ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12741 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:15 am

Ocean component of ENSO is again trying to flip to +ENSO.
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But the atmosphere continues to not cooperate so... Currently, more of the same of what we've seen in the last 3 years or so.

Lot's of time for things to change but I would argue this time last year, things looked more prime for +ENSO compared to the current setup.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12742 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:55 am

I can't find a good spot to post this, y'all can move it to another location if need be.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1600317608108392448


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12743 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:44 am

La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral. El Niño chances increase to 49% for JAS.


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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC December update=Febuary thru April Neutral / 49% of El Niño for JAS

#12744 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:02 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC December update=Febuary thru April Neutral / 49% of El Niño for JAS

#12745 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:26 am

I have heard that the La Nina has rapidly weakened in November and could be a goner before 2022 comes to an end.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC December update=Febuary thru April Neutral / 49% of El Niño for JAS

#12746 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Dec 09, 2022 3:03 pm

El Niño seems like a strong possibility. Hopefully it ends the cat4 strikes on the US.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC December update=Febuary thru April Neutral / 49% of El Niño for JAS

#12747 Postby Astromanía » Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:50 pm

Actually I'm very worried about and active Epac next year, we saw strong landfalls in niña years this past two seasons, I don't want to think we could expect if conditions are actually good in that basin for Mexico
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12748 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 10, 2022 12:20 am

Nothing to indicate that La Nina has weakened in the atmosphere. Low level bias remains La Nina esque with strong trades.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12749 Postby zzzh » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:39 am

Image
Weak dateline wwb incoming.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12750 Postby zzzh » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:48 am

Image
MJO will move into Phase 4/5 in ~10 days. Strong rising branch will establish over Maritime continent, causing a strong EWB in equatorial Pacific. La Nina won't go away...
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12751 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 10, 2022 12:52 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/JR9yfJv.gif
Weak dateline wwb incoming.

Won't do much IMO, very weak anomalies. But subsurface warm anomalies should continue to push eastward. Look at that IO WWB though. Clearly La Nina is still in control for now.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12752 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Dec 10, 2022 3:22 pm

MJO needs to stop lingering in the IO if we are going to get an El Nino next year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12753 Postby Blown Away » Sat Dec 10, 2022 10:57 pm

Has there been 3 La Nina’s followed by an El Niño?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12754 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:30 am

Blown Away wrote:Has there been 3 La Nina’s followed by an El Niño?


Yes; 1973-1975 were Ninas, followed by 1976, which was an El Nino. Same goes for 1954-1956, when 1957 was an El Nino.

Now with that being said, 1998-2000 were El Ninos, but 2001 was a neutral year, and it ended up being on level with 2000's activity (interestingly with more major hurricanes and hurricanes).

Personally, I'm very curious to see if we end up with an El Nino or a neutral for next year (imho I think it's pretty safe to say that La Nina is not going to happen). Because if for whatever reason we fall short of El Nino thresholds, we could conceivably see at least an average Atlantic season yet again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12755 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Dec 11, 2022 10:59 am

In terms of odds, anytime there's a double dip Nina, an El Nino becomes more likely. But they can fail as we seen in 2012 and 2022 and you end up with either neutral or another La Nina.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12756 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:30 pm

90 days CFS showing strong dual trade bursts, one in January and one in February. I wouldn't give any of these subsurface anomalies any weight until we get a true WWB.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12757 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:31 pm

Entering the final 2 weeks of the year and still no +PDO or +PMM.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12758 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 19, 2022 9:29 am

CPC weekly update of 12/19/22 has Niño 3.4 warming a little bit up to -0.9C.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12759 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Dec 23, 2022 8:15 am

Westerly anomalies over the MC. I think for the first time this winter. Potentially see warmer subsurface anomalies that could eventually move east. Very strong trade burst over the dateline.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12760 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Dec 25, 2022 5:34 pm

Uhh, OK then

I'm sure some kind of Darwin low had to have skewed this, but nonetheless I've never seen daily readings in excess of +50. 30-day went from +4 to +17 in like three weeks..

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