2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[NDG]

Western GOM is definitely the area to watch again during the upcoming week.

[skyline385]

12Z GFS has another EPAC system at 240 hours

[AutoPenalti]

EPAC with a last hurrah before the flip occurs.

[lsuhurricane]

12z EPS coming in extremely hot at the 10 day mark. Operational also modeled a TD holding together in the eastern Atlantic

[Iceresistance]

12z EPS coming in extremely hot at the 10 day mark. Operational also modeled a TD holding together in the eastern Atlantic

Joe B has this too

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1558881447888527363

[aspen]

12z EPS coming in extremely hot at the 10 day mark. Operational also modeled a TD holding together in the eastern Atlantic

Joe B has this too

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1558881447888527363?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Control is probably overkill, but if the ensembles start picking up, then maybe there will be a MDR system in 10 days or so followed by some strong waves. Or we could spend the rest of the month wondering where the Euro’s MDR systems are.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z EPS coming in extremely hot at the 10 day mark. Operational also modeled a TD holding together in the eastern Atlantic

A bit high in latitude compared to normal but not to the extent of the bogus ones the Euro likes to spit out at times. Would like to see support from elsewhere though before expressing any significant interest.

[skyline385]

12z EPS coming in extremely hot at the 10 day mark. Operational also modeled a TD holding together in the eastern Atlantic

A bit high in latitude compared to normal but not to the extent of the bogus ones the Euro likes to spit out at times. Would like to see support from elsewhere though before expressing any significant interest.

Yea 12Z EPS was decently active but it's the only one so far and considering the fact that it has busted twice this season in the MDR, we need more confirmation.

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[Hammy]

12z EPS coming in extremely hot at the 10 day mark. Operational also modeled a TD holding together in the eastern Atlantic

A bit high in latitude compared to normal but not to the extent of the bogus ones the Euro likes to spit out at times. Would like to see support from elsewhere though before expressing any significant interest.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1008450955366383706/9-km_ECMWF_Global_Pressure_Tropical_Atlantic_East_MDR_Simulated_IR_Satellite.gif
https://i.ibb.co/v41YDj9/3d929d0f-5c5f-4940-b434-ff88330c0387.gif
https://i.ibb.co/wKRyn0v/ecens-2022-08-14-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Yea 12Z EPS was decently active but it's the only one so far and considering the fact that it has busted twice this season in the MDR, we need more confirmation.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220814/7efc64c311885466afb4b585305a2e55.jpg

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The most notable thing on the ensembles is you're starting to have more green lines coming off further south--the monsoon trough looks like it'll finally settle down around the end of the month, and the operational model shows something similar: waves go from moving NW into the monsoon trough, to coming off at a high latitude, to moving southwest as they come off, and then there are hints of them starting off further south at the end of the run:

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS showed its EPAC bias again. I think the model is still adjusting to where the favorability is in the atmosphere. I think once it settles down and figures out the EPAC is in the suppressed phase, it will start popping off some Atlantic systems.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF… Go time??

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/S23Njc2Q/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-fh162-240.gif [/url]

12z ECMWF… Go time??

That is incredibility tiny for a GIF, I've put it into Gifyu for it to be much larger and better for all of us to see. (I had to squint my eyes to see it properly. )


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_z850_vort_atl_fh162-240.gif

[Hammy]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/S23Njc2Q/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-fh162-240.gif [/url]

12z ECMWF… Go time??

That is incredibility tiny for a GIF, I've put it into Gifyu for it to be much larger and better for all of us to see. (I had to squint my eyes to see it properly. )

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_z850_vort_atl_fh162-240.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_z850_vort_atl_fh162-240.gif

It'll go to full size if clicked

[skyline385]

12z ECMWF… Go time??

Looking at the background on the ECMWF itself, probably not. It’s the same on the GFS as well, it could be the Euro’s MDR bias which is getting some spin on it.







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[LarryWx]

The 18Z GEFS is rather active with the AEW coming off on 8/19 fwiw. This is the AEW preceding the one that the Euro/EPS developed.

[Blown Away]

The 18Z GEFS is rather active with the AEW coming off on 8/19 fwiw. This is the AEW preceding the one that the Euro/EPS developed.

Agree, as active as we have seen this season. Atlantic is coming alive.

[Cpv17]

The 18Z GEFS is rather active with the AEW coming off on 8/19 fwiw. This is the AEW preceding the one that the Euro/EPS developed.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/yYS1S4Lw/7-AE5-D4-D8-215-D-47-AF-8-A18-3-DD37-AC8-B76-C.jpg [/url]

Agree, as active as we have seen this season. Atlantic is coming alive.

I sure hope so. I think us weather junkies need something to look forward to.

[lsuhurricane]

Someone at NCEP finally decided to input the August conditions into the GFS. Really coming alive mid-run. Think we’re finally seeing that switch. Cue the seasonal flowchart

[skyline385]

This GFS run is going to cheer up the people here

Also, the Caribbean is looking very moist, the wave just needs to get there

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs waking up

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 500&fh=264