ENSO Updates

[Kingarabian]

Ocean component of ENSO is again trying to flip to +ENSO.



But the atmosphere continues to not cooperate so... Currently, more of the same of what we've seen in the last 3 years or so.

Lot's of time for things to change but I would argue this time last year, things looked more prime for +ENSO compared to the current setup.

[Iceresistance]

I can't find a good spot to post this, y'all can move it to another location if need be.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1600317608108392448

[cycloneye]

La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral. El Niño chances increase to 49% for JAS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table

[cycloneye]

[Iceresistance]

I have heard that the La Nina has rapidly weakened in November and could be a goner before 2022 comes to an end.

[InfernoFlameCat]

El Niño seems like a strong possibility. Hopefully it ends the cat4 strikes on the US.

[Astromanía]

Actually I'm very worried about and active Epac next year, we saw strong landfalls in niña years this past two seasons, I don't want to think we could expect if conditions are actually good in that basin for Mexico

[Kingarabian]

Nothing to indicate that La Nina has weakened in the atmosphere. Low level bias remains La Nina esque with strong trades.

[zzzh]

Weak dateline wwb incoming.

[zzzh]

MJO will move into Phase 4/5 in ~10 days. Strong rising branch will establish over Maritime continent, causing a strong EWB in equatorial Pacific. La Nina won't go away...

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/JR9yfJv.gif
Weak dateline wwb incoming.

Won't do much IMO, very weak anomalies. But subsurface warm anomalies should continue to push eastward. Look at that IO WWB though. Clearly La Nina is still in control for now.

[Yellow Evan]

MJO needs to stop lingering in the IO if we are going to get an El Nino next year.

[Blown Away]

Has there been 3 La Nina’s followed by an El Niño?

[Category5Kaiju]

Has there been 3 La Nina’s followed by an El Niño?

Yes; 1973-1975 were Ninas, followed by 1976, which was an El Nino. Same goes for 1954-1956, when 1957 was an El Nino.

Now with that being said, 1998-2000 were El Ninos, but 2001 was a neutral year, and it ended up being on level with 2000's activity (interestingly with more major hurricanes and hurricanes).

Personally, I'm very curious to see if we end up with an El Nino or a neutral for next year (imho I think it's pretty safe to say that La Nina is not going to happen). Because if for whatever reason we fall short of El Nino thresholds, we could conceivably see at least an average Atlantic season yet again.

[Kingarabian]

In terms of odds, anytime there's a double dip Nina, an El Nino becomes more likely. But they can fail as we seen in 2012 and 2022 and you end up with either neutral or another La Nina.

[Kingarabian]

90 days CFS showing strong dual trade bursts, one in January and one in February. I wouldn't give any of these subsurface anomalies any weight until we get a true WWB.

[Kingarabian]

Entering the final 2 weeks of the year and still no +PDO or +PMM.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 12/19/22 has Niño 3.4 warming a little bit up to -0.9C.





https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Westerly anomalies over the MC. I think for the first time this winter. Potentially see warmer subsurface anomalies that could eventually move east. Very strong trade burst over the dateline.

[weeniepatrol]

Uhh, OK then

I'm sure some kind of Darwin low had to have skewed this, but nonetheless I've never seen daily readings in excess of +50. 30-day went from +4 to +17 in like three weeks..