisphere.


Trade winds have had a cooling effect on the SSTs in the 3.4 region, it just doesn't reflect in the anomalies currently:
Image

SteveM is correct in that the Coriolis force is one of the main components of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG), particularly past 5/-5 LAT, but there are actually 3 main atmospheric forces that assist in TCG:

Coriolis force
Coriolis force is the self-rotation of the earth that causes a deflection in the air motion due to its prograde rotation. Think of it this way, pick any point on the surface and the motion of the Earth is rotating from west to east. If you plot any point along the axis of the equator, you are technically moving at a slower speed comparative to points that are north or south of the equator. This inertia is the reason why when air moves towards the north in the Northern Hemisphere (or to the south in the Southern Hemisphere), it maintains its initial eastward moving speed even while the Earth’s surface underneath is slower. Relative to the earth’s surface, the air will appear to be deflected either to the right (Northern Hemisphere) or to the left (Southern Hemisphere). This is the Coriolis force, which increases the greater distance you travel away from the equator:

Coriolis effect in the Northern Hemisphere:
Image

Coriolis effect in the Southern Hemisphere:
Image

Frictional force
Generated when air molecules undergo electron relaxation when rubbing against ambient substances (e.g., ground surface, sea-water aerosol particles, etc.). Frictional force causes the air molecules to lose kinetic energy and slow down. Systems that form near coastlines can exhibit increased frictional force to aide in TCG.

Pressure gradient force
Chemistry 101, air flows from high pressure to low pressure. Air flow is increased when the pressure gradient is larger (i.e., greater difference between low and high pressure areas). An example of this was a rare tropical system (tropical storm Vamei) that occurred in the WPAC in 2001, with TCG occurring at 1.4N (~85 nmiles from the equator). Even more astonishing, a navy report from a ship in the eyewall reported sustained hurricane force winds (which resulted in the JTWC upgrading to typhoon status).

Image

To note, it’s extremely rare for only frictional force and pressure gradient force to cause TCG; simple air flow from low pressure to high pressure wouldn’t result in ample rotation. However, in the presence of Coriolis force, the air will not only move towards the low pressure center, but also will be deflected (which ultimately results in a vortex and TCG).
Last edited by USTropics on Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12616 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:16 pm

CFS is going crazy

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12617 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:20 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12618 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:46 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12619 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:52 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12620 Postby underthwx » Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:31 pm

USTropics wrote:
SteveM wrote:SSTA's in the 3.4 region still seem to be increasing. What's the deal with the trade winds, I thought they've been strong for a while now?

underthwx wrote:
With increased trade winds, does this indicate a higher potential of cyclone formation? And also, I read about Coriolis force during hurricane season. Is the Coriolis force, a result of the trade winds? I'm interested in if, or how it is measured, or predicted? (I hope my question is relevant to this thread)


My understanding is that trade winds should have a cooling effect on the SSTs.

As for coriolis, no, that is due to the Earth's rotation and is not caused by weather. It's what allows TCs to spin, is the reason they spin in different directions in the northern vs southern hemispheres and is the reason TCs therefore can't form on the equator - there is no direction for them to spin in. You can see the same principle on a smaller scale if you observe the way water spins as it goes down a sink and how it spins in the opposite direction in the opposite hemisphere.


Trade winds have had a cooling effect on the SSTs in the 3.4 region, it just doesn't reflect in the anomalies currently:
https://i.imgur.com/BpBPZII.png

SteveM is correct in that the Coriolis force is one of the main components of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG), particularly past 5/-5 LAT, but there are actually 3 main atmospheric forces that assist in TCG:

Coriolis force
Coriolis force is the self-rotation of the earth that causes a deflection in the air motion due to its prograde rotation. Think of it this way, pick any point on the surface and the motion of the Earth is rotating from west to east. If you plot any point along the axis of the equator, you are technically moving at a slower speed comparative to points that are north or south of the equator. This inertia is the reason why when air moves towards the north in the Northern Hemisphere (or to the south in the Southern Hemisphere), it maintains its initial eastward moving speed even while the Earth’s surface underneath is slower. Relative to the earth’s surface, the air will appear to be deflected either to the right (Northern Hemisphere) or to the left (Southern Hemisphere). This is the Coriolis force, which increases the greater distance you travel away from the equator:

Coriolis effect in the Northern Hemisphere:
https://i.imgur.com/VUYLGTx.png

Coriolis effect in the Southern Hemisphere:
https://i.imgur.com/NC56LqQ.png

Frictional force
Generated when air molecules undergo electron relaxation when rubbing against ambient substances (e.g., ground surface, sea-water aerosol particles, etc.). Frictional force causes the air molecules to lose kinetic energy and slow down. Systems that form near coastlines can exhibit increased frictional force to aide in TCG.

Pressure gradient force
Chemistry 101, air flows from high pressure to low pressure. Air flow is increased when the pressure gradient is larger (i.e., greater difference between low and high pressure areas). An example of this was a rare tropical system (tropical storm Vamei) that occurred in the WPAC in 2001, with TCG occurring at 1.4N (~85 nmiles from the equator). Even more astonishing, a navy report from a ship in the eyewall reported sustained hurricane force winds (which resulted in the JTWC upgrading to typhoon status).

https://i.imgur.com/YR02la6.png

To note, it’s extremely rare for only frictional force and pressure gradient force to cause TCG; simple air flow from low pressure to high pressure wouldn’t result in ample rotation. However, in the presence of Coriolis force, the air will not only move towards the low pressure center, but also will be deflected (which ultimately results in a vortex and TCG).


Im at a loss for words, thankyiu for your very informative reply, I appreciate the time you took to do that, says another about you, again, many thanks!
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