2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1666572559259955201

[Category5Kaiju]

There's a pretty good chance we end up seeing the most anomalously warm tropical Atlantic at this point in time (like ever, in recorded history). Hard to believe this is happening in an El Nino year.

[wxman57]

Were is wxman57 i would certainly like to here his thoughts?

That NMME precipitation forecast looks very close to what I'm thinking for the season. Much of the Caribbean may be dry, but I think there's an elevated risk of storms clipping the NE Caribbean on their way to the Bahamas and south Florida to the Carolinas. Also, bumped my numbers up to 17/8/3, including "One" and "Arlene".

[NDG]

What I look for are the trends, surely the multi model consensus is not backing down. If anything they are making their case stronger as we get closer in time.

[SFLcane]

Were is wxman57 i would certainly like to here his thoughts?

That NMME precipitation forecast looks very close to what I'm thinking for the season. Much of the Caribbean may be dry, but I think there's an elevated risk of storms clipping the NE Caribbean on their way to the Bahamas and south Florida to the Carolinas.

[cycloneye]

Were is wxman57 i would certainly like to here his thoughts?

That NMME precipitation forecast looks very close to what I'm thinking for the season. Much of the Caribbean may be dry, but I think there's an elevated risk of storms clipping the NE Caribbean on their way to the Bahamas and south Florida to the Carolinas.

Dont like those words "clipping the NE Caribbean"

[NDG]

The last 7 days, nothing close to the usual eastern Caribbean TUTT, and the forecast over the next couple of weeks.

[LarryWx]

Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC/STC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño.

Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC/STC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf:

1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015*

* notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status.

This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them.

In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%, This compares to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

[wxman57]

Were is wxman57 i would certainly like to here his thoughts?

That NMME precipitation forecast looks very close to what I'm thinking for the season. Much of the Caribbean may be dry, but I think there's an elevated risk of storms clipping the NE Caribbean on their way to the Bahamas and south Florida to the Carolinas.

Dont like those words "clipping the NE Caribbean"

Yeah, you're in the clipped part, Luis.

[Category5Kaiju]

Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño.

Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf:

1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015*

* notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status.

This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them.

In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%, This compared to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

1957 should be bolded; that was an El Nino year with a June Category 3 (near Category 4) hurricane

[crownweather]

Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño.

Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf:

1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015*

* notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status.

This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them.

In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%, This compared to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

In my seasonal forecast I posted back in late March, I went with the following analog years (which still seem very valid, based on the latest data) - 1899, 1918, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 1997 & 2009. Based on the statistic of late June TC genesis in the western Caribbean/Gulf, 4 out of the 9 analog years had a late June TC, which comes out to about to a ratio of about 44%.

Also, CSU's June 1 seasonal forecast had the following analog years - 1951, 1957, 1969, 2004 and 2006. Based on the same statistics, 2 out of the 5 analog years had a late June TC, which is a 40% ratio.

Just thought it was interesting.

[LarryWx]

Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño.

Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf:

1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015*

* notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status.

This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them.

In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%, This compared to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

1957 should be bolded; that was an El Nino year with a June Category 3 (near Category 4) hurricane

Duly noted about Audrey. Also, in terms of very high impact storms, there are at least two others in the list:

- Agnes of 1972: record breaking flooding in US mid Atlantic states

- Alberto of 1994: record breaking flooding in SE US

[LarryWx]

What I look for are the trends, surely the multi model consensus is not backing down. If anything they are making their case stronger as we get closer in time.

https://i.imgur.com/GphGvqO.gif

I checked at Miami the 6 wettest El Niño Julys, Augusts, and Septembers on record to see how much rain was from a nearby TC:

July:
1929: 9"/no nearby TC
1939: 14" (3rd wettest on record)/no nearby TC
1941: 15" (wettest on record)/no nearby TC
1957: 10"/no nearby TC
2002: 13" (5th wettest on record)/no nearby TC
2014: 10"/no heavy from nearby TS Arthur

August:
1905: 13"/no nearby TC
1939: 11"/no heavy from nearby H #2
1957: 17" (3rd wettest on record)/no nearby TC
1994: 17" (2nd wettest on record)/no nearby TC
2004: 10"/no heavy from nearby H Charley
2006: 13"/no heavy from nearby Chris remnants or TS Ernesto

September:
1929: 17"/very heavy from MH #2
1940: 18"/no nearby TC
1953: 13"/no nearby TC
1979: 13"/~4.5" from David/Frederic
1994: 14"/no nearby TC
2006: 17"/no nearby TC
------------------
Summary for these 18 very wet El Niño year Julys, Augusts, and Septembers:

- Only 2 of the 18 (Septs of 1929 and 1979) actually had heavy rain from a nearby TC interestingly enough
- Only 1 of the 6 Julys had nearby TC (Arthur)
- But 3 of the 6 Augusts had nearby TC, including 2 in 2006
- But 2 of the 6 Augusts had nearby hurricane
- But 2 of the 6 Septembers had 1-2 nearby hurricanes

[InfernoFlameCat]

Does El Niño enhance winters for the southeast? What implications does it have on winter weather?

[SFLcane]

Does El Niño enhance winters for the southeast? What implications does it have on winter weather?

Sure, it has a magnitude of implications for the wx across the Southeast.

https://www.weather.gov/tae/enso

[cycloneye]

Unprecedented warmup.

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1666883057041944576

[SFLcane]

Unprecedented warmup.

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1666883057041944576

[cycloneye]

Unprecedented warmup.

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1666883057041944576

https://i.postimg.cc/kgnV28Hs/sst.png

Thankfully is not August/September.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1666943231249076230

[weeniepatrol]