2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1441 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:30 am

tolakram wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:As I remember Ventrice was talking about a quiet period in 2017 a week or 2 before Irma and Maria
I have to go back and verify that.

He was, its in the comments and he isn’t doing himself any favor there.


Yea, let's go easy and just stick to refuting forecasts. You can see some drama (DRAMA ON TWITTER?!?) in a back and forth he's having over the 2017 prediction. The safe and easy route is to never make predictions, then one avoids criticism. I don't think it's appropriate to compare a current prediction to a past bad prediction.

I 100% agree on that, that’s why i said in my original post - “do not look in the comments” as i didn’t want to start the same here.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1442 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:13 am

skyline385 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
skyline385 wrote:He was, its in the comments and he isn’t doing himself any favor there.


Yea, let's go easy and just stick to refuting forecasts. You can see some drama (DRAMA ON TWITTER?!?) in a back and forth he's having over the 2017 prediction. The safe and easy route is to never make predictions, then one avoids criticism. I don't think it's appropriate to compare a current prediction to a past bad prediction.

I 100% agree on that, that’s why i said in my original post - “do not look in the comments” as i didn’t want to start the same here.

Although, you saying "don't look at the comments" makes me, personally go straight to the comments to see why you said not to...human nature at work there.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1443 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:30 am

CFS continues to show low level anomalous westerlies for the last 2 weeks of July in the MDR.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1444 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:CFS continues to show low level anomalous westerlies for the last 2 weeks of July in the MDR.


Do you have the graphic of CFS?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1445 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:22 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Yea, let's go easy and just stick to refuting forecasts. You can see some drama (DRAMA ON TWITTER?!?) in a back and forth he's having over the 2017 prediction. The safe and easy route is to never make predictions, then one avoids criticism. I don't think it's appropriate to compare a current prediction to a past bad prediction.

I 100% agree on that, that’s why i said in my original post - “do not look in the comments” as i didn’t want to start the same here.

Although, you saying "don't look at the comments" makes me, personally go straight to the comments to see why you said not to...human nature at work there.

I figured that might happen but hey I tried :D
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1446 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:49 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Yea, let's go easy and just stick to refuting forecasts. You can see some drama (DRAMA ON TWITTER?!?) in a back and forth he's having over the 2017 prediction. The safe and easy route is to never make predictions, then one avoids criticism. I don't think it's appropriate to compare a current prediction to a past bad prediction.

I 100% agree on that, that’s why i said in my original post - “do not look in the comments” as i didn’t want to start the same here.

Although, you saying "don't look at the comments" makes me, personally go straight to the comments to see why you said not to...human nature at work there.


I have that same issue. :oops:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1447 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:43 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Yea, let's go easy and just stick to refuting forecasts. You can see some drama (DRAMA ON TWITTER?!?) in a back and forth he's having over the 2017 prediction. The safe and easy route is to never make predictions, then one avoids criticism. I don't think it's appropriate to compare a current prediction to a past bad prediction.

I 100% agree on that, that’s why i said in my original post - “do not look in the comments” as i didn’t want to start the same here.

Although, you saying "don't look at the comments" makes me, personally go straight to the comments to see why you said not to...human nature at work there.


Oh yeah, the first thing I did was go read the comments. That's a no brainer lol

Anywho, Uncle SAL making it nice and dry in the MDR right now. Tis the season!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1448 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:29 pm

toad strangler wrote:Oh yeah, the first thing I did was go read the comments. That's a no brainer lol

Anywho, Uncle SAL making it nice and dry in the MDR right now. Tis the season!


Sounds like 2013 to me!

Happy 4th everyone, may the Atlantic stay quiescent and tranquil for months :flag:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1449 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:59 pm

skyline385 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
skyline385 wrote:He was, its in the comments and he isn’t doing himself any favor there.


Yea, let's go easy and just stick to refuting forecasts. You can see some drama (DRAMA ON TWITTER?!?) in a back and forth he's having over the 2017 prediction. The safe and easy route is to never make predictions, then one avoids criticism. I don't think it's appropriate to compare a current prediction to a past bad prediction.

