2022 CPAC Season
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- cycloneye
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2022 CPAC Season
Is expected to be a below average season with between 2 to 4 named storms thanks to La Niña. Here is the NOAA outlook for this basin.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season
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- AnnularCane
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Re: 2022 CPAC season
Two to four named storms.
I know it's the CPAC, but I wonder what it would take for the Atlantic to get such a prediction. Probably the El Nino to end all El Ninos for starters.
I know it's the CPAC, but I wonder what it would take for the Atlantic to get such a prediction. Probably the El Nino to end all El Ninos for starters.
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 CPAC season
AnnularCane wrote:Two to four named storms.
I know it's the CPAC, but I wonder what it would take for the Atlantic to get such a prediction. Probably the El Nino to end all El Ninos for starters.
If you only counted storms with tropical origins the Atlantic would rival that level of inactivity in -AMO’s.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC season
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Darby centered about 2600 miles
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Tropical Storm Darby is expected to move
into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility
late Thursday.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Blood
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Darby centered about 2600 miles
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Tropical Storm Darby is expected to move
into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility
late Thursday.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Blood
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Ex Bonnie remanants getting closer to Hawaii and what will be left of Darby will bring rain.
https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1547000275218546689
https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1547000275218546689
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
With La Niña present, this basin aparently will have something to track south of Hawaii.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Fri Aug 5 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Environmental
conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves
westward toward and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster EATON
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Fri Aug 5 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Environmental
conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves
westward toward and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster EATON
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
With the right track and if it gets it together, as noted by Kingarabian in the EPAC thread could be a beauty. Also a lot of ACE with that kind of track.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Aug 5 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin this weekend. Environmental
conditions should allow for some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part
of next week while it moves quickly westward over the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster EATON
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Aug 5 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin this weekend. Environmental
conditions should allow for some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part
of next week while it moves quickly westward over the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster EATON
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Shouldn't be a Hawaii threat according to guidance. Makes sense since the WPAC has been dead with no recurving Typhoon remnants to break the ridge.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Sat Aug 6 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form well southeast or south of the
main Hawaiian Islands Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions
could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves quickly westward over the
central Pacific during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
Forecaster Wroe
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Sat Aug 6 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form well southeast or south of the
main Hawaiian Islands Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions
could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves quickly westward over the
central Pacific during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
Forecaster Wroe
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Euro and CMC still show a robust disturbance in regards to the 0/40 AOI. GFS continues to have a robust TC developing. I would say odds are much higher than 0/40 over the next 5 days. GFS Shifts it closer to Kauai but still too far west for any impacts. Still a long way out and I think the most likely scenario here is a weak TC developing and moving west past the DL.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
And now there are two. All of this with La Niña.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sun Aug 7 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. Well South of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form late Tuesday or Wednesday
within a broad trough several hundred miles south of the main
Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions could allow for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form as it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific later
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Well East-Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than
1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through the middle part of
this week while it moves generally westward into the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
Forecaster Wroe
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sun Aug 7 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. Well South of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form late Tuesday or Wednesday
within a broad trough several hundred miles south of the main
Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions could allow for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form as it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific later
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Well East-Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than
1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through the middle part of
this week while it moves generally westward into the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
Forecaster Wroe
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Think it's worth a designation?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Probably close to a TC now but the CPHC is extremely strict.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:Probably close to a TC now but the CPHC is extremely strict.
CPHC gonna CPHC
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1558236805983510528
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
skyline385 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Probably close to a TC now but the CPHC is extremely strict.
CPHC gonna CPHC
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1558236805983510528?s=20&t=1RnSzcOLUlijSvWvcu5WCQ
It is what it is
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
Will something develop from this?
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Fri Nov 25 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. A trough of low pressure about 900 miles southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area
of low pressure is expected to develop along the trough over the
weekend, and some slow development of this system is possible early
next week as it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Fri Nov 25 2022
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. A trough of low pressure about 900 miles southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area
of low pressure is expected to develop along the trough over the
weekend, and some slow development of this system is possible early
next week as it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 CPAC Season
GFS and ECMWF are bullish.
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