2022 Cyclones Retirement

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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#61 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:49 pm

Fiona and Ian deserve the :Can:

100% sure that those two names will never return after this season
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#62 Postby typhoonty » Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:As far as likelihood of retirement in my opinion:

Ian - 100%
Fiona - 95% (either the US or Canada could do it)

All others - <2% (nothing else has really affected land at all)


Fiona is a lock for being retired. Canada is EXTREMELY liberal in asking for retirement. Juan and Igor killed a combined 8 people directly in Canada and both were asked to be retired. Fiona is far more costly and has killed 3. It's gone.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#63 Postby ThunderForce » Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:11 pm

I think it's pretty safe to say that both Fiona and Ian will be retired after this season. No ifs, ands or buts about it.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#64 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:18 pm

typhoonty wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:As far as likelihood of retirement in my opinion:

Ian - 100%
Fiona - 95% (either the US or Canada could do it)

All others - <2% (nothing else has really affected land at all)


Fiona is a lock for being retired. Canada is EXTREMELY liberal in asking for retirement. Juan and Igor killed a combined 8 people directly in Canada and both were asked to be retired. Fiona is far more costly and has killed 3. It's gone.


This sort of got me wondering, but I wonder why Canada is very liberal in storm retirement while Mexico is like the very opposite of that
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#65 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:28 pm

The wikipedia Hermine page says it killed 33 people!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Hermine_(2022)

More than 100 people were rescued on September 24 and 25 while many others may have gone missing. One boat carrying 34 people was lost in the storm; only one person survived and was rescued after drifting at sea for nine days.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#66 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:45 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:The wikipedia Hermine page says it killed 33 people!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Hermine_(2022)
More than 100 people were rescued on September 24 and 25 while many others may have gone missing. One boat carrying 34 people was lost in the storm; only one person survived and was rescued after drifting at sea for nine days.


With this exceptional havoc over Canary Islands, I'm giving Hermine a 40-50% chance of being retired.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#67 Postby NorthieStangl » Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:33 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:The wikipedia Hermine page says it killed 33 people!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Hermine_(2022)
More than 100 people were rescued on September 24 and 25 while many others may have gone missing. One boat carrying 34 people was lost in the storm; only one person survived and was rescued after drifting at sea for nine days.


With this exceptional havoc over Canary Islands, I'm giving Hermine a 40-50% chance of being retired.


Spain isn't on the hurricane committee though.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#68 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:57 am

NorthieStangl wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:The wikipedia Hermine page says it killed 33 people!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Hermine_(2022)
More than 100 people were rescued on September 24 and 25 while many others may have gone missing. One boat carrying 34 people was lost in the storm; only one person survived and was rescued after drifting at sea for nine days.


With this exceptional havoc over Canary Islands, I'm giving Hermine a 40-50% chance of being retired.


Spain isn't on the hurricane committee though.


As I have said many times before, IF the official weather bureau in Spain were to ask for the name to be retired, if the committee then didn't do it they would be seen as extremely rude and uncaring, whether or not there are any members from Spain on the committee. So this all depends on how much publicity these events got within Spain, and whether or not the name of the hurricane figured prominently in news reports and official discussions about the storm within Spain.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#69 Postby Nuno » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:38 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
typhoonty wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:As far as likelihood of retirement in my opinion:

Ian - 100%
Fiona - 95% (either the US or Canada could do it)

All others - <2% (nothing else has really affected land at all)


Fiona is a lock for being retired. Canada is EXTREMELY liberal in asking for retirement. Juan and Igor killed a combined 8 people directly in Canada and both were asked to be retired. Fiona is far more costly and has killed 3. It's gone.


This sort of got me wondering, but I wonder why Canada is very liberal in storm retirement while Mexico is like the very opposite of that


I would imagine frequency? Mexico gets hit every season usually by several storms on both sides of the coast. It has to be really bad for them. Canada doesn't really get many storms and thus its a bigger deal, but it is still absolutely insane that they requested Igor's retirement. Now after Fiona with more extensive widespread damage and unusually low barometric pressure, hopefully IMO that bar is raised. Fiona is worthy of retirement imo all around, but we can't just retire every storm that makes landfall and causes $200-500mil in damage in this day and age. I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#70 Postby Teban54 » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:43 pm

Nuno wrote:I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.

I think the US is already doing that by not requesting retirement of Imelda, Sally, Delta and Zeta. (And Isaias though it wasn't in the Gulf.)
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#71 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:27 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Nuno wrote:I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.

