Surface trough east of the Bahamas (Is INVEST 92L)

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LarryWx
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#41 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jun 16, 2024 12:50 pm

The 12Z Euro is weaker than the prior 3 runs with an open wave at hour 108. The associated pretty unimpressive rain is headed toward N SC/NC.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#42 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jun 16, 2024 12:56 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is weaker than the prior 3 runs with an open wave at hour 108. The associated pretty unimpressive rain is headed toward N SC/NC.


With all the models still keying in on initial development well east of the vort feature I posted about, it'll probably wind up being a transient feature. Until it dampens out, it'll still be something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#43 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jun 16, 2024 1:00 pm

AJC3 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is weaker than the prior 3 runs with an open wave at hour 108. The associated pretty unimpressive rain is headed toward N SC/NC.


With all the models still keying in on initial development well east of the vort feature I posted about, it'll probably wind up being a transient feature. Until it dampens out, it'll still be something to keep an eye on.


The 12Z Euro was ~100-200 miles E of its respective positions of the 3 prior 0Z/12Z runs fwiw. It ended up as hardly anything with unimpressive rain even up in the Carolinas.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#44 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jun 16, 2024 1:26 pm

LarryWx wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is weaker than the prior 3 runs with an open wave at hour 108. The associated pretty unimpressive rain is headed toward N SC/NC.


With all the models still keying in on initial development well east of the vort feature I posted about, it'll probably wind up being a transient feature. Until it dampens out, it'll still be something to keep an eye on.


The 12Z Euro was ~100-200 miles E of its respective positions of the 3 prior 0Z/12Z runs fwiw. It ended up as hardly anything with unimpressive rain even up in the Carolinas.


As the afternoon has worn on, that western feature has become less distinct, with that convective band along its southern flank dissipating. Based on the movement of the low cloud lines, you can also see a lot more convergence going on a few hundred miles to the E-ENE. The model guidance suite likely has the area of initial development pegged.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#45 Postby floridasun » Sun Jun 16, 2024 3:10 pm

i think because part of front that not helping and shear in area moisture taking alway by front to ne of area
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#46 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jun 16, 2024 5:25 pm

This system vaguely reminds me of TS Beryl in 2012, at least in terms of track.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 16, 2024 6:53 pm

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-
northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the
southeast United States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#48 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jun 16, 2024 11:32 pm

Based on the weaker trend today including the brand new 0Z model consensus, it wouldn’t surprise me if the NHC were to lower the 7 day 30% lemon to 20%. I’ve seen enough to feel confident that there won’t be a TC from this. The 0Z ICON, GFS, CMC, and UKMET have no TC from it.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#49 Postby kevin » Mon Jun 17, 2024 5:05 am

06z GFS has a TC forming within 48 hours.

Image
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (0/30)

#50 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 17, 2024 5:53 am

kevin wrote:06z GFS has a TC forming within 48 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/wmDdUOJ.png

Yesterday it was Jax, and now it's even further north, which is a result of the intensity it's seeing; small system could ramp up, so we cant completely write it off, although with that ridge sitting there, it does seem too far north. Looking at the moisture regardless of what develops, its looking wet later in the week, sofla beware in case we get caught in another moisture feed, completely different setup this time but the potential for 3+ is there. Our friends north of the lake could use the rain.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (10/30)

#51 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:57 am

kevin wrote:06z GFS has a TC forming within 48 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/wmDdUOJ.png


But now unlike earlier no other model has anything even close to a TC, the GFS runs are mostly not as strong as they were, the trend is further east (go back and compare to earlier runs for the same time), and GEFS mean is less active/not as much qpf. This is starting to look to me like GFS convective feedback fakeness. I’d lower the chance. I don’t think this will generate a TC. It is still at 30% for the 7 day and now 10% for 2 day due to getting closer. At least they don’t have the 7 day rising. If they thought this was going to result in TCG, it would be rising as we get closer.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (10/30)

#52 Postby StPeteMike » Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:17 am

Agree with you LarryWx. GFS is the only one giving this any type of development, most other models keep it disorganized and not closed while traveling west and then north.

Seems like the GOM/West Caribbean will be the active areas for at least the next month.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (10/30)

#53 Postby sponger » Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:00 am

I would not write off anything until we get farther into the week. Shear in the area is decreasing and the water is plenty warm. I did enjoy the Saturday GFS model stuff but I never worry until the Euro concurs and that has yet to happen.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (10/30)

#54 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:17 am

sponger wrote:I would not write off anything until we get farther into the week. Shear in the area is decreasing and the water is plenty warm. I did enjoy the Saturday GFS model stuff but I never worry until the Euro concurs and that has yet to happen.


1. I'm not "writing it off" (which to me means 0% chance) but rather I'm predicting it won't become a TD due to very low chances in my mind. Not 0% but very low....say 10% or so as of now. Whereas I earlier thought it truly had a 30% chance, I think the 30% is now much too high based on model consensus trends.

2. But the Euro actually did have a TD on some Saturday runs before becoming weaker on Sunday runs. That's a big reason I was agreeing with the 30% then.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (10/30)

#55 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 11:16 am

Ehh, my take might be 0/20 and that's being gracious. The only way I could possibly see anything come of this were if one of the small sheared surface eddies were to slide SW to about 25N and be small enough to find the tiniest of Goldilocks environments to allow it to sustain itself while essentially sliding westward at a fairly slow clip. Over all shear just seems overly hostile at this point.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (10/30)

#56 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:02 pm

TCPOD:

SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 18/1800Z A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 18/1330Z C. 19/0815Z
D. 26.0N 65.0W D. 26.5N 69.0W
E. 18/1730Z TO 18/2100Z E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA EAST OF BAHAMAS IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (10/30)

#57 Postby Jr0d » Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:08 pm

There is a feature near 27N 72W that was well west of the main feature near 27N 63W.

It is moving west at pretty good pace, my estimate is 20mph+.

No convection with the further west feature, just an open wave with no convection. My amateur guess if it stays like this it will make it to north Central Florida and will bring an increase chance of thunderstorm Wednesday/Thursday.

If it manages to get some sustained convection then it will likely go further north...again just my amateur opinion.

The main feature has some convection with little Eddy's and looks almost stationary to me...but absolutely no signs of trying to organize. It is telling the models and ensembles(except the GFS) have backed off significant development.
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Re: Low pressure forecast to form in the Southwestern Atlantic (10/30)

#58 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:36 pm

Definitely have a “swirl” to watch now on satellite. It’s not much, but does appear to be a low-level low (absent of almost all convection)
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Re: Surface trough east of the Bahamas (10/30)

#59 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:50 pm

2 PM:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and
an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development of this system during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United
States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Surface trough east of the Bahamas (10/30)

#60 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 17, 2024 1:41 pm

Jr0d wrote: There is a feature near 27N 72W that was well west of the main feature near 27N 63W.

It is moving west at pretty good pace, my estimate is 20mph+.

No convection with the further west feature, just an open wave with no convection. My amateur guess if it stays like this it will make it to north Central Florida and will bring an increase chance of thunderstorm Wednesday/Thursday.

If it manages to get some sustained convection then it will likely go further north...again just my amateur opinion.

The main feature has some convection with little Eddy's and looks almost stationary to me...but absolutely no signs of trying to organize. It is telling the models and ensembles(except the GFS) have backed off significant development.

It's looking juicy later in the week, The question is where does it all set up, and that is a big unknown. This is all so typical of June but just lots of it...weak systems, and now we have the gyre that is going to flood Houston (they flood way too much).
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