2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1421 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:15 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:


With all of this talk about the TUTT, I just have to wonder but does anybody have an idea on how prevalent the TUTT was in years like 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, or 2017? Seems like there's quite a bit of emphasis on how it can cause a season to perform less than expected, but I am curious to see what history has to say about it as well.


Not sure about most of the years, but I know 2017 had a huge TUTT present until about late August. There was talk of a possible inactive season and then August 20th came and so did Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria, and so on. What happens before August 20th concerning TUTTs is not very important to me.


There are full seasonal sat loops that are interesting to look at for persistent features.

NWSLakeCharles https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSLakeCharles/videos

2005


Link: https://youtu.be/0UCExBpxrDM

2017


Link: https://youtu.be/FJB3WSTpHM0

1995


Link: https://youtu.be/a6wbOaBzOIg
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1422 Postby FireRat » Sat Jul 02, 2022 2:07 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Something reminds me about bonnie, it had a southern track like bret of 2017 and 1933 Trinidad hurricane. Something to note about these two seasons is that they both ended up with 200+ ace. will 2022 follow in their footsteps?!!!


Not sure if Bonnie alone would mean anything major, but considering we had an unusually active MDR in June already, I still think that this season has the potential to be a quality storm year. Maybe it'll put an end to those lack-of-quality storm complaints that we've been getting the past couple of years haha (although, not sure why such complaints even persisted given we already had storms like Florence, Lorenzo, and Sam, which imho were quality enough).


IMO this really could be a significant indicator, there is strong correlation between the big years and these types of early season low latitude storms. More than just coincidence, it is likely we will see some incredible peak season hurricanes and perhaps one or two late season monsters. The stage is set for some serious stuff
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1423 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:48 am

So, assuming that invest 90l was indeed a tropical storm, we are on pace with 2020 and 2021 with named systems! Just wanted to throw that out there.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1424 Postby USTropics » Sat Jul 02, 2022 1:20 pm

200mb VP anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic/Western Africa were off the chart for June 2022, rivaled only by last year's June. Below are 200mb VP anomalies for June of the past 20 years and a few composites:

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Here is a composite of years where ACE was over 145:
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Composite of years where ACE was below 80:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1425 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Jul 02, 2022 3:19 pm

tolakram wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
With all of this talk about the TUTT, I just have to wonder but does anybody have an idea on how prevalent the TUTT was in years like 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, or 2017? Seems like there's quite a bit of emphasis on how it can cause a season to perform less than expected, but I am curious to see what history has to say about it as well.


Not sure about most of the years, but I know 2017 had a huge TUTT present until about late August. There was talk of a possible inactive season and then August 20th came and so did Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria, and so on. What happens before August 20th concerning TUTTs is not very important to me.


There are full seasonal sat loops that are interesting to look at for persistent features.

NWSLakeCharles https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSLakeCharles/videos

2005
https://youtu.be/0UCExBpxrDM

2017
https://youtu.be/FJB3WSTpHM0

1995
https://youtu.be/a6wbOaBzOIg


Watching those videos, it really drives home how 2005 had very little if any meaningful MDR activity
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1426 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:56 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1427 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:58 am

Like I said in an earlier post...welcome to your summer break from Hurricane School. It should last about 3 weeks as the MJO makes its way back around at which time class will be in session.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1428 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:50 pm

Hi wxman57, are you still holding firm with your landfall potential threats this season? Also what steering are you basing this on if you don’t mind me asking. The ecmwf seasonal update numbers is coming up very and I am personally very interested to see if it doubles down on its 200+ ace forecast.

Thanks!

