2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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AnnularCane
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#81 Postby AnnularCane » Sat May 18, 2024 7:27 pm

I thought it was the second phantom of the season. Maybe I'm thinking of something else. Like gyres. 8-)
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#82 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 18, 2024 7:58 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:Everybody loves GFS. :D :lol: :spam: :roll: :layout: :splat: :roflmao: :yayaya: :Toilet: :bd:
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp


First phantom of the season, the 2024 season begins now. The GFS trying to recreate Ian with that outflow lol :D

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/X78b5pvM/image.png [/url]


Ah yes. :D :D :D

Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#83 Postby chaser1 » Sat May 18, 2024 9:34 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:Everybody loves GFS. :D :lol: :spam: :roll: :layout: :splat: :roflmao: :yayaya: :Toilet: :bd:
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp


Of course it’s probably just another phantom storm. I’m sure we’re no stranger to that.

But….hey, if there was ever a year that features that kind of system, it’s probably going to be this year lol


Me loves a good happy hour :wink:
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#84 Postby chaser1 » Sat May 18, 2024 9:39 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:Everybody loves GFS. :D :lol: :spam: :roll: :layout: :splat: :roflmao: :yayaya: :Toilet: :bd:
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp


First phantom of the season, the 2024 season begins now. The GFS trying to recreate Ian with that outflow lol :D

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/X78b5pvM/image.png [/url]


Ah yes. :D :D :D

https://cdn.britannica.com/09/238409-050-6BC61695/Hurrican-Ian-over-Gulf-Of-Mexico-NOAA-GOES-Satellite-image-September-27-2022.jpg


That looks about right for June 3rd :lol: Boy, is it gonna be a LONG season or what??
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#85 Postby AnnularCane » Sat May 18, 2024 10:03 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:Everybody loves GFS. :D :lol: :spam: :roll: :layout: :splat: :roflmao: :yayaya: :Toilet: :bd:
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp


Of course it’s probably just another phantom storm. I’m sure we’re no stranger to that.

But….hey, if there was ever a year that features that kind of system, it’s probably going to be this year lol


Me loves a good happy hour :wink:


:Partytime:

Enjoy it while you can, for someday it will be for real. :eek:
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#86 Postby chaser1 » Sat May 18, 2024 10:40 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Of course it’s probably just another phantom storm. I’m sure we’re no stranger to that.

But….hey, if there was ever a year that features that kind of system, it’s probably going to be this year lol


Me loves a good happy hour :wink:


:Partytime:

Enjoy it while you can, for someday it will be for real. :eek:


FACT!
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#87 Postby tiger_deF » Sat May 18, 2024 11:05 pm

00z GFS keeps on trying to spin up a TD/TS from the northern lobe of a CAG moving off of Panama in a few days. Given the time of the year, this wouldn't be unprecedented via climatology. Would be an uphill battle for this disturbance, but as has been said before it would have a secondary shot at development once it is North of the Antilles.

Wouldn't be surprised if this gets tagged in a couple of days or sooner.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#88 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 19, 2024 1:06 am

tiger_deF wrote:00z GFS keeps on trying to spin up a TD/TS from the northern lobe of a CAG moving off of Panama in a few days. Given the time of the year, this wouldn't be unprecedented via climatology. Would be an uphill battle for this disturbance, but as has been said before it would have a secondary shot at development once it is North of the Antilles.

Wouldn't be surprised if this gets tagged in a couple of days or sooner.


"A couple of days or sooner"? I think your odds of winning the lottery (without even buying a ticket) are greater. Climatology minus (-) a tropical disturbance = a fever-dream
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#89 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 20, 2024 11:08 am

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#90 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 20, 2024 5:20 pm

That little disturbance from the Caribbean on the GFS which Levi said could have a brief chance at being a STS now showing up on the Euro too.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#91 Postby Stratton23 » Mon May 20, 2024 6:08 pm

The 18z GFS has a pretty active SA monsoonal gyre, with another piece of energy trying to develop near the yucatan, first week of june so it could easily be another false alarm from the GFS, but something to casually watch as any sort of CAG like setup could help to produce low pressure in the caribbean
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#92 Postby jfk08c » Mon May 20, 2024 10:53 pm

Stratton23 wrote:The 18z GFS has a pretty active SA monsoonal gyre, with another piece of energy trying to develop near the yucatan, first week of june so it could easily be another false alarm from the GFS, but something to casually watch as any sort of CAG like setup could help to produce low pressure in the caribbean


Both GEFS and GEPS showing pretty strong signal around that time. Time will tell if it sticks, still a ways to go
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#93 Postby kevin » Wed May 22, 2024 6:45 am

GFS has shown this feature for a lot of runs already and formation is now already at +48 hours and about 3 days until it's fully closed. Could this be the first (sub-)tropical storm of the season?

