ENSO Updates

[Kingarabian]

Euro is calling for an El Niño this year

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1622588425424539648?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Model skill at this time of the year (all the way until May) is not just a little lower than normal. Its down right terrible.

[JetFuel_SE]

I'm going to be honest here, I'm kind of lost on what exactly he is basing his idea that we're almost certain for an El Nino this year in that Tweet. I'm not exactly sure what "co2 fairy" and "Southern Hemisphere hotspots" mean as I've never heard of those terms before?

He's a climate change denier, they rarely make sense.

[JetFuel_SE]

Euro is calling for an El Niño this year

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1622588425424539648?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Model skill at this time of the year (all the way until May) is not just a little lower than normal. Its down right terrible.

Might as well flip a coin instead of following models at this point.

[Ntxw]

The overall idea so far is El Nino is not coming in as fast as we would think given the stretch of La Nina. But there is some precedent (1998-2001) that we may linger neutral longer. Not out of realms of possibility an El Nino might not come officially until 2024, but still early.

[Category5Kaiju]

The overall idea so far is El Nino is not coming in as fast as we would think given the stretch of La Nina. But there is some precedent (1998-2001) that we may linger neutral longer. Not out of realms of possibility an El Nino might not come officially until 2024, but still early.

I agree; I think we're definitely leaving La Nina and will not see a quadruple dip. But unless we get strong, sustained WWBs throughout this month into March and April, I think the chances that we end up cool or warm neutral (I'm personally banking on warm neutral, but we'll see) greatly increase, and the chances that we end up with a bona fide El Nino greatly drop. As of now, the way I see things, the warmup is simply not that powerful enough that it will definitively drag the Pacific into El Nino territory.

Now I wonder kind of like how 2016 featured lingering El Nino effects despite being a La Nina year, if 2023 would similarly feature lingering La Nina effects even if hypothetically it turns out to be an El Nino year given how the La Nina we've had has remained in place at moderate strength for so long.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 warming up to -0.5C.





https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[NotSparta]

Euro is calling for an El Niño this year

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1622588425424539648?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Well yeah it does whenever La Nina isn't a foregone conclusion

[NotSparta]

The overall idea so far is El Nino is not coming in as fast as we would think given the stretch of La Nina. But there is some precedent (1998-2001) that we may linger neutral longer. Not out of realms of possibility an El Nino might not come officially until 2024, but still early.

Yeah I can see us languishing in neutral this year, then an opportunity for Nino to come on strong in 2024. We'll see

[cycloneye]

Maybe a modoki La Niña is forming? This occurs when warmer SST's sit off the coast of Ecuador while cooler SST's remain more West. This may have big implications because it can have major impacts and greatly modify La Niña making it feel more of a neutral to El Niño.

[dexterlabio]

Maybe a modoki La Niña is forming? This occurs when warmer SST's sit off the coast of Ecuador while cooler SST's remain more West. This may have big implications because it can have major impacts and greatly modify La Niña making it feel more of a neutral to El Niño.

https://i.imgur.com/jbFd7RF.png

https://i.imgur.com/T2h4aF2.jpg

I've read somewhere in the forums that when an El Niño looked more center-based or Modoki, it's because the westerlies were not that strong to drive the pool of warm water all the way to the east. Hence, warm ENSO events that are Modoki are usually weak. Perhaps this one is telling that the current -ENSO is weakening and transitioning to a neutral state?

[cycloneye]

CPC Febuary update has ENSO-neutral conditions that are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[cycloneye]

Always is very interesting to read the ENSO Blog where they explain in a more detalied way all about what is going on with ENSO and what to expect.

From the blog:

But will the neutral conditions we expect for spring precede an El Niño?? Tell us what we really want to know! Currently, El Niño has odds of about 60% for next fall—and after three La Niña winters in a row, it might seem inevitable—but there are some factors that provide uncertainty. There’s our old friend, the spring predictability barrier. Forecasts made in the spring tend to have lower accuracy, at least in part because spring is a time of transition for ENSO (other possible factors are still being explored), making it harder for models to get a grip on what direction things are going.

In summary: La Niña is waning, and confidence is high that neutral conditions will be in place soon and will last through the spring and early summer. Chances for El Niño next fall are increasing, but we’ll have a better picture as we progress through and past the spring predictability barrier.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1624064812199059456

[Kingarabian]

MJO is set to move into the WPAC by the end of next week. So far the models are keeping it weak but trades should slow down near the dateline before picking up back again.

Lets see if the MJO can get stronger than forecast which models sometimes dont pick up in advance (as we saw in the past 2-4 weeks over the IO).

Regardless of what happens, the models that are forecasting El Nino for this summer all have a strong WPAC MJO in mid April. So that's the one to look for.

That being said, per climo the MJO starts to get weaker and weaker after March.

[cycloneye]

Some easterlies but for how long.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1624165674191839257




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1624165692797771795




 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1624192282210537479

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1624064812199059456

Interesting to note that the one area of the CONUS with above average precip according to that plot looks to be Central Florida.

It remains to be seen but with that kind of predicted ENSO state, Atlantic Caribbean activity may be greatly reduced, but the Eastern Seaboard of the CONUS may be at greater risk of potential cyclones if the subtropics are going to be like that.

[cycloneye]

Good thread from met Ben Noll. That dry thing in the Caribbean looks very important for the time hurricane season comes but let's see what will be the evolution of ENSO in the next few months.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1625922766758346752




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1625922771334340609




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1625922776770179072




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1625922780201119746




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1625922783443288064




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1625922787666980865




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1625922792230387712

[Iceresistance]

Nino 1+2 is now positive for the first time in likely 2-3 years.

Nino 3 is also warming up.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I was just wondering this recently given the ENSO state going from La Nina to neutral (with many models at this point calling for El Nino later this year), but why did so many models bust with the El Nino prediction in 2017? Quite interestingly, the ENSO configuration in the EPAC as of now resembles 2017 in the sense that there are the anomalously warm 1-2 region and cool 3-4 region.

[zzzh]

EPS shows continuous dateline WWB.