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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1429 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:59 pm

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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1430 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:15 pm

The Gulf and loop current continue to go nuts

Image

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Here’s 2005 for comparison

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1431 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:31 pm


Ventrice has been oddly insistent on a weakening of the current La Nina conditions as a result of the MJO progression this year. In addition, he's also been a stickler for the attempted (all failed) rise of the Pacific subsurface warm pool, despite similar progressions and warm anomalies failing to produce said effects long-term and ultimately resulting in a reinforcing of the current La Nina regime. Feels like he's missing the forest for the trees a little. Anyway, I'm not sure if it's worth putting stock in a forecasted MJO movement weakening the favorability of the peak season when it's also been forecasted we'll see a prolonged cooling period of the Nino 3-4 regions through a re-enhancement of the trade winds. Feels a bit disingenuous to say we've got a weakening La Nina especially when it'll most likely be countered and re-ramping up by the time we get closer to August.

Not to mention that the MJO progression is far from the only thing influencing tropical cyclone activity, and years like 2021 (which was pretty much solely driven by said MJO progression and a bit by passing CCKWs) are not exactly the norm. They're probably right in that we shouldn't expect anything in terms of tropical origins forming until we get closer to August, but put too many eggs in one basket and you'll find yourself out of luck more often than not.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1432 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:36 pm

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:Ventrice has been oddly insistent on a weakening of the current La Nina conditions as a result of the MJO progression this year. In addition, he's also been a stickler for the attempted (all failed) rise of the Pacific subsurface warm pool, despite similar progressions and warm anomalies failing to produce said effects long-term and ultimately resulting in a reinforcing of the current La Nina regime. Feels like he's missing the forest for the trees a little. Anyway, I'm not sure if it's worth putting stock in a forecasted MJO movement weakening the favorability of the peak season when it's also been forecasted we'll see a prolonged cooling period of the Nino 3-4 regions through a re-enhancement of the trade winds. Feels a bit disingenuous to say we've got a weakening La Nina especially when it'll most likely be countered and re-ramping up by the time we get closer to August.

Not to mention that the MJO progression is far from the only thing influencing tropical cyclone activity, and years like 2021 (which was pretty much solely driven by said MJO progression and a bit by passing CCKWs) are not exactly the norm. They're probably right in that we shouldn't expect anything in terms of tropical origins forming until we get closer to August, but put too many eggs in one basket and you'll find yourself out of luck more often than not.


Right. Because as we all know, this is exactly what one expects to see during a supposed "seasonal weakening" of a La Nina

Image

Oh, nevermind it's just the complete antithesis.
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1433 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:42 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:Ventrice has been oddly insistent on a weakening of the current La Nina conditions as a result of the MJO progression this year. In addition, he's also been a stickler for the attempted (all failed) rise of the Pacific subsurface warm pool, despite similar progressions and warm anomalies failing to produce said effects long-term and ultimately resulting in a reinforcing of the current La Nina regime. Feels like he's missing the forest for the trees a little. Anyway, I'm not sure if it's worth putting stock in a forecasted MJO movement weakening the favorability of the peak season when it's also been forecasted we'll see a prolonged cooling period of the Nino 3-4 regions through a re-enhancement of the trade winds. Feels a bit disingenuous to say we've got a weakening La Nina especially when it'll most likely be countered and re-ramping up by the time we get closer to August.

Not to mention that the MJO progression is far from the only thing influencing tropical cyclone activity, and years like 2021 (which was pretty much solely driven by said MJO progression and a bit by passing CCKWs) are not exactly the norm. They're probably right in that we shouldn't expect anything in terms of tropical origins forming until we get closer to August, but put too many eggs in one basket and you'll find yourself out of luck more often than not.


Right. Because as we all know, this is exactly what one expects to see during a supposed "seasonal weakening" of a La Nina

Image

Oh, nevermind it's just the complete antithesis.

Think you are reading a bit too much into his tweet, he said there is some risk for destructive interference not that it’s definitely going to happen. I am not the biggest fan of Ventrice myself (mostly because i agree with everything NXStump said about him) but what he said is a possible scenario.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1434 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:28 pm

skyline385 wrote:Think you are reading a bit too much into his tweet, he said there is some risk for destructive interference not that it’s definitely going to happen. I am not the biggest fan of Ventrice myself (mostly because i agree with everything NXStump said about him) but what he said is a possible scenario.