I 100% agree on that, that’s why i said in my original post - “do not look in the comments” as i didn’t want to start the same here.

I didnt know anything about the twitter comments until now, and I did not mean any disrespect to Dr Ventrice
but I only pointed out him being wrong on that occasion was I have always thought the MJO
effect was sometimes overdone especially during peak season .
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1450 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:59 pm

Going to see a fair bit of cooling in the MDR next week

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1451 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:56 am

ehhh...

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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1452 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:25 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1453 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:59 am



I'm personally not surprised by this. However, it's still predicting a season with 140% the norm in terms of ACE, which is roughly 185-190 ACE. That's still a formidable season if it pans out imho
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1454 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:26 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:


I'm personally not surprised by this. However, it's still predicting a season with 140% the norm in terms of ACE, which is roughly 185-190 ACE. That's still a formidable season if it pans out imho

Yeah that’s still easily hyperactive, and above 2020 by ACE
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1455 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:27 am

Quite frankly i care less the euro went down on its numbers. It still shows hyperactive season! More importantly taking a look at the Ecmwf steering you can surely see more red over SE Canada which implies more ridging. Ots stuff all blue impling less recurves of potential cv storms. 185 ace would be about 2020 level but it depends on how many long trackers we get though.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1456 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:16 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:


I'm personally not surprised by this. However, it's still predicting a season with 140% the norm in terms of ACE, which is roughly 185-190 ACE. That's still a formidable season if it pans out imho

Yeah that’s still easily hyperactive, and above 2020 by ACE

Yes but it’s no longer predicting its highest season forecast ever which lots of folks were taking at face value before so that’s important imo. ACE of 160-180 is what a lot of experts have been saying and falls in line with the predictions.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1457 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:19 am

SFLcane wrote:Quite frankly i care less the euro went down on its numbers. It still shows hyperactive season! More importantly taking a look at the Ecmwf steering you can surely see more red over SE Canada which implies more ridging. Ots stuff all blue impling less recurves of potential cv storms. 185 ace would be about 2020 level but it depends on how many long trackers we get though.

Image

Image

Image

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536875899118755840


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1458 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:29 am

skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Quite frankly i care less the euro went down on its numbers. It still shows hyperactive season! More importantly taking a look at the Ecmwf steering you can surely see more red over SE Canada which implies more ridging. Ots stuff all blue impling less recurves of potential cv storms. 185 ace would be about 2020 level but it depends on how many long trackers we get though.

https://i.postimg.cc/vZ8fJbLD/ridge2.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/cH6rhJWG/ss.png

https://i.postimg.cc/HnHVb96j/ridge.png

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536875899118755840


Lol what are you showing me? Thats nearly a month old now. z500 images i posted are from the new ecmwf which came out this morning.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1459 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:34 am

SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Quite frankly i care less the euro went down on its numbers. It still shows hyperactive season! More importantly taking a look at the Ecmwf steering you can surely see more red over SE Canada which implies more ridging. Ots stuff all blue impling less recurves of potential cv storms. 185 ace would be about 2020 level but it depends on how many long trackers we get though.

https://i.postimg.cc/vZ8fJbLD/ridge2.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/cH6rhJWG/ss.png

https://i.postimg.cc/HnHVb96j/ridge.png

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536875899118755840


Lol what are you showing me? Thats nearly a month old now. z500 images i posted are from the new ecmwf which came out this morning.

Look at his analysis on the ridging in that tweet which hasn’t changed much (keeping in mind the EURO’s ridge bias), he talks about how the ridging being that far out can also mean more recurves.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1460 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:39 am

skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:


Lol what are you showing me? Thats nearly a month old now. z500 images i posted are from the new ecmwf which came out this morning.

Look at his analysis on the ridging in that tweet which hasn’t changed much (keeping in mind the EURO’s ridge bias), he talks about how the ridging being that far out can also mean more recurves.


Ridge bias? lol. Like i said thats more then a month old now. Sure it changed look at the reds on this mornings ecmwf update over SE Canada that ususally means more ridging.

Image

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1544329474409480192


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