When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

[Category5Kaiju]

You know, this question was indeed interesting in 2015. Since then:

1. We had an above average season with one of Haiti's worst natural disasters.
2. We had Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico get impacted by Cat 4 hurricanes.
3. We had a flooding disaster in the Carolinas and a Cat 5 landfall in Florida.
4. We had a Cat 5 landfall in the Bahamas and one of the strongest hurricanes of all time.
5. We had yet another Cat 4 CONUS landfall and two systems that brought devastation to Central America and an end to Greek alphabet naming.
6. We had yet another Cat 4 CONUS landfall.
7. We had Florida's costliest hurricane on record.
8. We had a Cat 3 CONUS landfall.

So, yeah, idk. You tell me what's happening.

[ScottNAtlanta]

We talk about a "27 year" oscillation, but in all honesty, how long have we had real comprehensive ocean data? My guess is that it would be hard to identify 30+- cycles because of that.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Clearly the multi-decade oscillation looks different as the baseline drifts upwards. This is climate change.

[skyline385]

We talk about a "27 year" oscillation, but in all honesty, how long have we had real comprehensive ocean data? My guess is that it would be hard to identify 30+- cycles because of that.

Even the guy who came up with the AMO doesn't believe its an oscillating cycle anymore. The era will probably end sometime but with global warming its not going to be much cooler.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think if I traveled back in time to 2015 and told everybody here that in 5 years the Atlantic would break 2005's NS record and that after that the Atlantic would be no longer using the Greek alphabet, I probably would've been flamed and received a nice stern warning about trolling by the admins

[wxman57]

I've discussed this with Klotzbach. It looked like we went into a cool cycle in 2013. See the link below. However, the tropics kept spiking warm every summer. Quite different from the previous cool cycle.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

[Teban54]

I've discussed this with Klotzbach. It looked like we went into a cool cycle in 2013. See the link below. However, the tropics kept spiking warm every summer. Quite different from the previous cool cycle.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

Judging from this chart alone, could it be that the "cool cycle" only lasted about 10 years (2013-2022) before returning to the warm cycle in 2023? Also, given the activity of these years (especially since 2016) that are unmatched in previous -AMO eras, perhaps even the -AMO "era" much more active now than they previously were?

(All this is assuming we had a cool cycle in the first place.)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I've discussed this with Klotzbach. It looked like we went into a cool cycle in 2013. See the link below. However, the tropics kept spiking warm every summer. Quite different from the previous cool cycle.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

Judging from this chart alone, could it be that the "cool cycle" only lasted about 10 years (2013-2022) before returning to the warm cycle in 2023? Also, given the activity of these years (especially since 2016) that are unmatched in previous -AMO eras, perhaps even the -AMO "era" much more active now than they previously were?

(All this is assuming we had a cool cycle in the first place.)

The baseline is rising.

[NotSparta]

I've discussed this with Klotzbach. It looked like we went into a cool cycle in 2013. See the link below. However, the tropics kept spiking warm every summer. Quite different from the previous cool cycle.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

Reminds me of the +PDO in the 2010s. It does exist there but ends rather quickly as we are evidently not in -AMO anymore (in agreement with the graph)