I think the US is already doing that by not requesting retirement of Imelda, Sally, Delta and Zeta. (And Isaias though it wasn't in the Gulf.)

I think Zeta is the only CONUS major landfalling storm to not get officially retired, but since the entire Greek alphabet is scrapped and the Atlantic doesn’t have a Z spot, it technically is a retired storm.

I don’t get why Isaias wasn’t retired though. It’s not like there were multiple other billion-dollar East Coast landfalls in 2020 like there were in the Gulf.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#72 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:39 pm

aspen wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Nuno wrote:I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.

I think the US is already doing that by not requesting retirement of Imelda, Sally, Delta and Zeta. (And Isaias though it wasn't in the Gulf.)

I think Zeta is the only CONUS major landfalling storm to not get officially retired, but since the entire Greek alphabet is scrapped and the Atlantic doesn’t have a Z spot, it technically is a retired storm.

I don’t get why Isaias wasn’t retired though. It’s not like there were multiple other billion-dollar East Coast landfalls in 2020 like there were in the Gulf.


Isaias became overshadowed by the Caribbean monsters.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#73 Postby Nuno » Fri Oct 07, 2022 6:17 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Nuno wrote:I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.

I think the US is already doing that by not requesting retirement of Imelda, Sally, Delta and Zeta. (And Isaias though it wasn't in the Gulf.)


Perhaps we're finally realizing the current system of names is going to run out at this rate and now are more measured in determining what should be retired? :wink:

aspen wrote:I don’t get why Isaias wasn’t retired though. It’s not like there were multiple other billion-dollar East Coast landfalls in 2020 like there were in the Gulf.


Isaias caused only $5 billion in damage and didn't cause many fatalities. I've said this every retirement thread but you cannot just retire every storm now that reaches $5b in damages or honestly, $10b in damages as that is the norm now. Inflation and additional coastal urbanization is going to pump up figures going forward. Retirement is for notorious storms that caused such unforgettable damage. People far away from the tropics may be familiar with the major names like Hugo, Andrew, Katrina, Sandy, Ian etc but does anyone who isn't a wx nerd really remember Isaias unless those affected by it? Or Imelda? There is a distinct difference between an Igor and an Ida I suppose, and retiring every name cheapens the whole concept of retirement to begin with.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 08, 2022 12:15 am

Nuno wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
typhoonty wrote:
Fiona is a lock for being retired. Canada is EXTREMELY liberal in asking for retirement. Juan and Igor killed a combined 8 people directly in Canada and both were asked to be retired. Fiona is far more costly and has killed 3. It's gone.


This sort of got me wondering, but I wonder why Canada is very liberal in storm retirement while Mexico is like the very opposite of that


I would imagine frequency? Mexico gets hit every season usually by several storms on both sides of the coast. It has to be really bad for them. Canada doesn't really get many storms and thus its a bigger deal, but it is still absolutely insane that they requested Igor's retirement. Now after Fiona with more extensive widespread damage and unusually low barometric pressure, hopefully IMO that bar is raised. Fiona is worthy of retirement imo all around, but we can't just retire every storm that makes landfall and causes $200-500mil in damage in this day and age. I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.


It's really a sense of whether or not a storm is memorable for a region. In the case of Canada, those were very memorable storms. By contrast, other storms that hit there - like Larry last year, or Earl in 2010 - were not exactly memorable even though they were of only slightly lower intensity.

Fiona likely blew the damage numbers out of the water - I'm guessing it was Canada's first billion-dollar hurricane. It was already likely retired though from what it did in Puerto Rico.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#75 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:50 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Nuno wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
This sort of got me wondering, but I wonder why Canada is very liberal in storm retirement while Mexico is like the very opposite of that


I would imagine frequency? Mexico gets hit every season usually by several storms on both sides of the coast. It has to be really bad for them. Canada doesn't really get many storms and thus its a bigger deal, but it is still absolutely insane that they requested Igor's retirement. Now after Fiona with more extensive widespread damage and unusually low barometric pressure, hopefully IMO that bar is raised. Fiona is worthy of retirement imo all around, but we can't just retire every storm that makes landfall and causes $200-500mil in damage in this day and age. I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.


It's really a sense of whether or not a storm is memorable for a region. In the case of Canada, those were very memorable storms. By contrast, other storms that hit there - like Larry last year, or Earl in 2010 - were not exactly memorable even though they were of only slightly lower intensity.

