ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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dexterlabio
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13021 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Mar 31, 2023 11:56 pm

Latest forecasts show the MJO emerging in Phase6/7 early April, but I'm not sure if the forecasted magnitude is strong enough to turn the tide in Nino 3 and 4 regions. Also nowhere as crazy as 1997 and 2015. El Niño still on the table but a super one? Maybe not.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13022 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 01, 2023 6:59 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13023 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 01, 2023 4:18 pm

Models have this trade burst continuing into the end of April. Need that May WWB and there's signs of it on the models but it's still ambiguous. Also no WWB over the IO despite the MJO passing through. Another sign that La Nina is over and we are in neutral.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13024 Postby LarryWx » Sat Apr 01, 2023 4:55 pm

 Currently, 14 of 16 dynamic models (88%) are predicting an oncoming El Niño. How does this stack up to prior March predictions? I can see them going back to 2005 at the link below. That gives us a decent sample size of 19 years.

- This March's 88% is 3rd highest of all 19 and 2nd highest of the 14 not already El Niño. That's strong support for an upcoming El Niño.

- 2015 was at 94%, but that was already El Niño unlike now. Regardless, the models did very well in not only calling for El Niño to continue but for it to strengthen.

- The other one at 94% was 2017, which turned out to be by far the worst failure of the 19 being that it ended up La Niña.

- What % of models were predicting El Niño before other El Niños that materialized?

   - 2018: only 46% though it was still La Niña then making it challenging for the models.
   - 2014: 69%, a good job since ENSO was still cold neutral at the time 
   - 2009: 60%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time
   - 2006: 67%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time

 So, this also reiterates that 2023 being up at 88% is strong support for El Niño. The main inconsistency is the 2017 El Niño forecast fail. Thus, although I favor El Niño, 2017 keeps me humble and from betting the ranch this early.

 -----------------

Monthly ENSO model predictions back to 2005:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... o/current/
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13025 Postby WalterWhite » Sat Apr 01, 2023 5:17 pm

LarryWx wrote: Currently, 14 of 16 dynamic models (88%) are predicting an oncoming El Niño. How does this stack up to prior March predictions? I can see them going back to 2005 at the link below. That gives us a decent sample size of 19 years.

- This March's 88% is 3rd highest of all 19 and 2nd highest of the 14 not already El Niño. That's strong support for an upcoming El Niño.

- 2015 was at 94%, but that was already El Niño unlike now. Regardless, the models did very well in not only calling for El Niño to continue but for it to strengthen.

- The other one at 94% was 2017, which turned out to be by far the worst failure of the 19 being that it ended up La Niña.

- What % of models were predicting El Niño before other El Niños that materialized?

   - 2018: only 46% though it was still La Niña then making it challenging for the models.
   - 2014: 69%, a good job since ENSO was still cold neutral at the time 
   - 2009: 60%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time
   - 2006: 67%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time

 So, this also reiterates that 2023 being up at 88% is strong support for El Niño. The main inconsistency is the 2017 El Niño forecast fail. Thus, although I favor El Niño, 2017 keeps me humble and from betting the ranch this early.

 -----------------

Monthly ENSO model predictions back to 2005:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... o/current/


2017 and 2023 are very different in terms of ENSO. 2016-17 was a first-year La Nina, but 2022-23 was a third-year La Nina. Fourth-year La Ninas are very rare, but second-year La Ninas are quite common. As a practical matter, +ENSO is a near certainty next winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13026 Postby LarryWx » Sat Apr 01, 2023 5:34 pm

WalterWhite wrote:
LarryWx wrote: Currently, 14 of 16 dynamic models (88%) are predicting an oncoming El Niño. How does this stack up to prior March predictions? I can see them going back to 2005 at the link below. That gives us a decent sample size of 19 years.

- This March's 88% is 3rd highest of all 19 and 2nd highest of the 14 not already El Niño. That's strong support for an upcoming El Niño.

- 2015 was at 94%, but that was already El Niño unlike now. Regardless, the models did very well in not only calling for El Niño to continue but for it to strengthen.

- The other one at 94% was 2017, which turned out to be by far the worst failure of the 19 being that it ended up La Niña.

- What % of models were predicting El Niño before other El Niños that materialized?

   - 2018: only 46% though it was still La Niña then making it challenging for the models.
   - 2014: 69%, a good job since ENSO was still cold neutral at the time 
   - 2009: 60%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time
   - 2006: 67%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time

 So, this also reiterates that 2023 being up at 88% is strong support for El Niño. The main inconsistency is the 2017 El Niño forecast fail. Thus, although I favor El Niño, 2017 keeps me humble and from betting the ranch this early.