With all due respect I think you misunderstood me. I agree that destructive interference is possible; all ENSO events except the strongest have periods of destructive interference. What I specifically took issue with is him arguing that La Nina is weakening intraseasonally RIGHT NOW  https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1543589816448720896


due to a downwelling cycle even weaker than the previous one earlier in the year whilst trades are, according to Klotzbach, likely within the top five strongest bursts ever observed this time of year. That is the problem.

A better argument would be that the intraseasonal weakening has already occurred and is now reversing given the upwelling Kelvin wave now emerging. In other words, the intraseasonal weakening is no longer happening RIGHT NOW. Hope that makes sense, cheers.
Last edited by weeniepatrol on Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1435 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:30 pm

skyline385 wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:Ventrice has been oddly insistent on a weakening of the current La Nina conditions as a result of the MJO progression this year. In addition, he's also been a stickler for the attempted (all failed) rise of the Pacific subsurface warm pool, despite similar progressions and warm anomalies failing to produce said effects long-term and ultimately resulting in a reinforcing of the current La Nina regime. Feels like he's missing the forest for the trees a little. Anyway, I'm not sure if it's worth putting stock in a forecasted MJO movement weakening the favorability of the peak season when it's also been forecasted we'll see a prolonged cooling period of the Nino 3-4 regions through a re-enhancement of the trade winds. Feels a bit disingenuous to say we've got a weakening La Nina especially when it'll most likely be countered and re-ramping up by the time we get closer to August.

Not to mention that the MJO progression is far from the only thing influencing tropical cyclone activity, and years like 2021 (which was pretty much solely driven by said MJO progression and a bit by passing CCKWs) are not exactly the norm. They're probably right in that we shouldn't expect anything in terms of tropical origins forming until we get closer to August, but put too many eggs in one basket and you'll find yourself out of luck more often than not.


Right. Because as we all know, this is exactly what one expects to see during a supposed "seasonal weakening" of a La Nina

https://i.imgur.com/nvn0bSH.gif

Oh, nevermind it's just the complete antithesis.

Think you are reading a bit too much into his tweet, he said there is some risk for destructive interference not that it’s definitely going to happen. I am not the biggest fan of Ventrice myself (mostly because i agree with everything NXStump said about him) but what he said is a possible scenario.


It’s possible but quite unlikely.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1436 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:01 am

As I remember Ventrice was talking about a quiet period in 2017 a week or 2 before Irma and Maria
I have to go back and verify that.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1437 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:31 am

AtlanticWind wrote:As I remember Ventrice was talking about a quiet period in 2017 a week or 2 before Irma and Maria
I have to go back and verify that.

He was, its in the comments and he isn’t doing himself any favor there.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1438 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:07 am

skyline385 wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:As I remember Ventrice was talking about a quiet period in 2017 a week or 2 before Irma and Maria
I have to go back and verify that.

He was, its in the comments and he isn’t doing himself any favor there.


Yea, let's go easy and just stick to refuting forecasts. You can see some drama (DRAMA ON TWITTER?!?) in a back and forth he's having over the 2017 prediction. The safe and easy route is to never make predictions, then one avoids criticism. I don't think it's appropriate to compare a current prediction to a past bad prediction.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1439 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:39 am

tolakram wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:As I remember Ventrice was talking about a quiet period in 2017 a week or 2 before Irma and Maria
I have to go back and verify that.

He was, its in the comments and he isn’t doing himself any favor there.


Yea, let's go easy and just stick to refuting forecasts. You can see some drama (DRAMA ON TWITTER?!?) in a back and forth he's having over the 2017 prediction. The safe and easy route is to never make predictions, then one avoids criticism. I don't think it's appropriate to compare a current prediction to a past bad prediction.


Yeah, definitely time to move on from that one; it was five years ago lol.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1440 Postby jconsor » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:53 am

Thread on the "missing" warmth in the eastern subtropical Atlantic (part of the +AMO tripole signature) and why it is expected to return in mid to late Jul.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1543929891732742144




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1543933648428212227




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1543936393239461891




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1543940036730560513


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