2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve]

Looks like Icon might have hit on sniffing out the low. No way this isn’t turning counterclockwise even in IR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

And good for south Texas to hopefully get a few inches of rain. Texas was the next place to look if there was going to be anything close to the US, but I’m not thinking it will get classified. It’s short term now, and the MJO is moving into 1 in the next day or so (caveat - ECMWF delays the move into 1-2 whereas the JMA does not), My guess is the ceiling is likely TD but you can’t ever discount any system in the west gulf in August as they are known to tighten close to landfall. I still think there may be a system along the Mexican Coast next week which would have likely been stronger if energy would have focused in the Gulf a few days later

[skyline385]

Well no update from NHC on the 2 AM advisory regarding the disturbance, probably because there isn't much convection going on. All the models also seem to suggest a very weak TD if it develops at all.

[Nimbus]

These gulf front remnant systems are usually slow to develop even after we spot the circulation.
Hopefully will be inland over Texas before it gets named(I only voted for 1 named storm in August).

[Wampadawg]

We have a lemon to give something to talk about

[ChrisH-UK]

A lot of the mesoscale models have a few lows dropping off the east coast as a front pulls away, the GOM feature is the end of the front that gets left behind as it pulls away to the north east. With the way things are in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico the littlest thing could blow up into the storm like we had with Colin.

[wxman57]

With any luck, we'll make it through August with no Danielle. Certainly possible. I'm glad I went 15/7/3 in the office hurricane pool, though that could be too high. Things can change quickly across the basin.

[skyline385]

With any luck, we'll make it through August with no Danielle. Certainly possible. I'm glad I went 15/7/3 in the office hurricane pool, though that could be too high. Things can change quickly across the basin.

Don’t tell the folks in the SST indicators thread that you think 15/7/3 might be possibly too high, everyone’s gonna be depressed there lol

I find it kinda fascinating how U of A was the first one to predict 140-ish ACE in June when everyone and all seasonal models were going at 160-200 ACE and they might end up being the closest. Of course anything can happen in the Atlantic in the next few weeks so nothing is guaranteed.


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[NotSparta]

With any luck, we'll make it through August with no Danielle. Certainly possible. I'm glad I went 15/7/3 in the office hurricane pool, though that could be too high. Things can change quickly across the basin.

It would sure be difficult to get through August without a single named storm

[cajungal]

Andrew didn’t form until August 22nd if I remember correctly. And just that 1 made it a horrible year for south Florida and south central Louisiana. As we are still in recovery mode here in SE Louisiana, the quiet has been nice.

[Spacecoast]

Ensembles
EPS:

GEFS: - Nova Scotia??

[Hammy]

Andrew didn’t form until August 22nd if I remember correctly. And just that 1 made it a horrible year for south Florida and south central Louisiana. As we are still in recovery mode here in SE Louisiana, the quiet has been nice.

Andrew became a hurricane on the 22nd--I believe it formed on the 16th.

These gulf front remnant systems are usually slow to develop even after we spot the circulation.
Hopefully will be inland over Texas before it gets named(I only voted for 1 named storm in August).

2018 had nothing in the MDR between early July and September 1 and only two weak storms in the north Atlantic--and since middle of last season the Atlantic hasn't exactly been in a hurry to produce decent storms of non-tropical origin. For all we know this could be the only storm this month if it forms.

[cajungal]

Andrew didn’t form until August 22nd if I remember correctly. And just that 1 made it a horrible year for south Florida and south central Louisiana. As we are still in recovery mode here in SE Louisiana, the quiet has been nice.

Andrew became a hurricane on the 22nd--I believe it formed on the 16th.

Yes it was just hard to remember as it has been a long time. I had just turned 16 and started my jr year of high school. Living in Terrebonne parish we got hit hard but not as hard as what we got hit with by Ida. Ida lasted far longer and way more extensive damage.

[cycloneye]

At least there is something in MDR that Euro has.

[caneman]

Looks like Icon might have hit on sniffing out the low. No way this isn’t turning counterclockwise even in IR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

And good for south Texas to hopefully get a few inches of rain. Texas was the next place to look if there was going to be anything close to the US, but I’m not thinking it will get classified. It’s short term now, and the MJO is moving into 1 in the next day or so (caveat - ECMWF delays the move into 1-2 whereas the JMA does not), My guess is the ceiling is likely TD but you can’t ever discount any system in the west gulf in August as they are known to tighten close to landfall. I still think there may be a system along the Mexican Coast next week which would have likely been stronger if energy would have focused in the Gulf a few days
later

Nice call on this brother. Hope you are well my former Central Florida Hurricane pal.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS was rather active in the E MDR for week 2. Consistent with this, the last 3 Euro op runs ending with today's 12Z have a weak surface low that comes off Africa ~8/19 and then moves WSW due to a rather strong Azores high to its north. This is a low that the EPS has been showing for most of this week's runs. Don't ignore this one although the GFS and CMC ops don't have this.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS hour 360:

[Nimbus]

That was my concern, that some of these African waves would still be at low latitude entering the Caribbean and might develop later. We will see what kind of pressure gradient the current wave near that location has when it passes over the islands. Doesn't take much of a pressure gradient against a higher background to get the convective feedback vaccuum machine started if they track into better conditions without SAL, stable air and shear.

[skyline385]

12Z EPS hour 360:
https://i.imgur.com/lUVXElU.png

FWIW, EPS 12Z has those low latitude systems entering the Caribbean as well. There aren't that many members but not nothing.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wow, you would think it was the middle of July or something based on lack of activity. Hard to believe only 2 more weeks left until September. Perhaps my prediction of no Hurricanes until the first week of September will come true afterall..............

Most years the Atlantic is inactive until the 2nd half of August which we're still not at yet. I think people are spoiled by all the hyperactive seasons we've had. This is pretty normal all things considered lol

[Kingarabian]

GFS and CMC have some sort of BOC system in about 7 days.