2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

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TheAustinMan
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2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

#1 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri May 31, 2024 10:59 pm

And that does it for this year's Storm2K Atlantic hurricane season forecast poll. A total of 111 users participated in this poll, with the most first-day participation since 2007 and the most total participation since 2013. It's also the first time the poll has had over 100 participants since 2016, nearly a decade ago.

The average storm counts for this year's edition was 23.2 / 11.9 / 5.7, with around 204 ACE. These values are the highest in the 21-year history of the Storm2K poll, reflecting the worryingly high expectations for this year's tropical activity amid record heat in the Atlantic and a cool neutral/La Nina ENSO state. The mean number of named storms beat the previous record by 3 storms, and the mean number of hurricanes beat the previous record by 1.5.

Historically, comparable years to the Storm2k average counts include seasons like 1933, 1995, 2010, and 2017.

If we take the middle 50% of guesses, the Storm2K "ensemble" projects 21-25 named storms, 10-13 hurricanes, and 5-7 major hurricanes, with 190-220 ACE.

Storm2K's average for this year was quite close to the average of agency forecasts compiled by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (23/11/5 with 206 ACE), though it's worth noting that many of the Storm2k guesses preceded these agency forecasts. It's pretty neat that as a collective we produce estimates consistent with major agencies.

There is strong consensus for an exceptionally active year. An overwhelming majority of users (over 90%) predicted values that would qualify "extremely active" in the Climate Prediction Center's season activity definitions, and there were no predictions that would be considered "near normal" or "below normal". This is the first time this has happened in the poll's history. Never in the history of the poll has "extremely active" characterized such a large majority of user predictions.

In general, forecasts were remarkably consistent during the two months the poll was active. The average climatology-based ACE for all guesses on March 10 was 204, and the average for all guesses after that was... 205. At no point did the 7-day moving average for climatology-based ACE dip below 170. Guesses were also fairly similar among the usergroups.

Hopefully, the season will not be as active or impactful as anticipated (2006 was the last time the poll was anywhere near as aggressive...), but thus far it does look like this could be a bad season. As always, stay prepared and up to date on the tropics.

Source: Created using Microsoft Excel. Hurricane Idalia is the background on this year's poll summary graphic.
Image

Source: Created using Microsoft Excel. Nobody predicted anything less than an above average year. That's the first time that's happened. In this case I'm using a combination of both ACE and storm count thresholds to determine the activity classifications.
Image

Based on the individual guesses, here's a probability of exceedance chart for ACE. Using the guesses to map out probabilities, the Storm2K poll suggests that 2024 has about a 97% chance of exceeding the ACE total from last year. The odds of topping 2017 are about 1 in 4, and the odds of topping 2005 are about 1 in 10, based on the Storm2k guesses:

Source: Created using Python.
Image
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Re: 2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2024 5:51 am

Splited from the poll thread to make this new sticky thread about the final stats of the poll. Again, thanks to TheAustinMan for doing them. This thread will be open for the members to comment about the poll stats.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2024 9:50 pm

Apart from the stats about the numbers at the poll, there are also the stats about the ACE and how is the average and I know USTropics will come soon with those final stats on that.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

#4 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Jun 04, 2024 8:28 am

TheAustinMan wrote:And that does it for this year's Storm2K Atlantic hurricane season forecast poll. A total of 111 users participated in this poll, with the most first-day participation since 2007 and the most total participation since 2013. It's also the first time the poll has had over 100 participants since 2016, nearly a decade ago.

The average storm counts for this year's edition was 23.2 / 11.9 / 5.7, with around 204 ACE. These values are the highest in the 21-year history of the Storm2K poll, reflecting the worryingly high expectations for this year's tropical activity amid record heat in the Atlantic and a cool neutral/La Nina ENSO state. The mean number of named storms beat the previous record by 3 storms, and the mean number of hurricanes beat the previous record by 1.5.

Historically, comparable years to the Storm2k average counts include seasons like 1933, 1995, 2010, and 2017.

If we take the middle 50% of guesses, the Storm2K "ensemble" projects 21-25 named storms, 10-13 hurricanes, and 5-7 major hurricanes, with 190-220 ACE.

Storm2K's average for this year was quite close to the average of agency forecasts compiled by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (23/11/5 with 206 ACE), though it's worth noting that many of the Storm2k guesses preceded these agency forecasts. It's pretty neat that as a collective we produce estimates consistent with major agencies.

There is strong consensus for an exceptionally active year. An overwhelming majority of users (over 90%) predicted values that would qualify "extremely active" in the Climate Prediction Center's season activity definitions, and there were no predictions that would be considered "near normal" or "below normal". This is the first time this has happened in the poll's history. Never in the history of the poll has "extremely active" characterized such a large majority of user predictions.

In general, forecasts were remarkably consistent during the two months the poll was active. The average climatology-based ACE for all guesses on March 10 was 204, and the average for all guesses after that was... 205. At no point did the 7-day moving average for climatology-based ACE dip below 170. Guesses were also fairly similar among the usergroups.

Hopefully, the season will not be as active or impactful as anticipated (2006 was the last time the poll was anywhere near as aggressive...), but thus far it does look like this could be a bad season. As always, stay prepared and up to date on the tropics.

Source: Created using Microsoft Excel. Hurricane Idalia is the background on this year's poll summary graphic.
https://i.imgur.com/OFSXBZ4.png

Source: Created using Microsoft Excel. Nobody predicted anything less than an above average year. That's the first time that's happened. In this case I'm using a combination of both ACE and storm count thresholds to determine the activity classifications.
https://i.imgur.com/ENtoc8C.png

Based on the individual guesses, here's a probability of exceedance chart for ACE. Using the guesses to map out probabilities, the Storm2K poll suggests that 2024 has about a 97% chance of exceeding the ACE total from last year. The odds of topping 2017 are about 1 in 4, and the odds of topping 2005 are about 1 in 10, based on the Storm2k guesses:

Source: Created using Python.
https://i.imgur.com/DKvM8Mw.png


Awesome graphics. Can the s2k numbers as a group do better than NHC and CSU? We will see.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 07, 2024 12:27 pm

USTropics, do you have the final ACE average of the 2024 poll from the members that posted ACE numbers?

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Re: 2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

#6 Postby StormWeather » Sun Jun 16, 2024 8:15 pm

Speaking of predictions, the average numbers for all of the agencies that put out predictions is 22/11/5.

I calculated it myself.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

#7 Postby USTropics » Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:47 pm

Here is the final breakdown for the Storm2k 2024 season predictions (average of all member forecasts, n = 111)
Total storms: 23
Hurricanes: 12
Major Hurricanes: 6
ACE: 204

This is a graph that compares Storm2k average to all institutions/organizations that have posted through May:
Image
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Re: 2024 Storm2k Numbers Poll final stats

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 21, 2024 1:02 pm

Thank you as always, for the complete stats of the poll. Extending the thanks to TheAustinMan, that also does great work crunching the numbers.
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