+48
Image

+78
Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#94 Postby Jr0d » Wed May 22, 2024 7:12 am

kevin wrote:GFS has shown this feature for a lot of runs already and formation is now already at +48 hours and about 3 days until it's fully closed. Could this be the first (sub-)tropical storm of the season?



This 'disturbance' is already causing some rain for Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

Only the GFS shows it possibly becoming something to track as it pulls north of the islands. The NHC certainly is not buying the GFS solution.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#95 Postby chaser1 » Wed May 22, 2024 8:44 am

I'll say this much, it is a viable tropical disturbance on the western edge of a significant upper high. The upper ventilation in concert with the warm SST's are helping to fuel some decent convection. While I do not see any low level organization, I wouldn't say it has no shot at slow development. Kinda depends on persistence and motion. I've got to give the GFS some props for consistency though and this alone warrants rationale consideration. The pressure field/gradient certainly would appear adequate if the GFS were to verify, yet the SST up at that latitude are not at all warm (sub 25C?). Still, lets see what happens and especially if the feature develops some level of reasonable tropical characteristics AND persistence. At least we won't have any imminent landfall impact to force unnecessary tropical designation soley for the sake of immediate warnings.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#96 Postby Stratton23 » Wed May 22, 2024 2:51 pm

Although i dont really expect any sort of tropical mischief until june, models are showing over the next 10-14 days a couple of weak fronts moving through the state and out into the gulf, with the gulf running way above normal its always worth watching any sort of front that can get out over the warm gulf waters, its likely that nothing will happen, but you know the saying, never trust a front in the gulf
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#97 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed May 22, 2024 3:32 pm

chaser1 wrote:I'll say this much, it is a viable tropical disturbance on the western edge of a significant upper high. The upper ventilation in concert with the warm SST's are helping to fuel some decent convection. While I do not see any low level organization, I wouldn't say it has no shot at slow development. Kinda depends on persistence and motion. I've got to give the GFS some props for consistency though and this alone warrants rationale consideration. The pressure field/gradient certainly would appear adequate if the GFS were to verify, yet the SST up at that latitude are not at all warm (sub 25C?). Still, lets see what happens and especially if the feature develops some level of reasonable tropical characteristics AND persistence. At least we won't have any imminent landfall impact to force unnecessary tropical designation soley for the sake of immediate warnings.

Even 23C would certainly be enough for a subtropical system to form, just look at what half of stuff in the Mediterranean has to deal with.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#98 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 23, 2024 1:08 am

JetFuel_SE wrote:
chaser1 wrote:I'll say this much, it is a viable tropical disturbance on the western edge of a significant upper high. The upper ventilation in concert with the warm SST's are helping to fuel some decent convection. While I do not see any low level organization, I wouldn't say it has no shot at slow development. Kinda depends on persistence and motion. I've got to give the GFS some props for consistency though and this alone warrants rationale consideration. The pressure field/gradient certainly would appear adequate if the GFS were to verify, yet the SST up at that latitude are not at all warm (sub 25C?). Still, lets see what happens and especially if the feature develops some level of reasonable tropical characteristics AND persistence. At least we won't have any imminent landfall impact to force unnecessary tropical designation soley for the sake of immediate warnings.

Even 23C would certainly be enough for a subtropical system to form, just look at what half of stuff in the Mediterranean has to deal with.


Very true; I just have very little interest in sub-tropical slop (especially having those type of systems named)
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#99 Postby Stratton23 » Thu May 23, 2024 6:07 pm

18z GFS with the happy hour hurricane near the bahamas lol, gotta love it
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#100 Postby skyline385 » Thu May 23, 2024 6:11 pm

Stratton23 wrote:18z GFS with the happy hour hurricane near the bahamas lol, gotta love it

Funny thing is there is a 947mb 12z EPS member taking nearly the exact same path as happy hour GFS
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu May 23, 2024 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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