Tropical Wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[Landy]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
later today and tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to
be marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early
to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

[cycloneye]

Split the posts from the other wave thread as this is a new one.

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
later today and tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to
be marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early
to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has this as a TD/TS within the next 72 hours. I think it deserves a tag. Unless these are two waves combining with the one just within Africa?

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, what GFS develops is this wave and not the other one in front.

[Kingarabian]

Why does the NHC have the 'X' inland Africa though. GFS is developing something already off the coast unless I'm mistaken.

[cycloneye]

Why does the NHC have the 'X' inland Africa though. GFS is developing something already off the coast unless I'm mistaken.

At 2 PM it will be off the coast as it has been introduced around 19W.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_12Z.gif

Wave location , now off coast

[cycloneye]

Cone more west.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during
the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

From 18:05 UTC discussion.

A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa early this
morning is now analyzed along 19.5W, from 11N to 23N, with an
estimated westward motion of 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection, likely enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is from 11N to
18N between 18W and 24W. This tropical wave has a low chance of
tropical cyclone development over the next five days.

[Hurricaneman]

This seems to be coming together farther south than the models had it, most models had it coming together just north of the CV islands

[aspen]

I think this wave will either die off and clear out dry air ahead of the second wave — the one that most other models develop — or it’ll try to develop once it’s past 60W. That’ll depend on whether it goes into the Caribbean, stays north of the GAs, or runs over The Shredder. The GFS has shown all three scenarios at least once over the last few days.

[cycloneye]

This wave axis is now at 22W per 18z surface analysis.

[Blown Away]

This area looks angry the Atlantic has been so quiet and ready to become a CV monster!

[LarryWx]

I just posted this in the other E Atlantic AEW thread:

"Tony,
It is a bit confusing but what you laid out is consistent with what I've been seeing. From what the models have been showing for many days, this energy has been shown to be slowing in the E Atlantic while energy just behind it (now just offshore..the other thread) catches up to this one and it all combines into one. And then this combined energy is what has gone on to result in most of the modeled strong TCs in the W Atlantic near the end of August with some then threatening the US near the end of Aug/start of Sept.

Thanks to Tidbits, anyone can look back at runs as far back as a week and they'll see this is what those GFS runs have been doing as opposed to it just developing them from one simple AEW."

So, those 5-6 GFS runs going back to the 0Z 8/15 run with a H in the W Atlantic during the last few days of Aug to near 9/1 were all from the same combination of energy including this energy just offshore imho.

Upon further analysis of the old runs at Tidbits, I don't think the wave now at 40W ever had anything to do with those modeled hurricanes as those appear to me to have been generated from two packets of energy that combined east of that wave.

[cycloneye]

This area looks angry the Atlantic has been so quiet and ready to become a CV monster!

If you are talking about the wave GFS and Euro develop, this is not it. Is over Mali.

[Blown Away]

This area looks angry the Atlantic has been so quiet and ready to become a CV monster!

If you are talking about the wave GFS and Euro develop, this is not it. Is over Mali.

I’m still holding out that this wave will end up developing down the road.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS has the combined energy as of hour 138 at about the most organized at the sfc as any recent GFS run as it moves WSW.

At hour 150 it is now moving W and is the most organized it has been at this point in time in 3 days worth of GFS runs

[Hurricaneman]

Until this either poofs or gets picked up this can’t be discounted further down the road especially after 55w