Disturbance in the Southwestern Atlantic

[kevin]

The system that GFS has consistently shown now also has a lemon on the NHC page, only 10% for now.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large area of cloudiness and showers over the southwestern
Atlantic is associated with a surface trough. An area of low
pressure is expected to form within this system a few hundred miles
north of Hispaniola in the next day or so. Environmental conditions
are not expected to be conducive, however, some slight tropical or
subtropical development is possible while the low moves
northeastward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

[Category5Kaiju]

And here we go.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Just in time for the Bermuda Day weekend

[Nimbus]

Looked like just frontal shear this morning but there is some focused energy near the east end of Cuba that has been persistent. And with the predictions of an active year I suppose we need to start watching this kind of stuff.

[ChrisH-UK]

Here it is as of 12:00 UTC