Fiona likely blew the damage numbers out of the water - I'm guessing it was Canada's first billion-dollar hurricane. It was already likely retired though from what it did in Puerto Rico.


Interesting to think that hypothetically, had Karl 2010 hit Canada instead and killed 22 and caused $3.9 billion in damage, it would have gotten retired instantly. Had Karl 2010 hit the US and inflicted the same amount of damage, it would have likely not been retired.

I think of all the names that are hotly debated regarding whether they should have been retired or not, keeping Gordon after 1994 is probably the most mind-boggling decision. I still have no idea how a storm that killed +1,100 people did not get axed from the list, let alone during an otherwise very quiet hurricane season.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#76 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:31 am

aspen wrote:I think Zeta is the only CONUS major landfalling storm to not get officially retired, but since the entire Greek alphabet is scrapped and the Atlantic doesn’t have a Z spot, it technically is a retired storm.

I don’t get why Isaias wasn’t retired though. It’s not like there were multiple other billion-dollar East Coast landfalls in 2020 like there were in the Gulf.

There is another major CONUS landfall to evade retirement - Bret of 1999 - owing to its compact structure and low population density in the landfall area.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#77 Postby NorthieStangl » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:08 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Nuno wrote:I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.

I think the US is already doing that by not requesting retirement of Imelda, Sally, Delta and Zeta. (And Isaias though it wasn't in the Gulf.)


I don't know if anyone noticed this, but the last time the United States retired a storm that didn't cause at least $10 billion in damage was Gustav... way back in spring of 2009. That would explain why Sally didn't get retired with $7.3 billion in damage, although I would argue it should had been.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#78 Postby NorthieStangl » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:16 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Nuno wrote:
I would imagine frequency? Mexico gets hit every season usually by several storms on both sides of the coast. It has to be really bad for them. Canada doesn't really get many storms and thus its a bigger deal, but it is still absolutely insane that they requested Igor's retirement. Now after Fiona with more extensive widespread damage and unusually low barometric pressure, hopefully IMO that bar is raised. Fiona is worthy of retirement imo all around, but we can't just retire every storm that makes landfall and causes $200-500mil in damage in this day and age. I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.


It's really a sense of whether or not a storm is memorable for a region. In the case of Canada, those were very memorable storms. By contrast, other storms that hit there - like Larry last year, or Earl in 2010 - were not exactly memorable even though they were of only slightly lower intensity.

Fiona likely blew the damage numbers out of the water - I'm guessing it was Canada's first billion-dollar hurricane. It was already likely retired though from what it did in Puerto Rico.


Interesting to think that hypothetically, had Karl 2010 hit Canada instead and killed 22 and caused $3.9 billion in damage, it would have gotten retired instantly. Had Karl 2010 hit the US and inflicted the same amount of damage, it would have likely not been retired.


That's because Canada has only about a tenth of the population of the US. Therefore, $3.9 billion in the USA would be equivalent to approximately $39 billion in Canada. That's why Juan was retired despite only $200 million, and Igor with only $100 million. And Canada isn't "liberal" when it comes to retiring hurricane names. They literally had done it only TWICE so far. That's nothing, especially compared to Australia!
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#79 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:08 pm

NorthieStangl wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
It's really a sense of whether or not a storm is memorable for a region. In the case of Canada, those were very memorable storms. By contrast, other storms that hit there - like Larry last year, or Earl in 2010 - were not exactly memorable even though they were of only slightly lower intensity.

Fiona likely blew the damage numbers out of the water - I'm guessing it was Canada's first billion-dollar hurricane. It was already likely retired though from what it did in Puerto Rico.


Interesting to think that hypothetically, had Karl 2010 hit Canada instead and killed 22 and caused $3.9 billion in damage, it would have gotten retired instantly. Had Karl 2010 hit the US and inflicted the same amount of damage, it would have likely not been retired.


That's because Canada has only about a tenth of the population of the US. Therefore, $3.9 billion in the USA would be equivalent to approximately $39 billion in Canada. That's why Juan was retired despite only $200 million, and Igor with only $100 million. And Canada isn't "liberal" when it comes to retiring hurricane names. They literally had done it only TWICE so far. That's nothing, especially compared to Australia!


Not to mention that the population of Atlantic Canada, where the landfalls happen, is only about 2.6 million. While an inland impact can affect much more population, that would probably be after a case where the US had already had a retirement case (either through a trough-spin like Hazel, or a stall out near the border but that scenario would require two blocking ridges around 45N latitude, a very unlikely setup).
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#80 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:39 am

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