 -----------------

Monthly ENSO model predictions back to 2005:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... o/current/


2017 and 2023 are very different in terms of ENSO. 2016-17 was a first-year La Nina, but 2022-23 was a third-year La Nina. Fourth-year La Ninas are very rare, but second-year La Ninas are quite common. As a practical matter, +ENSO is a near certainty next winter.


Good point. I'm confident we won't get a 4th year Niña, but am not eliminating the chance for neutral, especially +neutral, even though I favor El Niño. When you say +ENSO, are you including + neutral?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13027 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 01, 2023 5:54 pm

I don't know how we go back to cool neutral with the current subsurface warmth built up from 3 years of Nina. I also see a WWB by 150E on the CFS forecast posted above that could aid in sub-surface warmth if nothing else and the trades we are seeing right now haven't reversed ENSO progression like they did in 2014. I'm reasonably confident (80% or so) in a Nino and think at least a moderate event is a 50/50 proposition.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13028 Postby Blown Away » Sat Apr 01, 2023 8:45 pm

If we end up warm neutral into J/A/S watch out NE Caribbean, Bahamas, and CONUS!!!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13029 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Apr 02, 2023 9:15 pm

GFS shows some potent WWB event in the far western Pacific over the next few days. While there should be easterlies in the far east Pacific at the same time, I heard that WWB in the WPAC should further push the subsurface warm pool eastward, triggering a downwelling KW.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13030 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Apr 02, 2023 9:18 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13031 Postby IsabelaWeather » Sun Apr 02, 2023 11:12 pm

How does rainfall look if we stay just below El Nino for the NE caribbean? I was reading that La nina tends to make a drier dry season, and an el nino makes a drier wet season (and wetter off seasons)

Since atmosphere is still akin to la nina its been very dry here in PR. An el nino year could lead to serious drought issues. Hopng a warm neutral could lead to an increase in rain around here.

https://www.weather.gov/sju/climo_enso
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13032 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:55 am

dexterlabio wrote:GFS shows some potent WWB event in the far western Pacific over the next few days. While there should be easterlies in the far east Pacific at the same time, I heard that WWB in the WPAC should further push the subsurface warm pool eastward, triggering a downwelling KW.

A WWB over 120E could bolster the warm pool but you still need a CPAC/DL WWB no matter what in order for the warm subsurface anomalies to erupt and warm the surface.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Apr 04, 2023 4:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13033 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 03, 2023 9:23 am

A new update just came out, Nino 3.4 is still at 0°C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13034 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 03, 2023 9:48 am

The SOI has been negative in past 7 days.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13035 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 03, 2023 1:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:The SOI has been negative in past 7 days.

https://i.imgur.com/mIetKng.jpg

Yeah, we are on a 7-day Daily -SOI streak too, and it's only going to get deeper negative.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13036 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 03, 2023 2:33 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:How does rainfall look if we stay just below El Nino for the NE caribbean? I was reading that La nina tends to make a drier dry season, and an el nino makes a drier wet season (and wetter off seasons)

Since atmosphere is still akin to la nina its been very dry here in PR. An el nino year could lead to serious drought issues. Hopng a warm neutral could lead to an increase in rain around here.

https://www.weather.gov/sju/climo_enso


Still drier than average if it’s a warm neutral just maybe not as much I think.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13037 Postby Ntxw » Mon Apr 03, 2023 9:22 pm

Significant WWB is going to occur west of the dateline. While traditionally you do want to see it nearer the dateline, early in season this is pushing the warm pool over the the far WPAC to gradually eastward march. Subsequent WWBs will nudge the eastern edge further if we get more events.

All about shifting that thermocline to lessen the slope from west to east.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13038 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Apr 04, 2023 8:48 am

90-day SOI is at +5
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13039 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:47 am

The latest PDO reading for March is -1.56.

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https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO
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Re: ENSO Updates: Latest PDO index update at -1.56

#13040 Postby LarryWx » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:12 pm

The Euro ensemble's April 1st forecast is now out. The trend from last month's plume is significantly more robust. Per eyeballing the Euro ensemble mean for each month:

- July increased from March 1's forecast of ~+1.0 to this forecast of ~+1.3.

- Aug increased from ~+1.1 to ~+1.5

- Sep increased from ~+1.2 to ~+1.8

- So, JAS increased from ~+1.1 last month to ~+1.5 this month.

- Oct is ~+1.9

- So, ASO is ~+1.7 on this month's.

- Keep in mind that this is based on 1981-2010 climo. But even if it were based on 1991-2020, it would be about the same per this:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ange.shtml
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