2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1261 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS and CMC have some sort of BOC system in about 7 days.


Didn’t the 12z EPS have some support for that area too?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1262 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 13, 2022 12:13 am

0z GFS is trying to spin up a TD/weak TS in the western gulf right around 8/20
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1263 Postby canebeard » Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:18 am

Say, hopefully for cane lovers, this 200 mb prog for August 29th. won't verify. Nothing like a high over low block near peak of season to ruin one's optimism. I've seen it happen before.



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Last edited by canebeard on Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1264 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:18 am

ElectricStorm wrote:0z GFS is trying to spin up a TD/weak TS in the western gulf right around 8/20


It's been persistently trending east/stronger too over the last several runs.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1265 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:14 am

All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone watching this? This could become the next NS.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1266 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:14 am

Some signs of life on the 0z Euro

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1267 Postby REDHurricane » Sat Aug 13, 2022 5:05 am

LarryWx wrote:All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone watching this? This could become the next NS.


Looks like it would be too far north to be considered a tropical system, no? All 3 of GFS, ECMWF, and CMC have something maybe forming around 40°N in a few days, but these vorticity signatures don't look as tightly wrapped as a typical tropical storm would be. Maybe if that trough comes off the east coast a bit further south it could end up a named storm though, the water is definitely warm enough to support development.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1268 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Aug 13, 2022 6:54 am

The GFS has a storm hitting the North East on Wednesday.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1269 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 13, 2022 7:00 am

Very long range, for the 29th in Western Caribbean.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1270 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:38 am

ChrisH-UK wrote:The GFS has a storm hitting the North East on Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/GARGysf.png


Imho, verbatim, the 6Z GFS does have a NS going into New England whether purely tropical or not as it is at least a STS and probably is a strong TS. I say TS because it first forms a sfc low east of NC where it is a very warm 29-30 C and it then gets down to 996 mb by the time it reaches 40N, which is how far north the 26 C line gets.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1271 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:45 am

REDHurricane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone watching this? This could become the next NS.


Looks like it would be too far north to be considered a tropical system, no? All 3 of GFS, ECMWF, and CMC have something maybe forming around 40°N in a few days, but these vorticity signatures don't look as tightly wrapped as a typical tropical storm would be. Maybe if that trough comes off the east coast a bit further south it could end up a named storm though, the water is definitely warm enough to support development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022081300/gfs_z850_vort_atl_19.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022081300/gem_z850_vort_atl_16.png


Don't forget that a STS would also be a NS, which is what I was referring to. With the 26C line going as far north as 40N now, these 0Z models could be showing a NS although perhaps a subtropical NS. I would say that the 6Z GFS likely verbatim has a TS as it forms a sfc low E of NC, where SSTs are very warm..29-30C..and then it gets down to 996 mb by the time it reaches 40N.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1272 Postby NotSparta » Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:03 am

ChrisH-UK wrote:The GFS has a storm hitting the North East on Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/GARGysf.png


Looks like a nor'easter to me, the way it interacts with the jet leads me to believe it's at the very least totally extratropical
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1273 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:14 am

NotSparta wrote:
ChrisH-UK wrote:The GFS has a storm hitting the North East on Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/GARGysf.png


Looks like a nor'easter to me, the way it interacts with the jet leads me to believe it's at the very least totally extratropical


With it forming on the 6Z GFS over 29-30 C waters east of NC by Tuesday and with it then staying over 29-30 C SSTs for 12 hours afterward along with waters that don't get below 26 C til off of central NJ (40N), I disagree that this is totally extratropical as depicted on the 6Z GFS.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1274 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:41 am

Remember these global models may not pick up on genesis until we are within 5 days. There is a reason the NHC only goes out 5 days in their outlooks. A 16 day GFS run showing nothing (or something) doesn’t mean much. Think back to Dorian in the Bahamas and other major hurricanes that have hit the Gulf coast over the least few years. Some of the 5+ day forecast from these models from what actually happened especially from an intensity standpoint were so far off it was unbelievable.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1275 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:57 am

Look out on the 12Z GFS NE US! There's little doubt that that is a NS (TS or STS) and probably imho a TS.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1276 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:08 am

LarryWx wrote:Look out on the 12Z GFS NE US! There's little doubt that that is a NS (TS or STS) and probably imho a TS.


Saved loop through day 5:

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1277 Postby NotSparta » Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:12 am

LarryWx wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
ChrisH-UK wrote:The GFS has a storm hitting the North East on Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/GARGysf.png


Looks like a nor'easter to me, the way it interacts with the jet leads me to believe it's at the very least totally extratropical


With it forming on the 6Z GFS over 29-30 C waters east of NC by Tuesday and with it then staying over 29-30 C SSTs for 12 hours afterward along with waters that don't get below 26 C til off of central NJ (40N), I disagree that this is totally extratropical as depicted on the 6Z GFS.


This evolution in the upper levels suggests it's anything but tropical. Looks about as you'd expect for a nor'easter type storm. Those waters might mean it has nice convection in spots but it still looks extratropical

Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1278 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:17 am

NotSparta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Looks like a nor'easter to me, the way it interacts with the jet leads me to believe it's at the very least totally extratropical


With it forming on the 6Z GFS over 29-30 C waters east of NC by Tuesday and with it then staying over 29-30 C SSTs for 12 hours afterward along with waters that don't get below 26 C til off of central NJ (40N), I disagree that this is totally extratropical as depicted on the 6Z GFS.


This evolution in the upper levels suggests it's anything but tropical. Looks about as you'd expect for a nor'easter type storm. Those waters might mean it has nice convection in spots but it still looks extratropical

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1008044802585137262/phasing_troughs.gif


You don't even think this is a STS considering its origins on Tuesday over 84-86 F SSTs?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1279 Postby NotSparta » Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:21 am

LarryWx wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
With it forming on the 6Z GFS over 29-30 C waters east of NC by Tuesday and with it then staying over 29-30 C SSTs for 12 hours afterward along with waters that don't get below 26 C til off of central NJ (40N), I disagree that this is totally extratropical as depicted on the 6Z GFS.


This evolution in the upper levels suggests it's anything but tropical. Looks about as you'd expect for a nor'easter type storm. Those waters might mean it has nice convection in spots but it still looks extratropical

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1008044802585137262/phasing_troughs.gif


You don't even think this is a STS considering its origins on Tuesday over 84-86 F SSTs?


It could try to become one but that upper pattern is what you'd see with a nor'easter in the winter. Doesn't inspire confidence of tropical system
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1280 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:24 am

NotSparta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
This evolution in the upper levels suggests it's anything but tropical. Looks about as you'd expect for a nor'easter type storm. Those waters might mean it has nice convection in spots but it still looks extratropical

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1008044802585137262/phasing_troughs.gif


You don't even think this is a STS considering its origins on Tuesday over 84-86 F SSTs?


It could try to become one but that upper pattern is what you'd see with a nor'easter in the winter. Doesn't inspire confidence of tropical system


Let's see if NHC mentions it at the 2PM TWO.
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