2023 WPAC Season

[NotSparta]

Seriously, what the heck are these GFS runs?
https://i.postimg.cc/Dy5zkQVW/gfs-z850-vort-wpac-fh0-384.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9yxsLpT/gfs-z850-vort-wpac-fh0-384-1.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/cJzmD812/gfs-z850-vort-wpac-fh0-384-2.gif

Westerly flow over Taiwan will do that to the GFS

[Iceresistance]

What the absolute heck is this 18z GFS? It's nutso!


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/ScHEZ.gif
(Full run at high speed)

[Hurricane2022]

What the absolute heck is this 18z GFS? It's nutso!

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/ScHEZ.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/ScHEZ.gif
(Full run at high speed)

GFS is showing the same thing since yesterday...

[Hayabusa]

TSR August update is coming soon but I am surprised the July 7 update wasn't posted...
Predicted ACE down to 382


https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2023.pdf

[zzzh]

TSR August update:
29/20/14, ace 393. Numbers are slightly higher than July forecast.

[cycloneye]

TSR August update:
29/20/14, ace 393. Numbers are slightly higher than July forecast.

The PDF?

[zzzh]

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastAugust2023.pdf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

With Dora's entry into the WestPac as a typhoon, we now have an unofficial streak of seven consecutive typhoons. This could've been official had Talim been properly classified by the JMA.

Sanvu would be the only system to not have been upgraded by the JTWC.

Even if we're three named storms behind the average to date (7 vs average of around 10 per CSU), we're substantially above normal in terms of ACE, typhoon, and intense/major typhoon days. In other words, our systems have not been many but they have been long-lived and intense. A similar picture in the EPac atm, which has 5 (vs the average of 8) named storms to date but evidently high ACE.

Quite an impressive quality-over-quantity season in both sides of the Pacific. We have a whopping 19.1 ACE per storm and 15.08 in the EPac.

[Hayabusa]

The whole of August would be active if the GFS is right, and possibly continuously through September as shown on CFS weekly

[Hayabusa]

After some break and weak TDs, this basin is getting real again in the 3rd week of September

[al78]

WPAC seems to have gone on haitus, a little surprising as it is peak season and El Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Named storm count is way below normal to-date, 12 vs 17. But every other metric has held up quite well, especially Category 3+ days and ACE. In fact, total ACE seems to have passed the annual values for 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Looks like we could have another boost with a pretty intense signal in the SCS and one recurving storm in the long-range (barring the bonkers 06z run).

[Hayabusa]

Looks like the rest of the September isn't going to produce anything fruitful after all (except crap 13W) but the Euro and GFS are developing a 160E'er coming October, as usual GFS is hyping it...

[doomhaMwx]

Really strong signal from both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles that the WPAC will spring back to life within the next two weeks with potentially multiple storms forming.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Believe it or not, both the GFS and ECMWF now agree on a major typhoon emerging over the Marianas in about a week or two.

[doomhaMwx]

Wow, WPAC just had its quietest September on record in what's normally the second busiest month of the year and during an El Niño.

 https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/1708168878973739212

[Hayabusa]

We may still get October TCs in the deep Pacific coming 3rd week...

[Hayabusa]

Models are developing a CPAC crossover

[mrbagyo]

Models are developing a CPAC crossover
https://i.imgur.com/6TXsVLN.png

Actually, there are two low-level circulation / vortices that are active in the Central Pacific at the moment;

one is near 175°W while the other is near 160°W (south of the Hawaiian archipelago) - both are still south of 10°N.

[al78]

NW Pacific gone on haitus again, given the El Nino I would expect another supertyphoon before the year is over.