2022 Tropical Waves

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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#221 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:23 am

Waves 39-40 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/21/22.

A tropical wave has an axis along 57/58W, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 12N between 51W and 60W. Recent ASCAT data show strong
winds from 12N-15N between 55W-58W. Seas with this system are
likely as high as 8 to 9 ft currently. The system continues to
show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical
depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward
Islands today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later
this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern Venezuela,
northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later this week.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 65W/66W, from 18N
southward to southern Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated
showers are within 60 nm either side of the wave axis south of
13N.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#222 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:27 am

Waves 40-41 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/22/22.

A tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean with axis near 64W S of 17N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 15N
between 59W and 69W. The disturbance is forecast to move west-
northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day
or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are likely to affect the Windward Islands this morning. These
impacts are likely to spread to northern Venezuela, northeastern
Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next couple of days.
There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical
Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave coming off the west coast of Africa extends from
05N to 20N with axis near 16W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 16N between 14W and 20W. The
tropical wave is forecast to move over the far eastern Atlantic
waters later today. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves
slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours
is medium.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#223 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:28 am

Wave 41 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/23/22.

Eastern Atlantic Low Pressure: A 1005 mb low pressure center near
17N20W, associated with a tropical wave along 20W is moving WNW at
5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
noted with this low from 13N to 20N between 17W and 22W. This
convection has become better organized early this morning, despite
the overall circulation of the low being quite broad.
Environmental conditions are generally favorable for development
over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend as the low turns more NW to NNW at 5 to 10
kt, parallel to the coast of Africa and E of the Cabo Verde
Islands. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#224 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:41 am

There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis on 9/24/22.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#225 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:48 am

12:05 UTC discussion on 9/25/22:

There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#226 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:47 am

Wave #41 at 12:05 UTC on 9/27/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave emerged off the African coast
overnight and is now located along 19W, from 20N southward, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Dry Saharan air encompasses this wave at the
low-levels, preclude any significant convection at this time.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#227 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:46 pm

Wave #41 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 9/28/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis extends from 21N24W through
the Cabo Verde Islands to 09N25W, moving W at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side
of the wave axis from 11N to 16N.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#228 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:22 am

Wave #41 at 12:05 UTC on 9/29/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis extends along 29W from 08N
to 20N, moving W at 10 kt. A cluster of moderate convection has
developed from 11N to 15N between 28W and 30W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#229 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:18 pm

Wave #42 has been introduced at 00z surface analysis. This is the one NHC is highlighting in TWO.

Image

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 17W, from 02N to
17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 15N, between the coast of Africa and 20W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#230 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:40 am

Waves 41-42 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 9/30/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 19W, from 02N to
17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 11N, between the coast of Africa and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 35W, from 07N to
20N, moving W at 10 kt. There is no significant convection
associated with this wave.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#231 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:16 am

Waves 41-42 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/1/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W, from 02N to
18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 03N to 12N, between 17W and 27W. This wave has a low chance
of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance
over the next 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W, from 04N to
19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 04N to 13N, between 38W and 46W. Latest scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh winds across the wave axis.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#232 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:03 am

Waves 41-42 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/2/22

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 30W, from 03N to
16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted S of 11N
between 25W-33W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for some gradual development during the next several
days. Therefore, a tropical depression is likely to form during
the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
westward, then turns northwestward or northward toward the end of
the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This wave has a low
chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high
chance through the next 5 days. For the latest information,
please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W, from 02N to
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 14N, between 42W-52W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#233 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:37 am

Waves 41-42 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/3/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave embedded within an elongated
area of low pressure has its axis near 32W from 03N to 15N. It is
moving westward at about 5 kt. Disorganized scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 05N to 14N between 28W-35W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
around the middle part of this week. Further development will
become less likely by the end of the week due to increasing upper-
level winds. The system is forecast to move westward, then turn
northwestward or northward by the end of the week over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.



