but the Caribbean for an active season has been a graveyard basically. Seems a lot drier than most years as well. While the waters down there are warmer than normal there just isnt much energy down there. So far the models look dead there into Oct.
hardly any Caribbean or Gulf activity this year. An uneventful season overall. Everything in the open atl and north atl.
I'm thinking next year is the big season for US landfalls.
Hopefully this continues but it looks like October is going to remain rather favorable throughout the Caribbean/mdr. As CV season comes to a close, 60W into the Caribbean is where climo should favor intense activity (this assumes that you can trust climo this year). I won't be surprised if another disturbance or two tries to get going there despite the strong el nino.
Also the big gap in major landfalls was luck! Hurricane Ike had it been 90 miles north would have been a mega disaster for the US. Major hurricane for the Florida Keys and a strong cat4 into the Houston area. it would been epic.
Even if you ignore the two Caribbean geneses (Franklin and Idalia, both of which became majors later), the relatively quiet Caribbean is more of a result of waves moving further north before even reaching there (due to the weak Bermuda high), rather than hostile conditions in the Caribbean itself. An August CAG genesis certainly doesn't scream hostile to me.
In 2020, the only hurricane in the Caribbean up to September was Cat 1 Nana. We all know what happened in October and November. (Not saying 2023 will be a repeat)
And FWIW, models looked dead in mid-August just before Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold and Idalia formed.