2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#101 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 23, 2023 1:30 pm

I think that the NHC will be mentioning it tomorrow. Frontal associations haven't prevent naming in the past. I'd say 70-80% chance NHC will call it Arlene Friday evening. 100% chance it will be a 35-40 kt low center.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#102 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 23, 2023 2:44 pm


Think he's right, the PV cross-section isn't exactly indicative of an (S)TC:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#103 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 23, 2023 3:03 pm

I don't think that the NHC will ignore a 30-40 kt low affecting the Carolinas right near the start of the hurricane season. Here comes Arlene.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#104 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 23, 2023 6:24 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#105 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 24, 2023 6:54 am

Another day without a mention.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#106 Postby AlanSnyder35 » Wed May 24, 2023 7:59 am

wxman57 wrote:I don't think that the NHC will ignore a 30-40 kt low affecting the Carolinas right near the start of the hurricane season. Here comes Arlene.


Don't think they will mark it. they would have done so by now
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#107 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 24, 2023 8:36 am

One thing I notice is that both the GFS & EC are predicting coastal temps in the 50s Fri/Sat as the low winds up. Not exactly a tropical airmass. Winds offshore 30-45 mph. Coastal winds probably 25-35 mph GA-SC with 3-6 inches of rain. Low inland by Saturday night. Not a pleasant beach weekend.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#108 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 24, 2023 9:21 am

AlanSnyder35 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I don't think that the NHC will ignore a 30-40 kt low affecting the Carolinas right near the start of the hurricane season. Here comes Arlene.


Don't think they will mark it. they would have done so by now


A short-lived storm like this probably won't be marked until several days out. The NHC is normally conservative (and understandably so) with these systems, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them mark it at the last minute
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#109 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 24, 2023 12:32 pm

I think NHC will mention it after this GFS run.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#110 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 24, 2023 12:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:I think NHC will mention it after this GFS run.

https://i.imgur.com/3zAPCdg.gif


Well, they did. :D
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#111 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 25, 2023 9:06 am

cycloneye wrote:I think NHC will mention it after this GFS run.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/3zAPCdg.gif[url]

Something similar in the GOM in about 10 days.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#112 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 26, 2023 8:19 am

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#113 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 26, 2023 7:58 pm

The new model HAFS will replace HMON and HWRF starting in 2025 but this 2023 season will run in parallel with those two.

https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMI ... ad-modeler

We are at the starting point of the next generation of hurricane forecast modeling.The initial operational capability is expected to replace the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) and the Hurricane in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic Model (HMON). Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 in near real time, we have already seen a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to the best hurricane model today, HWRF. This season, these two older models will also run in parallel with HAFS as we complete the full transition.

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, hurricane modeling team
NOAA ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC & METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY, HURRICANE MODELING TEAM

From left: Xuejin Zhang, Russell St. Fleur, Jun Zhang, Robert Black, Gus Alaka, Lew Gramer, Andy Hazelton, William Barry, Sundararaman (Gopal) Gopalakrishnan, Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko, Hua Leighton, William Ramstrom. Credit: NOAA
NOAA plans to implement the basin-scale HAFS in 2025 and 2026, which is expected to improve prediction of interactions between several tropical cyclones as well as the prediction of how storms behave once they make landfall. This will aid forecasters at NHC with improved products of winds, rainfall and tornado threats inland. NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is also supporting the development of the HAFS ensemble system with a focus on incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products in future.

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_AOML/status/1662168470396760065


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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#114 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2023 6:43 am

This is for Saturday June 3rd. ICON has this but the main models don't.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#115 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sun May 28, 2023 11:43 am

cycloneye wrote:The new model HAFS will replace HMON and HWRF starting in 2025 but this 2023 season will run in parallel with those two.

https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMI ... ad-modeler

We are at the starting point of the next generation of hurricane forecast modeling.The initial operational capability is expected to replace the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) and the Hurricane in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic Model (HMON). Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 in near real time, we have already seen a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to the best hurricane model today, HWRF. This season, these two older models will also run in parallel with HAFS as we complete the full transition.

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, hurricane modeling team
NOAA ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC & METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY, HURRICANE MODELING TEAM

From left: Xuejin Zhang, Russell St. Fleur, Jun Zhang, Robert Black, Gus Alaka, Lew Gramer, Andy Hazelton, William Barry, Sundararaman (Gopal) Gopalakrishnan, Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko, Hua Leighton, William Ramstrom. Credit: NOAA
NOAA plans to implement the basin-scale HAFS in 2025 and 2026, which is expected to improve prediction of interactions between several tropical cyclones as well as the prediction of how storms behave once they make landfall. This will aid forecasters at NHC with improved products of winds, rainfall and tornado threats inland. NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is also supporting the development of the HAFS ensemble system with a focus on incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products in future.

https://twitter.com/NOAA_AOML/status/1662168470396760065

Damn, didn't think it'd become operational so soon.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#116 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 28, 2023 12:04 pm

This morning's CMC also showing a 998mb low just east of the Bahamas at the same forecast time frame as well. In fact, EURO has been hinting at disturbed weather and lower pressures for the NW Caribbean and SE GOM with 1002/1003 mb over S. Florida for the same period as well. Kinda looks like an upwelling of E. Pacific moisture in tandem with an eastward migrating mid-level disturbance dropping into the GOM from Texas. Doesn't seem as if the fairly stout mean deep layer Southwesterly flow will allow much time for vertical development to occur. CMC seems to depict a deeper (998mb) further east "go with the flow" departing gift solution east of the Bahamas. Of course that model is always coming up with little "GEM's".
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#117 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2023 3:51 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#118 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 28, 2023 4:30 pm

:sick:

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#119 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun May 28, 2023 5:09 pm




A fay 2008 like track and which will hold this thing down big time as it will be mostly inland. It is possible for an upgrade inland but it is rare. We'll see how this evolves as I'd like to see it develop further west which has been hinted at from other models like ukmet, icon and some runs of the gfs, etc. I think it is probably more likely to develop 100-200 miles west and spend far more time over the gulf which could allow for it to be named.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#120 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2023 5:46 pm

GFS is on board now but it does not begin in GOM.

Image

.
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