2024 EPAC Season

[JetFuel_SE]

Looks like this basin will have to wait a while longer for Aletta to show up.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear marginal and
development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it
moves westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system
is no longer expected due to nearby dry air and unfavorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

First Northern Hemisphere flop in 2024? Or do they not count if they never even got tagged as invests?

perhaps it could have been a bust, as the GFS was persistent for a while in showing a hurricane until stopping everything 2 days ago. The CMC was also on board predicting a moderate TS. Several ensembles also showed the formation of something there, but as King Euro never actually showed anything, I don't think it was necessarily a bust.

So, All Hail King Euro.

The Euro is complete trash at TCG anyways.

[cycloneye]

NOAA EPAC outlook:

11-17 Named Storms
4-9 Hurricanes
1-4 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 50%-110% of the median.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ndex.shtml

The latest monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies reflect El Niño conditions, on the path to the predicted La Niña, and a negative PDO structure, while also showing the North Atlantic SSTs as above-normal for much of the basin. SST anomalies in the regions where many of the tropical storms and hurricanes form (110°W - 140°W) are near normal. The predicted SST anomaly patterns indicate near or below-average SSTs across the eastern Pacific hurricane region, though there is some evidence of influence from the negative PDO related circulation pushing cooler waters southward. The cooler waters are expected to occur mainly east of 120°W. SSTs across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) are above normal, with near record warmth. Historically, this combination tends to be associated with below-normal hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific, as La Niña does tend to have a larger influence than either the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Atlantic conditions. La Niña conditions, concurrent with a negative PDO, are common and found to reinforce a negative PDO.

The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates La Niña conditions are likely through the hurricane season. The ENSO influence on eastern Pacific hurricane activity is highly dependent upon the background SST patterns across the eastern Pacific hurricane region and the Atlantic MDR. The combination of La Niña and above-normal temperatures in the Atlantic MDR tends to favor decreased eastern Pacific hurricane activity, often resulting in a below-normal hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

We can post our forecast for EPAC as the season began yesterday. My numbers are 13/6/2.

Going to change my prediction to a lower bar as I see this basin inactive because of the -PDO combined with La Niña. I now go with 9/4/1.

[Yellow Evan]

I don’t see high activity with the basin wide -ENSO event in conjunction with -PDO not to mention the Atlantic warmth. Reminds me of 2010 even if I’m not sure La Niña will be quite as strong.

Single digit named storms might be a bit overkill. I’ll have final numbers on my Twitter soon (and for the Atlantic too for that matter).

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could a few hundred miles to the south
of southern Mexico over the weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the early and middle portions of
next week while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/KacperWx/status/1796227802993447148

[Kingarabian]

CMC is the most aggressive with this.

[cycloneye]

Another one bites the dust.

[Kingarabian]

Seems like models are starting to hint that the EPAC can foster TCs soon. But nothing decent yet.

I think we'll see typical June July development followed by a pause. How long that pause or drastic reduction in TCs forming lasts depends on when the Atlantic gets going.

[cycloneye]

By the look, this area has to be with more than 10%. Looks good at this time.

[cycloneye]

It tried to organize on sunday, but the big demise has arrived.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become less organized since
yesterday in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain
unfavorable, and development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Blake

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/xavierburnswx/status/1799443380067315732




Another slow start to the Epac season

[cycloneye]

With the -ENSO Neutral to La NIña and the -PDO, will cause this season to be below average. The normal average is 15/8/4.

[Kingarabian]

Could see a TC on the EPAC side from this CAG.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the stats or list of late season starts of the EPAC? So far 2024 is 0/0/0 and ACE 0.00. In case any member forgot, the season runs from May 15th thru November 30th.

[Kingarabian]

Does anyone has the stats or list of late season starts of the EPAC? So far 2024 is 0/0/0 and ACE 0.00. In case any member forgot, the season runs from May 15th thru November 30th.

1999 and 2009 didn't get their first systems until after mid June.

[Kingarabian]

Probably will see another lemon this week off of Mexico. Models agree that a low will form within 4 days.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Does anyone has the stats or list of late season starts of the EPAC? So far 2024 is 0/0/0 and ACE 0.00. In case any member forgot, the season runs from May 15th thru November 30th.

1999 and 2009 didn't get their first systems until after mid June.

Last year as well. 2016 didn't see its first epac storm until early July (Not counting the January cpac hurricane).

[cycloneye]

Here we go. Will it be the first TC of this basin?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow
development is possible this weekend and early next week while the
system meanders near the coast of southern Mexico and Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF keep spinning up vorticity in association with the CAG but idk how credible that is.