2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: 111 members are participating
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Those who have not posted yet numbers, what are you waiting for? If you are waiting for NOAA's outlook, it will be up on May 23rd and almost all the experts have come out already. CSU, TSR and others will update in June and July, after the poll closes. You can participate even if you have preliminary numbers as you come later to make then final before the poll closes on May 31rst at midnight EDT.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Since April 8th, there has not been new participants with the poll stucked at 66, and I think is the first time on these annual polls, that this has occured that for a whole week, nobody new comes. Who will break the quiet spell? Below is my post from April 13th.
Those who have not posted yet numbers, what are you waiting for? If you are waiting for NOAA's outlook, it will be up on May 23rd and almost all the experts have come out already. CSU, TSR and others will update in June and July, after the poll closes. You can participate even if you have preliminary numbers as you come later to make then final before the poll closes on May 31rst at midnight EDT.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Thought I would never do this in a forum like S2K where there are many enthusiastic people talking about the tropics all year around. Posting the countdown of the time without a new participant. The stats members want to work, right USTropics and TheAustinMan?
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
cycloneye wrote:Thought I would never do this in a forum like S2K where there are many enthusiastic people talking about the tropics all year around. Posting the countdown of the time without a new participant. The stats members want to work, right USTropics and TheAustinMan?
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
We're going to need to start going PM to PM and shake down some forecasts.
4 likes
- AnnularCane
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
You don't have to be a met or anything, just post something for fun! Nobody's going to beat you up.
6 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Hey guys... I'm still waiting for the first bet of 40/20/10 or higher!
3 likes
Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Take my word on this. The Key to effective advertising is -
Exposure, Exposure, Exposure! I highly recommend cross referencing the Season Poll to the 3 most active Tropics threads (Expert forecasts, Seasonal Indicators, & ENSO). Then, wait a week and do it again. Additionally, i'd add "a sticky note" (or even a mirror link) to the actual section containing those Tropics active threads and have it pinned towards the top of that list.
Exposure, Exposure, Exposure! I highly recommend cross referencing the Season Poll to the 3 most active Tropics threads (Expert forecasts, Seasonal Indicators, & ENSO). Then, wait a week and do it again. Additionally, i'd add "a sticky note" (or even a mirror link) to the actual section containing those Tropics active threads and have it pinned towards the top of that list.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
(Maybe also throw in a handy-dandy S2K Severe Weather Bug-Out Kit - Complete with a single bottled water, a couple slim-jim, 2 candles & some waterproof matches from Dollar Tree, one large garbage bag and some No-Doz. Prize winner to be randomly drawn among Poll Participants on June 1st with Total prize value being $9.25 )
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
chaser1 wrote:Take my word on this. The Key to effective advertising is -
Exposure, Exposure, Exposure! I highly recommend cross referencing the Season Poll to the 3 most active Tropics threads (Expert forecasts, Seasonal Indicators, & ENSO). Then, wait a week and do it again. Additionally, i'd add "a sticky note" (or even a mirror link) to the actual section containing those Tropics active threads and have it pinned towards the top of that list.
What more promotion than having the thread as an announcment at the top of all the forums. I dont know what more to say. The timeticker keeps going ahead.
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
With the discussion of participant numbers, I started to wonder if there was a way to make an educated projection of how many more people may join based upon who has previously participated. I started making a spreadsheet with the screennames of every participant going back to 2013 (that seemed like a good place to stop) along with years they submitted a prediction. Frankly, I don't know why I did this as it ended up being quite tedious, but it's done. The usual caveats apply in that I was working with lists that had occasional typos and duplicates, not to mention I may have made errors. That being said, I feel confident this is quite accurate overall.
To reiterate, this data spans from 2013-2024, so it's 12 seasons in total. As of this post, nine members have participated in every poll from 2013-2024. Additionally, there are five members who were in all 11 polls through 2023 so it's probable they'll eventually post numbers this year. There are many members who've participated in the last 2+ polls (or 8 of the last 10, things like that) but have yet to post this year, so they're decent bets to post sooner or later as well. There also are many fresh faces; 13 members are participating for the first time this year! Maybe I'll end up in that group. =D
2013 had 160 participants, but subsequent years were generally around 100 with dips to the low 80s in 2019 and 2023. As for 2024, I suspect it will end up with the most participants since 2013. That being said, getting near 160 (let alone surpassing it) would be a feat. Perhaps the hype surrounding this season will invite a blurt of participation as June 1st nears.
Did I spend too much time on this? Am I nuts? Yes and yes. At one point I almost stopped and binned the whole thing but ultimately decided to see the task through. I'm not going to update or maintain this – sincerely, I don't know what I was thinking – but if anyone is interested I'd be happy to pass the baton and give the spreadsheet to them.
To reiterate, this data spans from 2013-2024, so it's 12 seasons in total. As of this post, nine members have participated in every poll from 2013-2024. Additionally, there are five members who were in all 11 polls through 2023 so it's probable they'll eventually post numbers this year. There are many members who've participated in the last 2+ polls (or 8 of the last 10, things like that) but have yet to post this year, so they're decent bets to post sooner or later as well. There also are many fresh faces; 13 members are participating for the first time this year! Maybe I'll end up in that group. =D
2013 had 160 participants, but subsequent years were generally around 100 with dips to the low 80s in 2019 and 2023. As for 2024, I suspect it will end up with the most participants since 2013. That being said, getting near 160 (let alone surpassing it) would be a feat. Perhaps the hype surrounding this season will invite a blurt of participation as June 1st nears.
