2024 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

2023 was an active quality season as the numbers were 17/10/8, with El Niño in place and among the highlights are, a horrific landfall in Acapulco, Mexico from Hurricane Otis, Hilary goes to southern California and Dora was a long lasting powerful hurricane. This 2024 one will have a decaying El Niño and it will be between Neutral and La Niña for the summer months and also the -PDO, so let's see how this season plays out. What are the expectations from the members who follow this basin?

Names to be used for the 2024 season:

Aletta
Bud
Carlotta
Daniel
Emilia
Fabio
Gilma
Hector
Ileana
John
Kristy
Lane
Miriam
Norman
Olivia
Paul
Rosa
Sergio
Tara
Vicente
Willa
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

[Teban54]

You missed Aletta in the naming list. Also, shouldn't all names have "(Unused)" at this time?

[DioBrando]

Poor Aletta

[cycloneye]

You missed Aletta in the naming list. Also, shouldn't all names have "(Unused)" at this time?

Oh boy, I thought it was when copy and pasted, but is now.

[Kingarabian]

Depending on what kind of -ENSO we get, (La Nina or cool neutral), I'm thinking something similar to the last couple of years. Good amount of named systems probably up to 17, while ACE continues to be near or below average.

[cycloneye]

Despite the expectations for a not too active season, I can see a longtracker hurricane form and my numbers are 15/7/3.

[Hurricane2022]

Despite the expectations for a not too active season, I can see a longtracker hurricane form and my numbers are 15/7/3.

My numbers are 18/9/2 and 125 ACE points...

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Good chance we'll end up less active than this past season given the likely ENSO flip. One thing I've noticed in recent seasons however is that the NS count has remained relatively elevated regardless (usually 17+). Even 2020 which was definitely one of the worst seasons quality-wise in recent memory finished with 17 NS which is pretty decent all things considered, but of course that was mostly a wash when just 4 of those became hurricanes (hence why it was a bottom 10 season in terms of ACE). Not saying we'll see that level of disparity again in 2024 but I'd definitely expect a drop off in HU and MH if the anticipated Niña does materialize.

[Yellow Evan]

Until ENSO becomes clearer, it’s too soon to say. Post-+ENSO years range from the least to second most active on record, but the likelihood of -PDO does not make me particularly optimistic.


Named storms just isn’t a good metric to evaluate hurricane seasons.

[Yellow Evan]

Depending on what kind of -ENSO we get, (La Nina or cool neutral), I'm thinking something similar to the last couple of years. Good amount of named systems probably up to 17, while ACE continues to be near or below average.

FWIW last year ended up at 165 ACE. Easily the highest since 2018.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1743382273926328704

[cycloneye]

Interesting.

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1754252684910326146

[Yellow Evan]

The recent emergence of a cold tongue off South America does not match the composite of the successful post-+ENSO years.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The recent emergence of a cold tongue off South America does not match the composite of the successful post-+ENSO years.

What would you consider a "successful" Niño-to-Niña EPAC season in that regard? Something like 2016 maybe? Or '98 which had a lower NS count but above avg. HU/MH?

[Yellow Evan]

The recent emergence of a cold tongue off South America does not match the composite of the successful post-+ENSO years.

What would you consider a "successful" Niño-to-Niña EPAC season in that regard? Something like 2016 maybe? Or '98 which had a lower NS count but above avg. HU/MH?

2016/1983/1998/1992/1978 all had equatorial far EPAC warm tongues that lingered into the early summer and all but 1998 were in conjunction with a +PDO and and all but 1998 and 2016 occurred during a -AMO. All had higher ACE than average, with 3 of those likely producing >=250 ACE.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1784998513937465837

[Ntxw]

Maybe something like 1973 I can see happening. First half of the season through July has some big dogs but fades after that.

[Kingarabian]

I'm thinking of 2017 for the EPAC. Starts off with good quantity but a serious lack of quality. Probably very few long tracking systems.

[cycloneye]

The CPC hazards latches EPAC for possible development.

[Yellow Evan]

Need the subtropical jet to clear for significant TC activity. None of the models truly show that.