2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.
I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.
I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.
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- NotSparta
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
CyclonicFury wrote:Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.
I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.
The cooler subtropics are hurting a lot of the usual early activity we've gotten accustomed to
The Atlantic right now:
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
NotSparta wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.
I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.
The cooler subtropics are hurting a lot of the usual early activity we've gotten accustomed to
The Atlantic right now:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7d/DJ_Khaled_Suffering_from_Success.jpg
Hmm, maybe the Atlantic might be "sacrificing" subtropical slop with more robust deep tropical activity in the coming months?
Also as a tangent, 2024 is officially the most active tornado season since 2017. Yup, that 2017.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Are we still looking at high numbers even without the usual amount of subtropical development?
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Oh absolutely, lack of subtropical development right now doesnt mean forecast numbers will go down, alot of very busy seasons tend to start off pretty slow
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- skyline385
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
CyclonicFury wrote:Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.
I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.
As others have said, the cooler subtropics are preventing early season activity and almost all of the +AMO hyperactive years have had slower starts because of this. Additionally, Blake also said a few days back that "early season named storm days before 1 August in the deep tropics east of 75W" is the only statistic which correlates to seasonal activity, nothing else has a clear direct relation.
https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1792974186295730433
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- skyline385
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
AnnularCane wrote:Are we still looking at high numbers even without the usual amount of subtropical development?
2005 kicked off mid June and still got 28/15/7
With the La Nina strengthening in the winter and record warm temps in the Caribbean, i fully expect it to be a long drawn out season
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
NotSparta wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.
I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.
The cooler subtropics are hurting a lot of the usual early activity we've gotten accustomed to
The Atlantic right now:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7d/DJ_Khaled_Suffering_from_Success.jpg
So possibly similar to 2010, which didn’t have any NS until the end of June when Alex became a borderline major in the BoC. Maybe we might get a rare strong June storm towards the end of the month as well with how insanely warm the Atlantic is, but that all depends on how favorable other factors are by then.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
IsabelaWeather wrote:Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.
I'm just glad the forum is not canceled. Had no idea there was maintanence going on today on the site.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
MetroMike wrote:IsabelaWeather wrote:Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.
I'm just glad the forum is not canceled. Had no idea there was maintanence going on today on the site.
I think the server just went down from what I know.
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Man the western caribbean and gulf continue to warm up even more, its insane to see
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
IsabelaWeather wrote:Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.
Who is canceling the season?
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- skyline385
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
IsabelaWeather wrote:Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.
But we aren't talking about cancelling the season though, the discussion was whether we will reach large NS count because of lack of early season sub tropical spam which is a legit question in my opinion. It doesn't have anything to do with ACE or impacts from the season. I personally think we will reach a high NS count but there are mets who think otherwise:
https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1792962571441774639
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
IsabelaWeather wrote:Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.
I don't think anybody's canceling the season this early, I think it's just some curiosity as to why the season is not producing a May storm (or doesn't seem to be producing an early June one, according to models).
It's definitely a departure from the norm in recent years; however, the ominous thing about this is that quite a few of the active blockbuster seasons in history (1926, 1950, 1961, 1996, 1998, and 2004 as the primary examples, with 2010 included based on activity alone) didn't see their first named storm until after June 15, and in some cases not until July and August. There are many more historic seasons such as 2008 that featured weak, short-lived systems early and then didn't really pick up until July.
I think there are 2 key things to remember here.
1. When exactly the first named storm forms doesn't necessarily have good correlation with ACE and overall activity levels. Especially during a La Nina year, which tends to feature activity going well into October and November.
2. The fact that we're not getting early season activity might have to do with the El Nino we were just in, but it could also very well be a result of the cooler subtropics being hostile for early season spinups. This isn't necessarily a good thing because that basically signifies that the deep tropics are more than primed for activity had it not been for the typical early-season wind shear.
Watch as Alberto becomes a Category 5 Caribbean cruiser during early July. I'm sure the general attitude will drastically change.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Yeah...it was just an innocent question that came to mind. It wasn't even because of the lack of a May storm.
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Stratton23 wrote:Man the western caribbean and gulf continue to warm up even more, its insane to see
So are the subtropics.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Cpv17 wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Man the western caribbean and gulf continue to warm up even more, its insane to see
So are the subtropics.
There has certainly been some very notable warming of the subtropics in the last 15 days, the classical +AMO look is gone again.
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
It's almost expected just based on recent seasons. We haven't really had a season with cool subtropics by peak season in recent memory.
For example 2017 and 2020 both played out this exact way. Both had large cool patches around this same time, but by August they warmed significantly.
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
Woofde wrote:It's almost expected just based on recent seasons. We haven't really had a season with cool subtropics by peak season in recent memory.skyline385 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
So are the subtropics.
There has certainly been some very notable warming of the subtropics in the last 15 days, the classical +AMO look is gone again.
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/L4jTbtG6/image.png [/url]
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/bw5kJr4B/image.png [/url]
For example 2017 and 2020 both played out this exact way. Both had large cool patches around this same time, but by August they warmed significantly.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240527/00773bb5ee877206995e9f7cf9218004.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240527/3f926f937f879dc03ab995bd901e664c.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240527/ed272918c2b7de1891bee97c77f7aa6b.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240527/abce34f487cff56f5ea4e5356099dfa9.jpg
Goes back even further than 2017/2020, same thing happened in 2005 and 2010 as well:
2005:
2010:
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