2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
The CanSIPS climate model for May is up and is a hyperactive look. Here are August and September.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
May CanSIPS is similar and slightly more extreme in terms of precipitation anomalies than last month's run. SSTs in the MDR are even higher and the subtropics are a little bit cooler (read = less warm, but still extreme) than in last month's run. The MDR even has a region with a +1.8 degree temperature anomaly and on average based on a visual look the MDR looks to be around +1.2 degrees which would result in similar or slightly higher SST anomalies than 2023.
JAS
ASO
SON
JAS
ASO
SON
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
kevin wrote:May CanSIPS is similar and slightly more extreme in terms of precipitation anomalies than last month's run. SSTs in the MDR are even higher and the subtropics are a little bit cooler (read = less warm, but still extreme) than in last month's run. The MDR even has a region with a +1.8 degree temperature anomaly and on average based on a visual look the MDR looks to be around +1.2 degrees which would result in similar or slightly higher SST anomalies than 2023.
Notice the dry signal in the EPAC- that alone tells me the Atlantic takes over
JAS
https://i.imgur.com/tyqHUns.png
ASO
https://i.imgur.com/We0C66b.png
SON
https://i.imgur.com/fc8gTSM.png
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
kevin wrote:May CanSIPS is similar and slightly more extreme in terms of precipitation anomalies than last month's run. SSTs in the MDR are even higher and the subtropics are a little bit cooler (read = less warm, but still extreme) than in last month's run. The MDR even has a region with a +1.8 degree temperature anomaly and on average based on a visual look the MDR looks to be around +1.2 degrees which would result in similar or slightly higher SST anomalies than 2023.
JAS
https://i.imgur.com/tyqHUns.png
ASO
https://i.imgur.com/We0C66b.png
SON
https://i.imgur.com/fc8gTSM.png
Could probably frame this run in a museum. It'll be hard to top this look.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
When phil tweeting the Cansips you know this season means business.
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1785654918889472385
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1785654918889472385
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Dr Levi's take. Hope he does video about the season.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1785796314942583162
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1785796314942583162
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Cansips Trends on MSLP for Sept.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Since December 2023, there is not one single forecasted metric/determinant that points to anything other than a hyper-active tropical season for the Atlantic. It is worrisome, indeed.
I live in Galveston County, TX. Effects from Harvey aside, the last substantial, direct hit here was in 2008. I can only pray that streak continues.....
I live in Galveston County, TX. Effects from Harvey aside, the last substantial, direct hit here was in 2008. I can only pray that streak continues.....
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) CanSIPS May run posted
cycloneye wrote:The CanSIPS climate model for May is up and is a hyperactive look. Here are August and September.
https://i.imgur.com/GyLz3yQ.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/Jd5IfXa.jpeg
The Guianas being dry during a La Niña year usually means numerous tropical cyclones are passing to the north. Can't get more textbook that this.
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- cycloneye
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2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
This looks like a pattern that hasn't been seen in quite some time save for a smattering of years.
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
What I find interesting about the possible steering pattern is no Western Heat Doom-Death Ridge yet and nothing on the models. In the last five years by early May, the Western Death Ridge was already becoming established in the SW. Due to the lack of a mean Western Heat Doom-Death Ridge, the downstream pattern across North America is much more progressive this spring and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future.
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