Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=18/8/4 / NOAA= 14-20 named storms

#301 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:52 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Strikes me as kind of odd that the numbers are still weighted toward quantity over quality. June and July are the most common periods for slop, and with those out of the way, ASO seem more likely to contain quality storms by comparison. With the first half of august looking just as empty as the last two months, I’m inclined to lean toward the lower end of the NS count if the H/MH ranges are to be maintained.


I am thinking just the opposite. Forecast is for 15/8/4, which is weighted more heavily toward hurricanes, as historical average is twice the number of named storms vs. hurricanes.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=18/8/4 / NOAA=14-20 named storms

#302 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:58 pm

WeatherTiger August forecast has been added to the first post list.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=18/8/4 / NOAA= 14-20 named storms

#303 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Strikes me as kind of odd that the numbers are still weighted toward quantity over quality. June and July are the most common periods for slop, and with those out of the way, ASO seem more likely to contain quality storms by comparison. With the first half of august looking just as empty as the last two months, I’m inclined to lean toward the lower end of the NS count if the H/MH ranges are to be maintained.


I am thinking just the opposite. Forecast is for 15/8/4, which is weighted more heavily toward hurricanes, as historical average is twice the number of named storms vs. hurricanes.

I might be misunderstanding, but 15/8/4 sounds like it aligns with what I was thinking. 15 is on the lower side of the 14-20 named storms for NOAA, while 8 hurricanes and 4 majors is in the middle of their respective ranges
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR 8/9/22 update= 17/8/3

#304 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:55 am

Tropical Storm Risk in their August forecast, go down on the numbers with 17/8/3. On July they had 18/9/4. Read the reasons in the PDF.

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https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2022.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#305 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:50 am

TWC has reduced their numbers to 17/7/3. I can’t get the link to the article because the app immediately opens up for me.
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Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#306 Postby skyline385 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:45 am

aspen wrote:TWC has reduced their numbers to 17/7/3. I can’t get the link to the article because the app immediately opens up for me.

Their website still shows the 8/9 forecast at 17/8/3, weird that it’s not updated


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU Two Week Forecast from 18-31=Normal activity

#307 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:55 am

CSU two week forecast from August 18-31 has near normal activity.

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https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0818.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU Two Week Forecast from 18-31=Normal activity

#308 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:32 am

cycloneye wrote:CSU two week forecast from August 18-31 has near normal activity.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0818.pdf


Low shear is great for development but Dry air is everywhere.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU Two Week Forecast from 18-31=Near normal activity

#309 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:04 pm

AccuWeather has updated their forecast to 16 NS, 6-8 H, 3-5 MH, and 4-6 direct US impacts. Strange how their named storm count is the only one that doesn’t have a range of values.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1234187
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Re: RE: Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU Two Week Forecast from 18-31=Near normal acti

#310 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:35 pm

aspen wrote:AccuWeather has updated their forecast to 16 NS, 6-8 H, 3-5 MH, and 4-6 direct US impacts. Strange how their named storm count is the only one that doesn’t have a range of values.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1234187
They took the middle of each range and added it up. The range is 13-19 NS.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#311 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:28 pm

Which agencies be releasing / updating their seasonal forecasts Sept 1st?

I know CSU will be releasing another 2 - week update tomorrow, but is there a reason why they release seasonal updates June, July, & August, (but not Sept, or Oct)?

I would be very interested what their outlook is for the next 2 months.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#312 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 30, 2022 1:18 pm

Updating our forecast to 14/6/3. I think maybe 5-6 named storms in September and 3-5 in Oct/Nov. Up to 11 additional storms. Could be fewer. It would take a heck of an active September to reach 16-17 named storms. Could have a couple named storms over the next week. One would be 91L, the other a non-recognized (by the NHC) system west of the Azores.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#313 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:Updating our forecast to 14/6/3. I think maybe 5-6 named storms in September and 3-5 in Oct/Nov. Up to 11 additional storms. Could be fewer. It would take a heck of an active September to reach 16-17 named storms. Could have a couple named storms over the next week. One would be 91L, the other a non-recognized (by the NHC) system west of the Azores.

They just added it to the 8pm TWO. I think it has a shot of stealing the name Danielle before 91L gets its act together.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#314 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2022 10:43 am

CSU two week forecast has near normal with 70%.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1565363054753169408


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#315 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:19 pm

Sept 15th CSU 2 week forecast (includes ACE from Fiona):


Image

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#316 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:34 pm

Spacecoast wrote:Sept 15th CSU 2 week forecast (includes ACE from Fiona):


https://i.ibb.co/80tD62j/cde.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/ckMffkR/cdf.jpg

Fiona itself is unlikely to generate 26 ACE, so it seems that CSU is not buying the idea of a completely dead MDR season post-Fiona like some members are suggesting.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#317 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:38 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#318 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:26 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Verification of 2022 CSU forecast posted

#319 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 28, 2022 11:08 am

The verification of the 2022 forecast by CSU is up and posted at first post list.

Here is Phil's tweet.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1597259521910394880


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Verification of 2022 CSU forecast posted

#320 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Nov 28, 2022 1:31 pm

There's also this read that is closely linked with Klotzbach's findings.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/a-most-abnormal-atlantic-hurricane-season-officially-ends-this-week/

I think it's interesting and could be extremely useful that Klotzbach is hinting at an interest to consider wave-breaking and mid-level dry air in future seasonal forecasts. Also interesting to note that Jhordanne Jones is a scientist who has a degree in specifically studying wave-breaking :lol: ; seems like her dry air prediction indicators may need to be scrutinized more in future years
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