Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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tolakram
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Verification of 2022 CSU forecast posted

#321 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 28, 2022 1:50 pm

Well,

at least wave breaking seems legit. I bet we never hear of it again unless it's some new recurring pattern. Can it predicted before it happens? If not then it's all Monday morning quarterbacking.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Verification of 2022 CSU forecast posted

#322 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:29 pm

Here is the mention of the wavebreaking factor.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#323 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:08 pm

Looks like the indicator that a 3rd year La Nina typically means a slower Atlantic hurricane season compared to the first two is a good indicator.

Doesn't take away how deadly La Nina's are for the Atlantic regardless of activity rate
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#324 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:01 am

NHC did very good with the forecasts of track and intensity except for Fiona.

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1597934162157051905


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#325 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:56 am

A video recap of Hurricane Season 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cXE4lnaylY
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#326 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 01, 2022 7:21 am

No more December forecasts from CSU.

We have suspended our December forecasts given the lack of skill at seasonal predictions at that long-range lead
time.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#327 Postby Blown Away » Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:No more December forecasts from CSU.

We have suspended our December forecasts given the lack of skill at seasonal predictions at that long-range lead
time.


Luis, that stinks! It was nice to get the CSU early thoughts on the next season because typically they would provide accurate clues that us Cane fanatics could chat about. :(
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#328 Postby tolakram » Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:22 pm

Unfortunately there's no advantage for them making even the most preliminary forecast. It just becomes something that can be pointed at and called wrong. We can't have nice things.

In the spirit of skill I hope GFS runs past 5 days can be cancelled as well. :lol:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#329 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Dec 01, 2022 7:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:No more December forecasts from CSU.

We have suspended our December forecasts given the lack of skill at seasonal predictions at that long-range lead
time.



I thought they stopped December forecasts years ago.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#330 Postby Blown Away » Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:12 pm

Many expert forecasts called for increased chance of FL Peninsula landfalls, that was very accurate.
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