Did I spend too much time on this? Am I nuts? Yes and yes. At one point I almost stopped and binned the whole thing but ultimately decided to see the task through. I'm not going to update or maintain this – sincerely, I don't know what I was thinking – but if anyone is interested I'd be happy to pass the baton and give the spreadsheet to them.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
gib wrote:With the discussion of participant numbers, I started to wonder if there was a way to make an educated projection of how many more people may join based upon who has previously participated. I started making a spreadsheet with the screennames of every participant going back to 2013 (that seemed like a good place to stop) along with years they submitted a prediction. Frankly, I don't know why I did this as it ended up being quite tedious, but it's done. The usual caveats apply in that I was working with lists that had occasional typos and duplicates, not to mention I may have made errors. That being said, I feel confident this is quite accurate overall.
To reiterate, this data spans from 2013-2024, so it's 12 seasons in total. As of this post, nine members have participated in every poll from 2013-2024. Additionally, there are five members who were in all 11 polls through 2023 so it's probable they'll eventually post numbers this year. There are many members who've participated in the last 2+ polls (or 8 of the last 10, things like that) but have yet to post this year, so they're decent bets to post sooner or later as well. There also are many fresh faces; 13 members are participating for the first time this year! Maybe I'll end up in that group. =D
2013 had 160 participants, but subsequent years were generally around 100 with dips to the low 80s in 2019 and 2023. As for 2024, I suspect it will end up with the most participants since 2013. That being said, getting near 160 (let alone surpassing it) would be a feat. Perhaps the hype surrounding this season will invite a blurt of participation as June 1st nears.
Did I spend too much time on this? Am I nuts? Yes and yes. At one point I almost stopped and binned the whole thing but ultimately decided to see the task through. I'm not going to update or maintain this – sincerely, I don't know what I was thinking – but if anyone is interested I'd be happy to pass the baton and give the spreadsheet to them.
Thanks for those stats. All I want now is to stop the counter going up. https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive After that person post numbers as #67, we will see what occurs down the road and when the poll closes.
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- mcheer23
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
mcheer23 wrote:24/8/4 200 ACE
Preliminary
Raising mine to
26/10/5 213 ACE
I'll post my final numbers in late May
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- cycloneye
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
mcheer23 wrote:mcheer23 wrote:24/8/4 200 ACE
Preliminary
Raising mine to
26/10/5 213 ACE
I'll post my final numbers in late May
Done.
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- Hurricane2022
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
The question of the year: who will be participant number #67 in this poll?? Whoever gets it right will receive 1 million dollars + a free trip to see and take a tour inside the NHC
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Hurricane2022 wrote:The question of the year: who will be participant number #67 in this poll?? Whoever gets it right will receive 1 million dollars + a free trip to see and take a tour inside the NHC
Now THERE'S a way to get people to post their predictions. They'll probably be tripping over each other to post one.
1 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
I'm calling it the 'active season effect'. After 2004, there was a bunch more participants in 2005. After 2005, 2006 I believe had the most participants. If we get an active year, more people join Storm2k/interested in tropical weather, and more people participate in the poll the year after.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
USTropics wrote:I'm calling it the 'active season effect'. After 2004, there was a bunch more participants in 2005. After 2005, 2006 I believe had the most participants. If we get an active year, more people join Storm2k/interested in tropical weather, and more people participate in the poll the year after.
That is a great point. Ummm. 9 days is too much time without a new one.
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
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- TheAustinMan
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
As we wait for the magical 67th participant for this year's poll, here's a look at the "climatological ACE" for previous editions of this poll (climatological ACE is the ACE expected for a given number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, based on long-term averages). The red line is the Storm2K average, the red shading marks the middle 50% of guesses, and the vertical red whiskers mark +/- 1 standard deviation from the mean. The gray line is the climatological ACE given the season's actual storm counts, and the black line is the actual ACE generated during the season.
Similar to CSU, the Storm2K poll in 2013 and prior was not particularly accurate, but has been better in the years since. Between 2004 and 2013, the actual ACE or actual climatological ACE was within the middle 50% of Storm2K guesses only 3 out of 10 seasons. Since then, this has happened 8 out of 10 seasons, with 2017 being underforecast and 2022 being overforecast.
Similar to CSU, the Storm2K poll in 2013 and prior was not particularly accurate, but has been better in the years since. Between 2004 and 2013, the actual ACE or actual climatological ACE was within the middle 50% of Storm2K guesses only 3 out of 10 seasons. Since then, this has happened 8 out of 10 seasons, with 2017 being underforecast and 2022 being overforecast.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
The stats from our friends USTropics and TheAustinMan says it all. The Storm2k Hurricane Season Numbers Polls are the best in social media by far as the stats they crunch tell the story and rival those from the experts. This is why I am very surprised this poll has been thru a participationless spell of 9 days and counting. Hopefully, after the above stats post, members come and post numbers. I will celebrate putting many smilies to #67.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in social media)
Ooof, kind of late to the party but that's alright, I shall post my numbers
NS: 24
H: 11
MH: 6
ACE of 215 (this is final )
NS: 24
H: 11
MH: 6
ACE of 215 (this is final )
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