A broad mid-Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from 04N
to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from
08N to 11N and from 14n to 17N. Similar convection is east of the
wave from 11N to 14N between the wave and 45W. Further development
of the wave is possible, however, and a tropical depression could
form during the next few days while it moves generally westward
at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern
Caribbean Sea by midweek. This system has a low chance of tropical
cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a medium
chance through 5 days. For the latest formation chances on this
tropical wave, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#234 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:43 am

Waves 41-42 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/4/22.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends southward from west
of the Cabo Verde Islands along an axis that is analyzed from
18N29W through a 1008 mb low near 13N29W and to 05N28W. This
system is moving northwestward near 10 kt. Satellite imagery
shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 13N to 17N
between 25W-30W. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that
fresh to strong winds were mainly within 240 nm of the low in
the SE semicircle. Seas with these winds are most in the 8-10 ft
range. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a day or two. There is a high chance for development over the
next 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.



A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles,
with its axis along 54W from 05N to 17N. Low pressure of 1009 mb
is along the wave near 11N. This system is moving generally
westward at about 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery shows an increasing
area of concentrated numerous moderate to strong convection
within 60 nm west of the wave and low from 09N to 13N. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave and low from
10N to 13N. Similar activity is within 30 nm of a line from 14N51W
to 15N55W. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days. It is expected to reach the Windward
Islands and eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek, and the western
Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity may cause showery and gusty conditions. This
system has a low chance of development over the next 5 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#235 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:18 am

Wave 41 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/5/22.

Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure...
A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands, with axis
along 60W and south of 17N to near the Guyana- Suriname border.
Low pressure of 1007 mb is along the wave axis near 12N60W. This
system is moving westward around 13 kt. Fresh to strong east to
southeast winds along with seas of 8-10 ft are evident up to 270
nm north and east of the low center, including waters near
Barbados. An overnight ASCAT pass captured these winds. Satellite
imagery shows numerous moderate to scattered strong convection in
clusters from the Venezuela- Guyana coast to 13N between 57W and
60W. Some of the surface observations from the Windward Islands
indicated southeast winds gusting to gale force. For the chances
of further development on this system, it is medium for the next
48 hours and high for the next 5 days. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to
gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands,
northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the
next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to
those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#236 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 7:47 am

Wave 41 at 12:05 UTC on 10/6/22.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has its axis along
65W south of the Virgin Islands to inland Venezuela. A rather
broad 1006 mb low is to the west-northwest of Margarita Island
near 11N65W. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Overnight
ASCAT data and wave model output reveal fresh to strong northeast
to east and southeast winds, with 8 to 10 ft seas associated with
this system at the southeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Satellite imagery shows an impressive very large cluster of
numerous strong convection south of 12N to inland Venezuela and
from 65W-67W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
with strong gusty winds are elsewhere south of 14N between
61W-75W, including the ABC and Windward Islands, northern
Venezuela and Margarita Island. As this system tracks westward
over the next couple of days, these weather conditions will spread
over northern Colombia. This system has a high chance of
development for the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in the next couple of days by the time the
system enters the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized
flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over
portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South
America, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests
in those locations, in addition to those in Central America,
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
http://www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#237 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:55 am

Wave 43 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/8/22.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 38W, south of 10N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N
to 03N between 37W and 39W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#238 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2022 5:11 pm

Waves 43-44 at 18:05 UTC discussion on 10/9/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is between Africa and the tropical
wave, and within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave from the
ITCZ to 14N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 11N between the tropical
wave and 51W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#239 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:19 am

Waves 43-44 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/10/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south
of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is observed.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of
18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 47W and 51W.
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Re: 2022 Tropical Waves

#240 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:09 am

Waves 43-44-45 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 10/11/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave position was adjusted to near
28W from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 17N southward, and
moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
across the islands from 12N to 16N between 22W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave was introduced into the tropics
from the mid latitudes near 39W, south of 18N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 10N
between 35W and 40W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands
near 56W/57W from 16N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active over the
Leeward Islands.
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