Ntxw wrote:The overall idea so far is El Nino is not coming in as fast as we would think given the stretch of La Nina. But there is some precedent (1998-2001) that we may linger neutral longer. Not out of realms of possibility an El Nino might not come officially until 2024, but still early.
I agree; I think we're definitely leaving La Nina and will not see a quadruple dip. But unless we get strong, sustained WWBs throughout this month into March and April, I think the chances that we end up cool or warm neutral (I'm personally banking on warm neutral, but we'll see) greatly increase, and the chances that we end up with a bona fide El Nino greatly drop. As of now, the way I see things, the warmup is simply not that powerful enough that it will definitively drag the Pacific into El Nino territory.
Now I wonder kind of like how 2016 featured lingering El Nino effects despite being a La Nina year, if 2023 would similarly feature lingering La Nina effects even if hypothetically it turns out to be an El Nino year given how the La Nina we've had has remained in place at moderate strength for so long.
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in light of a dangerous hurricane.